With Chelsea facing both Leicester and Arsenal in Gameweek 34, planning has already begun in order to take advantage of the season’s second double Gameweek. With Eden Hazard in most teams, the remaining two Chelsea slots are likely to be filled with either Diego Costa and a defender, or doubling up on their resolute defence, which already has 13 clean sheets this season. With this in mind this article will look in detail at Chelsea defenders’ potential as managers prepare for Gameweek 34.
Basic stats
Here we take a look at the basic stats for each Chelsea defender.
The first thing that stands out from this is that you don’t get any more nailed on than Branislav Ivanovic and John Terry. They’ve each played every minute of every Premier League game so far this season and this doesn’t look like stopping any time soon. One thing that is interesting is that while Ivanovic has a higher overall ownership he is owned by 13% less players inside the top 10,000 as of Gameweek 28. But is he worth the extra money over Terry.
Some of the key stats here for me are the consistent points per game (PPG) that Ivanovic has been able to keep up over the course of the season at 5.2. In comparison these are the PPG over the course of the season for other popular players – Eden Hazard (6.2), Alexis Sanchez (6.7), Sadio Mane (5.0), Victor Moses (3.9), Gylfi Sigurdsson (4.9), Stewart Downing (4.8).
A quick look at the other defenders shows that while Cesar Azpilcueta might not be as nailed on as Ivanovic and Terry he can certainly get decent points when he does play. In 669 less minutes this season he has managed to get 11 bonus points versus the 12 of Ivanovic. Similarly he has seen his points per game for the season hit 4.8, ahead of Terry (at 4.6) and only 0.4 behind Ivanovic. The one disadvantage of Azpilcueta is of course the fact that he could get rotated with Filipe Luis. While it has only generally been the odd game over the course of the season it is probably enough to put most off for the double Gameweek. Should anything happen to Luis in the near future though, Azpilcueta with a price tag of 6.0 could be a very nice differential who has the ability to score very good points.
Lastly I wanted to take a look at Kurt Zouma who has started creeping into teams and is currently a nice differential for those 6.1% of the top 10,000 players who currently own him. He looks a bargain at 4.7 with a current points per game of 5.0. With such low ownership he might be worth a thought, but with Nemanja Matic more than likely returning to the line-up next week he will probably be a risk too far. While he may get his fair share of minutes he will more than likely be rotated with Gary Cahill meaning you’ll never be convinced he will start both games in the double and will be taking up a very valuable spot.
Attacking Potential
The table below shows the Chelsea defenders’ attacking stats over the last 6 matches they’ve played in.
For those of us that frequent Fantasy Football Scout on a regular basis it may come as no surprise that Ivanovic looks the most attacking minded and he has a much higher record for goal attempts and minutes per attempt than the other options. When you look at goal attempts in the box, however, he has six which is an average of one per game and Terry actually comes in fairly close behind with four attempts. This may be good viewing for those that have stuck with Terry since his big hauls back in Gameweeks 17 and 18.
Luis is the most interesting one in this table. In the matches he has played he has had the most touches in the final third and has created chances at the same rate as Ivanovic. Where he falls down are his goal attempts versus the Serbian. At 5.3, should anything happen to Azpilicueta there is the potential for decent attacking returns and if he can up the amount of goal attempts he will be well on his way to being a very good Chelsea asset.
Is Ivanovic worth it?
Looking at Ivanovic in particular he is a player on the minds of a lot of the Fantasy Football Scout community at the moment. At 7.5 he is more expensive than a lot of our fourth and fifth midfielders. For some people the defence is usually an area used to free up funds and find good value points so I wanted to discuss whether Ivanovic is worth the price tag.
As we saw earlier in the article over the course of the season he has outscored some of the more popular mid-priced midfielders and isn’t too far behind the premium options. The table below shows his attacking potential versus some of the popular mid-priced midfielders over the last six games.
Here we can see that his touches in the final third are higher than Jordan Henderson and almost as many as Gylfi Sigurdsson. He also has the second highest number of penalty area touches which shows just how much he gets forward. Once again it is his goal attempts that make interesting reading. In the box he is only below Sigurdsson and Mane and equals or beats the rest. It’s clear that even with defensive duties Ivanovic has really good potential for attacking returns compared to some of our favourite midfielders.
Defenders v Midfielders Comparison
Our last table shows the attacking comparison with the popular premium-priced midfielders.
In this we can see that Ivanovic struggles to keep up with chances created, far behind even the lowest score of 16 from Christian Eriksen.
Even the penalty area touches are affected here with only Eriksen having fewer. The stat which once again stands out for me is the number of goal attempts inside the box. While overall attempts are lower, the ones inside the box are comparable with all the other players listed. Ivanovic has six shots inside the box versus seven for both Ozil and Silva. Similarly he has two more goal attempts inside the box over the last six games compared with Hazard and he has managed three more than Eriksen.
Conclusion
In conclusion I think that a Chelsea defender is probably a must for most people in the double Gameweek. With Costa being the only viable striker and most of us only sure of Hazard in midfield, it comes down to the likelihood of one or two of their defenders being in our teams come Gameweek 34.
I was toying with the idea of getting Ivanovic myself in time for the double and after looking at the stats above I think I’ve convinced myself enough to get him. Being a nailed on defender in a team that has kept 13 clean sheets in 27 games is a big plus. When you couple that with consistent points and great attacking potential I feel that Ivanovic is a great choice.
For those with Terry it may be too much of a sideways move, after all Terry is still registering a healthy number of attempts on goal and could quite easily score over the coming weeks. If money is tight then at 6.7 he remains a good option and could score well.
Zouma, Luis and Azpilcueta look good for points when they start but it would be a brave man who puts one in their team for the double if there are no injuries or suspensions to help out with the pick. Who will you opt for?
