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14 April 2015 28 comments
Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
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This article aims to consolidate on my previous article, which looked at Arsenal Attacking Options and how Mesut Ozil’s comeback from injury affected the side. For this article I will look at what effect Aaron Ramsey’s reintroduction to the Arsenal side has had on each of Arsenal’s attacking options and whether he is worth the investment ahead of their double Gameweek 37.

Player Overview

fig1

Sanchez remains the most popular and highly owned Arsenal player in the Fantasy Premier League game with an ownership of 30%, whilst also being the most expensive at 11.3. Olivier Giroud has risen in popularity due to his outstanding recent form and is the second most owned player with 20.4% ownership, followed by Santiago Cazorla and Aaron Ramsey at 14.8% and 11.1% respectively. Mesut Ozil continues to be a real differential at just 4.4% and could be a hidden gem for those trying to get one step ahead of their rivals.

Attacking Data

fig2

I have focused on data from the last four Gameweeks as it coincides with Aaron Ramsey’s return from injury.

Looking at the data above we can see that, since coming back from injury, Aaron Ramey has the highest Goal Involvement (55.6%) and has registered the second most chances created (eight) compared to team-mate Mesut Ozil (nine) whilst also becoming second highest for minutes per touch (1.0) and minutes per chance (43.3). Ramsey is also the third highest for goal attempts (eight), shots inside the box (seven) and shots on target (four) and his touches in the penalty area (17) and the final third (135) are also the third highest, with Alexis Sanchez (25, 160) and Olivier Giroud (37, 120) having more.

Interestingly, Sanchez’s stats seem to have significantly improved from his previous form from my previous article and he has registered the most goal attempts (14) and touches in the final third (160), whilst being second for shots inside the box (8) and shots on target (6) behind team-mate Olivier Giroud (nine and seven). He is also second for touches in the penalty area (25) but has created the fewest chances (four).

fig3

The data in the table above supports our initial analysis as Ramsey is almost on par with Santi Cazorla for second highest chances created per minute (0.024169 vs 0.026022) whilst remaining third highest for goal attempts per minute (0.024169), touches in the final third per minute (0.40786) and touches in the penalty area per minute (0.05136). Sanchez remains top for goal attempts per minute (0.044586) and minutes per chance (23.1) whilst being the second highest for touches in the penalty area per minute (0.07961) and touches in the final third (0.50955). Only Giroud has a higher rate of touches in the penalty area (0.10541) whilst Ozil has the highest rate of chances created (0.036885) and touches in the final third (0.58197).

The Rambo Effect

Much like the Ozil Effect, I aim to see whether Ramsey’s comeback has positively or negatively affected certain Arsenal attacking options.  I have compiled two tables of attacking data for the periods in which Ramsey recently did not start any games (Gameweek 25-28) and compared that with the period of games where he has recently hit form and started games (Gameweeks 29-32). This can be found in Figure 4 below.

fig4

By analysing the data above, we can see that the players which have benefited the most from Ramsey’s return seem to be Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud. We can see that Sanchez has registered a higher rate of goal attempts per minute with Ramsey on the field (0.04459 vs 0.03625) as well as his minutes per touch (1.1 vs 1.4) and his minutes per chance (28.3 vs 23.1). His touches in both the penalty area (0.07962 vs 0.07553) and the final third (0.50955 vs 0.38369) have also increased, though his rate of creating chances has declined (0.01274 vs 0.02115). Giroud has also seen a significant improvement in his performance, specifically the rate of touches in the penalty area (0.10541 vs 0.08287) and touches in the final third (0.34188 vs 0.28453), though his minutes per touch (1.5 vs 1.3) and minutes per chance (30.4 vs 24.4) have decreased slightly.

On the other hand, it seems like Mesut Ozil’s stats have worsened as a result of Ramsey’s comeback, as can be seen from a decreased rate of chances created (0.03689 vs 0.04928) and goal attempts (0.01639 vs 0.02609) in addition to a decreased rate of minutes per chance (62.8 vs  40.3) and penalty area touches (0.03689 vs 0.04348). However, his minutes per touch (0.9 vs 1.2) and touches in the final third (0.58197 vs 0.42609) have improved indicating that he is seeing a lot of the possession.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the reintroduction of Aaron Ramsey bodes well for Arsenal midfield options, especially Alexis Sanchez, as well as Olivier Giroud, whilst the Welshman has had a detrimental effect on the fantasy potential of Mesut Ozil. Looking ahead at Arsenal’s remaining fixtures, more specifically their double Gameweek 37, I would highly recommend transferring in Aaron Ramsey alongside Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud and feel that this trio of Arsenal attacking options have the highest potential for points.

