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Budget Forward Options

A cheap third forward is one way of freeing up cash to maximise the number of premium-priced players in the rest of your team.  In this article I look at how some of the main options for the budget striker spot have fared so far. All Fantasy Premier League (FPL) prices accurate as of November 23.

Charlie Austin

FPL points: 53

Price: 5.8

Initial ownership: 2%

Austin started the season badly, missing a penalty in the opening game with Hull. His form improved, though, and he now sits fifth in the forward rankings, having bagged six goals so far.  With returns in four successive weeks from Gameweeks 8-11, his ownership trebled in Gameweek 12.  There was no immediate reward for the new owners, though, as he blanked last time out against Newcastle. QPR have a series of decent home fixtures running into the new year so Austin still looks ripe for further investment.

Bojan Krkic

FPL points: 21

Price: 4.9

Initial ownership: 16%

Bojan was selected in over 500,000 teams at the start of the season after notching several times for Stoke in pre-season. A total of just four points in the first nine Gameweeks tells us all we need to know about the success of that choice and his ownership has since slipped to 3%.  However, he has delivered returns in the last two matches, suggesting he may yet become a decent option for those who take a punt on him.

Steven Naismith

FPL points: 42

Price: 5.0

Initial ownership: 8%

Naismith started the season with a bang, scoring in the first three Gameweeks to net an average score of 8.0 points per game (ppg). With his attractive starting price of 5.0 he became the first major budget forward bandwagon of the season, gaining 760,000 owners in Gameweeks 3 and 4 and jumped to 36% ownership.  Since Gameweek 3, however, he’s only delivered one more goal and an average of just 2.0 ppg.

Leonardo Ulloa

FPL  points: 48

Price: 5.4

Initial ownership: 1%

Ulloa was not a name that came up often in pre-season squad discussions as he was untested at this level and Leicester had a very unpromising initial set of fixtures.  Despite this, he scored five goals in the first five games. The fifth goal came in his brace against Manchester United, which prompted over 600,000 people to buy him in the next two Gameweeks (probably many as a swap from Naismith). Since Gameweek 5, Leicester have had much easier fixtures on paper but they have struggled and Ulloa hasn’t scored, averaging a paltry 1.7 ppg.  Those with the access and inclination to look at the FFS members area stats will have noted in Gameweek 5 that Ulloa had an incredibly high shot conversion rate that, at the time, looked unsustainable, and so it has proved.

Saido Berahino

FPL points: 58

Price: 6.0

Initial ownership: 3%

Berahino started the season with a brace but then followed that with four blanks. He found a rich vein of form between Gameweeks 6 and 9, when he scored five in four games, to gain over 500,000 new owners. He is currently the fourth highest scoring forward in the FPL game and at his peak was owned by 22% of teams. Since Gameweek 9, however, he has delivered three successive two-point hauls and nervous managers have already started discarding him.

Diafra Sakho

FPL points: 51

Price: 5.9

Initial ownership: 0%

Sakho passed totally under the radar at the start of the season, having been purchased with little fanfare from Metz in the French second tier. With goals in five successive games from Gameweeks 5-9, playing in an attacking West Ham team, he looked a very good option and his ownership steadily increased.  Unfortunately the shoulder injury he suffered in Gameweek 9 has kept him out of two of the last three games. West Ham have favourable upcoming fixtures so owners will be hoping he returns swiftly and carries on where he left off.

Ayoze Perez

FPL points: 32

Price: 4.9

Initial ownership: 0%

With under 6,000 owners at the start of the season it’s fair to say Ayoze wasn’t a name on many people’s lips at the start of the season. He duly delivered just seven points in the first eight games to remain anonymous until he suddenly bagged three in three in Gameweeks 9-11.  After significant investment last week he blanked against QPR at the weekend. We will see how the return of Papiss Cisse affects his game time.

Danny Ings

FPL points: 30

Price: 5.7

Initial ownership: 2%

At the start of the season Burnley looked an attacking graveyard, having failed to score a single goal in Gameweeks 2-7. In addition, Ings missed the last three of those matches through injury. More recently Burnley and Ings seem to be finding form, with Ings having scored his first of the season in Gameweek 9 at Everton and then notching two from close range in the Gameweek 12 win at Stoke. In the short-term Burnley’s fixtures look favourable before they face a tricky spell from Gameweek 16 to 19.

Notable others who’ve had their moments this season: Harry Kane,  Samuel Eto’o, Steven Fletcher, Andreas Weimann, Fraizer Campbell, Nikica Jelavic.

