Exploding The Differential Myth

This is the first in an occasional series of articles I plan to post over the season, de-bunking commonly held tenets of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) strategy. First up: the differential.

A differential is a player with low ownership, either in your mini-league or across the FPL universe who, if he scores well, will propel your team up the rankings ahead of teams without him. You choose the differential in preference to similarly priced but more commonly-owned players with the same long-term points potential. A simple concept for sure… but is it valid?

The Essential Differential

First let’s look at the situation where the differential is not only valid but essential. Imagine your team is 30 points behind your mini-league leader with three Gameweeks to go. You both have Wayne Rooney, the top scoring player in the game (stay with me folks!) In this situation you might choose to drop Rooney to get Sergio Aguero (you’re with me on this one), recently returned from injury, in the hope that Aguero (who you will captain) will go crazy and outscore Rooney. Your only way to catch the league leader is to play different, high-scoring players – without them you are certain to lose. Sticking with Rooney and scoring exactly what your rival scores does nothing for you. Of course, the differential can backfire – you can lose ground – but this is the risk you take to give yourself the opportunity to win the league.

That’s the only situation in which the differential is useful. The rest of the time you should simply choose the player you think will score the most points – yes, it’s that simple. There are several reasons why. First of all, the differential concept depends on week-to-week point variation between two similarly priced players with similar points potential. Aguero might outscore Rooney in the final three Gameweeks, but over a longer period their relative production will average out. The power of the differential is eroded over longer periods. Second is a much more fundamental idea; that being differentiated from your opponents is as simple as having different players from them. You can pretty much guarantee that nobody will have the same players as you – that’s certainly true in your mini-league. Therefore, you already have differentials in your team, probably many of them.

The High Ownership Differential

Let’s explore this differential idea further. The highest-ownership player in your squad might have 40% ownership across the FPL universe. But remember that 40% ownership means that 60% don’t have that player. Now let’s consider your next highest-owned player – let’s say at 30% ownership. The chance that another team has both of your two highest-owned players is 40% x 30% – i.e. 12%, meaning that 88% of teams have none or only one of them. Add in your third highest-owned player at 20% ownership, and the compounded differential is around 2% – now 98% teams have at least one of the thee different from you. You can see where I’m going with this. Differentiation doesn’t have to be captured in a single player, but comes from all the players in your team. The idea that a single player, selected for low ownership when compared to other teams, and assessed over the course of a season, will give you the opportunity to rise above other teams, purely based on low ownership, is nonsense. I’ll say it again – pick the players you think will score the most points. The differentials will take care of themselves.