Searching for Fantasy Football Gold

The purpose of this article is to identify ‘Fantasy Football gold’. By that, I mean players who, whenever they nail down a starting place in their team, can be relied on to produce points in Fantasy Football. In order to find these players, I’ve come up with a modified way of looking at Points Per Game (PPG). The only matches that are counted in this article are those in which a player has played 60 minutes or more. With two points earned for reaching that mark in FPL, this helps with making like-for-like comparisons. Now that we’ve reached the end of the season, we can use the complete set of data for every player.

Points Per Game Explained

By ignoring matches where a player failed to reach 60 minutes, some players will inevitably come out favourably, whilst others will be disadvantaged. Early red cards will not be seen as detractors, an early sub due to poor performance won’t be considered and, crucially, sub appearances for players who are in and out the team are taken out of the picture. My interest here is purely in how a player performs when they start matches – whether or not they actually manage this is a different matter entirely!

I’ve identified four Points Per Game as a reasonable cut-off point, and so the players below all reached at least that total. If I’ve left anyone out, I do apologise, but these were all calculated individually! There were a few goalkeepers who managed four PPG, but I’ve not included them here. They do not really earn attacking points or even bonus points, and so I would just be listing the goalkeepers in the best defences, with the highest tendency to earn save points. There is a similar problem with defenders; some of the players with the highest PPG happened to play only a few games, in which their side picked up more clean sheets than usual. Often, their high PPG is due to their strong defence being ‘Fantasy Football gold’, rather than the player themselves.

However, defenders have been included, because I think that they can still be ‘Fantasy Football gold’ in a way that keepers can’t. One need look no further than cult hero Aleksandr Kolarov, in a world of his own at the top of the defenders table; his attacking prowess means he is an excellent player to own, just as long as you know that he’s going to start! As well as defenders with attacking potential, the table below identifies bonus point magnets, such as Laurent Koscielny and Cesar Azpilicueta, and even a few players who seem to have simply improved a defence by their very presence in the team – Robert Huth at Leicester, for example.

Each player is listed next to their PPG. With some of the more surprising figures, I’ve added the caveat that the player in question only started a few games; this is in brackets in each case.

The Defenders

Kolarov – 5.3
Azpilicueta – 4.9
Koscielny – 4.9
Ivanovic – 4.7
Terry – 4.7
Baines – 4.5
Smalling – 4.5
Evans – 4.5
Bellerin – 4.4
Chester – 4.2
Bertrand – 4.1
Clyne – 4.1
Huth – 4.1
Gibbs – 4.0
Clichy – 4.0
Mangala – 4.0

The Midfielders

Walcott – 9.5 (4 appearances)
Sanchez – 6.2
Hazard – 6.1
Silva – 5.6
Di Maria – 5.6
Chadli – 5.5
Adam – 5.4
Mane – 5.2
Fabregas – 5.2
Albrighton – 5.2
Oscar – 5.1
Ramsey – 5.0
Yaya – 5.0
Ozil – 4.9
Eriksen – 4.9
Cazorla – 4.8
Sigurdsson – 4.8
Herrera – 4.8
Mata – 4.8
Gerrard – 4.7
Sterling – 4.6
Tadic – 4.6
Henderson – 4.5
Townsend – 4.5
Fellaini – 4.4
Downing – 4.3
Walters – 4.3
Phillips – 4.3
Mahrez – 4.3
Milner – 4.3
Lallana – 4.2
Mirallas – 4.1
Ki – 4.1
Bolasie – 4.0
Coutinho – 4.0
Nasri – 4.0

The Forwards

Murray – 7.1 (8 appearances)
Aguero – 6.9
Cisse – 6.4 (9 appearances)
Kane – 6.3
Costa – 6.0
Gayle – 5.8 (9 appearances)
Jovetic – 5.7 (7 appearances)
Giroud – 5.5
Bony – 5.5
Sturridge – 5.3 (7 appearances)
Austin – 5.1
Sakho – 4.9
Carroll – 4.8
Benteke – 4.8
Dzeko – 4.6
Welbeck – 4.5
Diouf – 4.5
Bojan – 4.5
Ulloa – 4.3
Rooney – 4.2
Berahino – 4.2
Vardy – 4.2
van Persie – 4.1
Lukaku – 4.1
Naismith – 4.1
N’Doye – 4.1
Jelavic – 4.1
Ings – 4.1
Crouch – 4.1
Pelle – 4.0

Whew! Now that the light reading is out the way, I’ll sift through all of those numbers to pick out some trends, highlighting some of the different types of ‘Fantasy Football gold’.

