La Liga to Premier League Successes And Failures

Chelsea’s new target man Diego Costa has already made his way into 25.4% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) teams, but many others are still waiting out to see how he adapts to the Premier League. A burning question is whether or not Costa will replicate his exploits of the La Liga season gone by. His success or failure depends on several factors, one of them being his ability to adapt to the Premier League. Just how difficult is it for an attacking player to adapt to the Premier League, coming from La Liga? The best way to answer this question is to take a look at how previous players coming from Spain’s first division fared in their first seasons in England. 

The Stats

To make the analysis simpler, players are assessed based on their ‘key points’. For midfielders, each goal is worth five key points (KP) and each assist three KP, whereas for forwards, each goal is worth four KP and each assist three KP (the same as the FPL scoring system).

Table 1: Stats of last season played in La Liga.

Player     Minutes played  Goals  Assists  Key Points  Key points per minute (KP/90)
Negredo          3031             25         4            112                       3.33
Soldado           2926            24         4            108                       3.32
Ozil                 2081            10        13            89                        3.85
Aguero            2668             20         2             86                        2.90
Michu             3283             15         3             84                        2.30
Mata               2577             8          12            76                        2.65
Cazorla           3241              9           9            72                        2.00
Silva               2327              8           7             61                        2.36

Table 2: Stats of first season played in Barclay’s Premier League.

Player     Minutes played  Goals  Assists  Key Points  Key points per minute (KP/90)
Negredo          1818             9          3             45                          2.23
Soldado           2019            6          5             39                          1.74
Ozil                 2221            5          9             52                          2.11
Aguero            2667            23         8            116                         3.91
Michu             3016            18          2             96                          2.86
Mata               2639             6         13            69                           2.35
Cazorla           3461            12         11            93                          2.42
Silva               2563              4           7            41                          1.44

Interpreting the Stats

Alvaro Negredo struggled for game time while competing with Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko for a starting berth, managing to play only 1818 minutes in the entire season. Although his performances were not anywhere close to those in his last season in La Liga, he has not done terribly either. Negredo’s case is perhaps the most ambiguous as it can be argued that competing for the starting berth against the likes of Aguero and Dzeko could have affected how quickly he was able to adapt.

Roberto Soldado suffered the most among the listed players. With 34.8 minutes per attempt, 25.9% shot accuracy and 10.3% goal conversion rate, his goal threat was dismal at best, causing his KP/90 minutes to drop by a whopping 47.7%. Unlike Negredo, he was a nailed on starter until a series of poor performances pushed him down in the pecking order.

Mesut Ozil suffered almost as much as Soldado as his KP/90min fell by 45.3%. His downfall was mostly due to his poor goal threat, registering 74 minutes per attempt and a 16.7% conversion rate. Ozil’s distribution and creativity, however, were quite impressive as he boasted an overall passing accuracy of 88%, crossing success rate of 35% and also created a chance every 29.2 minutes. To put that in perspective, Steven Gerrard (most assists last season) had an overall passing accuracy of 86%, crossing success rate of 27.8% and created a chance every 45.4 minutes.

Sergio Aguero racked up 23 goals in his debut campaign, with his last goal resulting in a dramatic league win to cap off a sensational season. Aguero settled immediately and built on his exploits of the previous season as his KP/90 improved from 2.90 to 3.91. While maintaining the goal threat that saw him notch 20 goals in La Liga in his last season at Atletico Madrid, Aguero also stepped up his creativity to claim eight assists, bringing huge returns to the Fantasy managers who invested in him.

Michu was unfamiliar to many Fantasy football players but took no time to settle in the Premier League. He scored on a consistent basis, totalling 18 goals by the end of the season, fifth highest overall and second highest among midfielders. The most impressive improvement was in his goal threat, as his minutes per goal dropped from 218.9 to only 167.6.

Juan Mata also settled in with ease as his debut season at Chelsea was statistically almost identical to his last season at Valencia. Mata’s KP/90 dropped slightly, from 2.65 to 2.35. Quite impressively, he also notched 13 assists in his debut season, only bettered by David Silva (15 assists).

Santi Cazorla was yet another player who wasted no time in settling in, finishing his debut season with 12 goals and 11 assists, displaying both dangerous goal threat and creativity. Cazorla was at the forefront of Arsenal’s creativity, completing 2,145 of his 2,471 attempted passes and creating a whopping 95 chances throughout the season. Unsurprisingly his KP/90 rose from 2.00 to 2.42.

David Silva’s KP/90 fell from 2.36 to 1.44 in a debut season where he managed to find the back of the net as few as four times. Silva’s stats for his first season are clear in confirming that, although he had a decent season, he took his time to settle into the Premier League.

Of the players mentioned, only Ozil, Soldado and Silva failed miserably in settling in their new environments. Negredo’s dip in form was significant, but to be fair, it is never easy to settle in right away with such a lack in game time and such stubborn competition from teammates. Cazorla settled in right away and maintained almost the same level of performance, whereas Aguero, Mata and Michu built further on their exploits of their respective last seasons in La Liga.

What About Costa?

With 27 strikes and five assists last term, Costa led Atletico Madrid to their first La Liga title in 18 years. He also scored 8 goals and provided one assist in nine appearances in the Champions League to help Atletico Madrid progress all the way to the final. Although his poor World Cup performances may have some Fantasy managers worried, it may just be that he is one of those players who fail at the international stage despite being sensational at clubs stage; and Fantasy football is all about the club stage.

Based on the debut-season performances of other players who transferred from La Liga to the Premier League in recent years, it is more likely than not that Costa will adapt quickly and deliver immediate returns, especially due to easy fixtures, which see Chelsea face Burnley (away), and Leicester, Swansea and Aston Villa at home in their first six fixtures. He has already notched two goals and three assists in four pre-season appearances, giving managers more confidence in their choice of drafting him into their squads. It would not be unrealistic to expect a 20+ goal haul from him in the upcoming season, and may soon become essential.