The objective of this exercise is to predict the attacking potential per team and their key player in the next six fixtures. The idea comes from a previous article submitted by Footballoholic called “Best chance of goals over the next six”, which looked at the goals conceded by each team’s next six opponents. This article will use this research and combine it with the goalscoring form of each team.
Attacking Potential Explained
My calculations are based on the average goals scored (GS) home and away in the past six matches as well as the average goals conceded, once again differentiated for home and away. I’ve then combined these to find an attacking potential rating over the next six matches. In addition I’ve looked at the key players for each side, based on their goal involvement.
Results
Teams’ attacking potential over the next six
MCI 11.6
SOT 11.1
LIV 10.4
WBA 9.8
NEW 9.5
CHE 9.1
STO 8.9
SWA 7.9
QPR 7.8
WHM 7.7
TOT 7.6
EVE 7.4
ARS 7.1
MUN 7.1
SUN 6.2
CPL 6.1
BUR 4.8
LEI 4.7
HUL 3.8
AVL 1.2
25 best players for attacking potential (Player/ % involvement in their team’s goals / attacking potential)
Sergio Agüero 55% 6.3
Raheem Sterling 54% 5.6
Saido Berahino 54% 5.3
Graziano Pellè 43% 4.8
Gylfi Sigurdsson 53% 4.2
Dusan Tadic 35% 3.8
Nacir Chadli 50% 3.8
Alexis Sánchez 53% 3.8
Victor Moses 42% 3.7
Charlie Austin 47% 3.7
Angel Di María 47% 3.3
Leighton Baines 44% 3.3
Diego Costa 36% 3.2
Cesc Fábregas 36% 3.2
Jordan Henderson 31% 3.2
Chris Brunt 31% 3.0
Mame Biram Diouf 33% 3.0
Diafra Sakho 37% 2.8
Jamie Vardy 60% 2.8
Papiss Cissé 29% 2.8
Steven Fletcher 42% 2.6
Stewart Downing 32% 2.4
Leonardo Ulloa 50% 2.3
Wilfried Bony 29% 2.3
Erik Lamela 29% 2.2
Conclusions
Liverpool’s Sterling has been sold heavily in recent weeks. But this research suggests sellers are being too hasty. On the basis of opposition and attacking form Sterling is still set to be involved in around a goal a game over the next six games. Manchester City look the best bet for goals over the coming weeks, with Sergio Aguero the best option. The Argentine looks an ideal captain candidate for the foreseeable future.
As with Footballoholic’s research this analysis also suggests that Chelsea may not score as many goals as people believe. Costa and Fabregas are ranked low here in spite of good fixtures on paper. Instead, Southampton’s Pelle could emerge as a better source of points despite a dire run of fixtures.
9 years, 5 months agoExcellent follow up Footballoholic's research. Starting to really regret selling Sterling now.