In an attempt to analyse the fixtures from an attacker’s perspective I have looked at the opponents each team faces over the coming weeks and the likelihood of scoring goals against them. For this I have focused on the average goals conceded per match (AGC) of all teams.
Average Goals Conceded Explained
I have added together the total AGC values of each team’s next six opponents to show which have the best and worst forthcoming fixtures from an attacking point of view. Each AGC value is tailored as to whether the team has conceded home or away.
Taking top-placed Newcastle as an example in the next six, they face QPR (average of 2.8 goals conceded per away match by QPR), whm (average of 1 goal conceded per home match by West Ham), bur (1.5), CHE (1.33), ars (1.2), SUN (2.4) giving Newcastle’s next six opponents a total score of 10.23 over those fixtures.
Results
Based on the score for each team, I have listed them in order from easiest fixtures to toughest.
1. Newcastle United 10.23
2. Swansea City 9.80
3. Leicester City 9.47
4. West Ham United 9.27
5. Liverpool 9.13
6. Aston Villa 8.87
7. Queens Park Rangers 8.77
8. Southampton 8.60
9. Sunderland 8.47
10. Tottenham Hotspur 8.03
11. Stoke City 7.93
12. Everton 7.87
13. Manchester City 7.70
14. Hull City 7.63
15. West Bromwich Albion 7.63
16. Arsenal 7.60
17. Chelsea 7.33
18. Manchester United 7.27
19. Crystal Palace 7.27
20. Burnley 7.13
Conclusion
While on paper Chelsea have one of the kindest runs, their opponents in the next six are actually relatively stingy in terms of conceding goals. Doubling up on Chelsea attackers may not be the best policy. West Brom, Chelsea’s next opponents at Stamford Bridge, have only conceded five goals away from home. Diego Costa still looks like a good prospect, but is it really worth investing in Eden Hazard as well?
At the top of the table Newcastle clearly have a strong chance of goals over the next six. This makes cheap options such as their attacking midfielder Mousssa Sissoko a strong option.
Investment in Swansea attacking assets also looks key, with Wilfried Bony and Gylfi Sigurdsson offering the best route into their strong goalscoring potential.
9 years, 5 months ago
Interesting analysis - shows that a set of fixtures on paper may not actually be that strong when you dig deeper into the stats. Chelsea's position is a real eye opener.
Certainly looking to get Sigurdsson back in after reading this.