28 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks for this. As a Ramsey owner since March 20 I can concur that drafting him in is a smart move.

    Your last article convinced me to ditch Sanchez and take a then punt on Ramsey....this article has convinced me to go for Giroud, Sanchez and Ramsey as my three Arsenal players in Gameweek 37 - should all remain injury free.

    1. Lucy.
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Yes, those are my 3 GW37 targets. 🙂

    2. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Cheers Jonty! Glad it proved useful 🙂

      1. Xhaka Kahn't
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 7 months ago

        Fantastic, well reasoned article! Thanks Jaff 🙂

  2. Lucy.
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Bravo Jaff, bravo.

  3. Kings of Lyon ★
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Great stuff! I want some Ars def coverage so I will have Ospina and probably Sanchez and Giroud

  4. Jimbo123
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Excellent stuff....interesting that Santi is matching / proving more worthwhile than Ozil since Rambo has returned.

    Nevertheless, Sanchez, Giroud & Rambo will be my 3 for 37

  5. Je suis le chat
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks Jaf, brill for a non member like me! Will hold onto Alexis and bring in Gru and Ramsey gw 35.

  6. Forza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Great article, although it doesn't make my Sanchez vs Giroud decision much easier!

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Of those two it has to be Giroud surely on cost alone. Ramsey and Giroud and a defender is another option I'd consider.

      1. Forza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 7 months ago

        You're right, plus if I keep Giroud I can stay well clear of the Remy situation and get Fabregas in for Sanchez instead.

  7. Lazarus Star
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks. Another great bit of analysis.

    I just shipped Ramsey out for Silva due to GW33 blank...but will be looking for a way to bring him and Sanchez or Giroud in for GW37.

  8. Camp No No
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    6614 FPL managers have brought Giroud in this round despite the fact that he has a blank GW! 😯 What insanity is this!?

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      could be alot of wildcarders planning ahead. Easy to bench at that price.

  9. Holy See
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Excellent stuff & cheers for this Jaff.

  10. AIRMILES
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    BBC's front page presently has Sterling's surname spelt as both Stirling and Sterling.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/

  11. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    I will not have Sanchez as I've decided to spread out my coverage and get Ospina

    Great work though again Jaffa

  12. GENERATION X
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    I have Ozil after the Sanchez injury - he has performed ok but I'd prefer Ramsey. Not my priority for a while though - GW37 is a long way away particularly with Ramsey's injury record. Also having Giroud is a better feeling - as any of the mids can strike gold but everything goes through the big Frenchman.

  13. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    I think some community articles should be member's only.

    1. Beavis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      I was thinking the exact same thing.

    2. HVT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      But does this kind of article encourage non members to pay up?
      An odd freebie does no harm, you see it in supermarkets all the time.
      -Tasters I think they call it.
      Fantastic work Jaffa, thanks for your efforts. I'm really trying to decide whether Sanchez is worth the outlay at 11.3 I'd expect Sanchez to be (c) material most weeks-he's not he's a gamble, I think Hazard at that price justifies his price and is a (c) option most weeks (penos) as well.
      Granted Sanchez would be nice for 37 but will most WC hold?
      Not sure - only 6weeks to go now and someone like Bolaise could easily outscore him, there's no doubt Alexis is quality but I think it's possible to go without till end of season,
      Ramsey/Giroud are so easy on the pocket and s pick of Ospina/Kos/Caz/Ozil could reward you as much in 37.
      Thanks.

  14. The Orienteer - find me in …
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Yes, agree!

  15. Woy of the Wovers
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Interesting article. Not a great fan of 4 game analysis though. For me the choice is still Ozil v Ramsey.

  16. La Roja
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Meanwhile Darren Bent scores for Derby County

  17. Numb
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Lovely stuff!

  18. Zasa
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Quality article Jaffa, thanks for this solid assessment.
    Think I'm set on having Ramsey, Giroud and Ospina on my WC after reading this.

  19. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    this is maybe most useful article i have read from community
    would give this two votes if i could

  20. bibi
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    One of the few articles that convinced me to make major changes to my team. Didn't get enough ft to do this yet but already proved golden this week. Many thanks great work.