Scouting The Big Four – Germany

This is the first of four articles looking at the World Cup favourites and focusing on their key players, starting line-up and prospects of lifting the trophy. First up is Germany, the 2002 finalists and semi-finalists in 2006 and 2010.

How they qualified

Germany breezed through qualification, only dropping points in the 4-4 draw with Sweden. They were also the overall top scorers across European qualification with 36 points. A year ago everything pointed towards a strong run in the World Cup for Loew’s men, Bayern and Dortmund were in the Champions League final and the national team was cruising through qualification, fast forward a year and the core of Loew’s team are struggling to come back from injury or in poor form going into the big tournament. Will the Germans be able to turn it around come June 16th?

Weather conditions

Germany were handed a tough draw is term of the weather. A midday kick-off in their opening game at Salvador will see the temperature peak at around 26℃ on the Brazilian coast. Their remaining two games will be played in the heat of the northeast at Fortaleza and Recife. The final game is an early kick-off and temperatures will reach 28℃. With a relatively young and talented squad Germany may be able to work around the difficult weather conditions, but the draw has not been kind to them.

Starting lineup

4-2-3-1: GK Neuer, RB Lahm, CB Mertesacker, CB Humels, LB Boateng, CM Kroos, CM Schweinsteiger, AM Ozil, RM Muller, LM Schrule, CF Gotze.

The German starting line-up is probably the most difficult to predict with the core of the side from Euro 2012 either coming back from injury or in poor form. Barring any setbacks from their respective injuries, goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, captain Phillipp Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger are sure starters. With Neuer in goal and Boateng assured of one of the centre-back spots or the left-back role if both Per Mertesacker and Mat Hummels are chosen at center-back. The right-back spot is an interesting one as captain Lahm could be fielded there as he was at the Euros and previous World Cups, or as with his transition to center midfield for Bayern, Loew may decide to follow suit and keep the Munich core together and play his captain alongside Schweinsteiger in the middle of the park. If this happens then versatile midfielder Kevin Grosskreutz may get fielded at right-back.

If Lahm is fielded at right-back it leaves a spot open in central midfield, Loew may again look to use the good team understanding between the Bayern boys and play Kroos alongside Schweinsteiger or Sami Khedira could regain his place as the holding midfielder having just returned from a long injury lay-off. Ozil will start as the a central attacking midfielder. Despite patchy club form and injuries over a slightly tougher domestic campaign than Ozil is used to, he will be one of the first names on the team sheet. Since bursting onto the scene at World Cup 2010 he has become integral to the national team and Loew has built the national team around his talents.

The final three attacking positions are possibly the hardest to predict. Reus, who fell to injury in the friendly against Armenia, will need to be replaced by Schurle or Podolski on the left-flank. Whilst ever-present Muller, who started every game during qualifying, should be deployed on the right, despite a lack of club game time and being mainly fielded as a number 10 for Bayern Munich, Loew loves Muller and he should hold onto his place on the right. Klose is presumably the starter up front as the lone striker but he will be 36 and not the force he once was, a role as super sub would be the most logical fit but with no heir apparent, Klose may be asked to lead the line once again for his country. The wildcard could be Gotze, he has played in the false nine position before, and with Reus, Muller and Ozil alongside him, the four were able to play ‘total football’ interchanging positions throughout the game. Gotze got four goals in qualifying, the same as Klose, and could set to battle it out for a starting spot in Brazil.

Penalty taker: Ozil

Fantasy breakdown

Germany’s progression in the tournament will depend on how their key players overcome injuries and lack of match fitness, Germany are one of the few international teams with the depth of talent to fill in for injuries but even this is being stretched. Stalwarts of the German side like Schweinsteiger and Klose have endured continuous injuries over the past year and may not be at their best, whilst other key members Neuer, Lahm and Khedira are recovering from injuries still. The Germans still have talented players, and with only Portugal to rival them in Group G, they should at the very least make the last 16.

The German backline has faltered of late. Typically solid, the German defence normally produces the Fantasy points for managers, but without Khedira shielding the defence they have conceded a lot of sloppy goals recently, though games against goal-shy Ghana and USA could help them produce defensive points once again. Boateng, Neuer and Lahm are the only certainties, providing Neuer and Lahm recover from injuries as expected. Lahm could be fielded as defensive midfielder and this would likely decrease the chances of attacking returns.

Mesut Ozil, was top scorer in qualification with eight goals. Known as “king of the assist” whilst at Real Madrid, Ozil produced just three during qualifying. Having endured a mixed season at Arsenal, Ozil will be looking to bounce back for the national team.  Ozil is still on spot-kick duties. Having scored one in the Euros, he notched twice more from the spot during qualifiers to further boost his Fantasy appeal.

Thomas Muller just has a habit of scoring goals, he always seems to be in the right place at the right time, scoring four times during qualification to take his tally to 17 international goals. Not just a goalscorer, Muller led the team for assists with seven and is one of Loew’s favourites, playing in nine of the 10 qualifiers. Likely classified as a midfielder but playing further forward and with a knack for scoring goals, Muller could be like an extra forward for your Fantasy team playing in a midfield spot.

Mario Gotze is the wildcard. He will be relatively fresh having been used sparing by Bayern this season he can be fielded anywhere across the attacking midfield three but the reason he could be valuable to Fantasy managers is Loew’s use of him as a centre-forward in the false 9 role, especially as the only recognised striker in the squad, Klose, has struggled with injuries for the past year.