Discussion

Naismith, Ulloa, Berahino, Austin and Sakho have all delivered respectable overall totals for their price tags so far this season, which are comparable to other popular choices at similar prices in defence and midfield.  The question is, can they keep up their rate of scoring, or even improve it?  Equally, will the others who’ve scored well recently (Ings, Ayoze, Bojan, Kane) prove to be long-term options?

With the players mentioned often scoring in bursts, surely a good manager could switch to the form players to maximise points.  That works fine in theory and with hindsight you could get a total of 99 points by selecting first Naismith then Ulloa, Sakho, Austin and Bojan if the trigger was made a week after their first goal in a run of good form. As ever, the difficulty is in knowing when to get rid of a player and when to hold.  I strongly suspect that many have failed to do this.

The pattern in the scoring so far is decent scores over two or three weeks, which prompts a surge in ownership, coinciding with the start of a miserable run of blanks.  Owners soon grow frustrated and transfer out the player.  For example, based on the initial ownership and transfer figures, the most popular composite budget selection would have been:

  • Bojan Gameweeks 1-2 (2, 0pts)
  • Naismith Gameweeks 3-5 (6, 1, 0pts)
  • Ulloa Gameweeks 6-8 (2, 2, 1pts)
  • Berahino Gameweeks 9-11 (7, 2, 2pts)
  • Austin Gameweek 12 (2pts)

That gives a miserable total of 27 points with only two goals and a cost of four transfers.  You’d have scored more points than that by just sticking with the same budget forward for the whole season.  Yes, even Bojan would have scored more if you could have mustered seven points from your bench in the five games he didn’t play in!

Conclusions

Budget forwards offer a viable strategy for getting maximum value from your team. To succeed you will need to be a good judge of class and form. Whatever you do though, don’t follow the overall FPL crowd in making your transfer.  So far this season, by the time the masses have realised a player is delivering good scores he is about to run dry for a while.

8 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    I usually shun budget strikers but would be willing to get Austin. As you suggest though these type of players are the most likely to succumb to form and fixtures.

  2. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    "That gives a miserable total of 27 points with only two goals and a cost of four transfers. You’d have scored more points than that by just sticking with the same budget forward for the whole season."

    This about sums it up

    Austin GWs 1-2 (0)

    Austin to Naismith in GW3

    Naimsith GWs 3-9 (12)

    Naismith to Berahino

    Berahino GWs 9-11 (11)

    Berahino to Austin GW12

    Austin GW 12 (2)

    Total score 25

    Austin's score - 51

    1. The Non Flying Dutchman
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      I myself have gone Diouf, Naismith, Ulloa, Sakho.

      The way to look at it from my point of view (in hindsight) is to look at the strength of the midfield when choosing between the above.

      I would have drafted sakho a lot sooner if I watched match of the day more!

      For me Sakho is the standout option and barring extended injury I will continue to keep the faith if he blanks.

      Bojan would be an alternative though he comes with rotation risk.

    2. Sticky Mockwell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      I admire your persistence. I was going to write something in the article like 'but surely no-one will have done this as they will have given up on the budget option by now'. Clearly not! Hope Austin works out for you, he seems the best option at the moment

  3. Messi & fabregas
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    spot on in everything especially about team value

    i gained 0.3 from naismith, 0.2 from berahino and 0.1 from austin so far

  4. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    GW1-7: Jelavic 31 points
    GW6-9: Ulloa 7 points
    GW10-12: Berahino 6 points.

    I was pretty satisfied with Jelly's performance in the first 7 GWs, but he then missed the next 4 so I had to replace him.

    Ulloa was a big disappointment, but the switch to Berahino turned out to be a wasted transfer.

    The player I really wanted for GW10 was Sakho, but unfortunately he was injured.

    Scoring useful points for the team isn't the only reason for including one or two budget forwards - they can also act as enablers to strengthen the rest of the squad, and may spend some time on the bench if the rest of the squad is sufficiently strong.

    But your research does appear to show that making lots of transfers to keep getting the latest popular in-form budget striker is probably not advisable.

  5. Tomas Brolin ate all Depays
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    the problem with the budget 3rd striker is your always chasing after they have scored the points so when you buy them they have had a couple of good weeks and then they blank
    bojan - no points- switch to naismith who blanks - ulloa is flying lets buy him then blanks for 4 weeks - into sakho who blanks then berahino has had 3 good weeks lets bu him - blanks - everyone into austin after 2 good weeks and scores 2 points

    i havent had any budget strikers this year but would surely be better just to stick with a austin every week than change.

  6. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Which is why I've jsut brought in Kane instead of Austin.....hoping that it's start of a run not the end.