The Outliers

Firstly, I should note that these stats need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Due to small sample sizes with unsustainable performances, some players here have posted numbers which we can’t expect to be replicated. Theo Walcott is not going to score 9.5 points a game whenever he starts, nor is Glenn Murray the best striker in the league. Walcott’s five goals in four starts is still very impressive, though, and Murray went on a real hot streak when Alan Pardew gave him the opportunity this season. Marc Albrighton is another player who has benefited from only playing in Leicester’s stunning run of seven wins in the last nine. Nonetheless, the outliers are also where we can find some players that have been overlooked. The poaching power of Papiss Cisse, Murray and Dwight Gayle can’t be denied, and so whilst this shouldn’t be seen as an accurate measure of their points potential, these players certainly warrant monitoring if they get game time next season.

The Big Hitters

These are the players that need no introduction. Top of these tables, and top points scorers over the season. Alexis Sanchez, Eden Hazard, David Silva, Sergio Aguero, Harry Kane and Diego Costa have been Fantasy gold this year, but they have obviously not slipped under the radar. Key attacking players for the best teams in the league, it’s hard not to notice that they are doing well, and it’s hard to succeed without them in your team.

The Selfish Shooters

Most frequently seen inducing groans from their fans: “Why didn’t he pass it?!” “What is he thinking, shooting from there!?” The Selfish Shooter is nonetheless Fantasy gold – goals are what get the big points in, not assists. Out for themselves first and foremost, they can be identified by their sheer quantity of shots, and as they buy so many tickets, they’re bound to win the lottery eventually. ‘Minutes per Chance’ is a great stat to track when searching for this type of player; a quick glance in the Members area sees the likes of Walcott, Charlie Adam and Kevin Mirallas all feature highly for this stat, as they do in this table. Of course, their selfishness may be to the overall detriment of the team, and so we have to enjoy their Fantasy points whilst their spot in the side lasts. Kevin Mirallas exemplified this type of ‘Fantasy gold’ player when he barged Baines out the way to take a penalty earlier in the season. He may have missed, and lost his place as a result, but it’s the sort of personality you want in your Fantasy team!

The Set Piece Hoggers

Speaking of penalties, someone who specialises in taking set pieces, and penalties in particular, is another example of ‘Fantasy gold’. Steven Gerrard was the pinnacle of set-piece hoggers, monopolising penalties, corners and free kicks whilst on the pitch. As good as corner and free-kick duties can be, though, penalty duties are one of the sure fire signs of Fantasy gold. They are why Andros Townsend can be found on this list! Yaya Toure last season showed the boost penalties can give to a player over a long period, whilst Santi Cazorla has greatly benefited from spot-kicks this term. Big teams tend to win the most penalties, and so a nailed-on penalty taker from a top side will always be at least a decent Fantasy prospect – add in any other sort of attacking potential, and you’re approaching gold status!

The ‘Big Team’ Players

Not only do big teams earn more penalties, but they score the most goals and concede the fewest, and this translates into Fantasy points. Anyone with an attacking role who is properly nailed on in a strong team is likely to be a good pick. The likes of James Milner, Samir Nasri, Adam Lallana and Edin Dzeko are expensive, and have not been particularly strong Fantasy options this season. However, the stats above show that when they get starts, they still do well. It is the rotation which causes the issue – even squad players as these players are there for a reason. They have quality, and will score points due to the great players around them.

The key to finding a differential ‘big team’ player is in an injury occurring to another player or two. We have seen it this season with Loic Remy and Danny Welbeck’s bandwagons when they were their side’s only fit striker. Those might not have worked out very well, but Welbeck’s 4.5 PPG above is quite respectable, and Remy has proven his class in front of goal – they were still good picks. More success has been found in the value of a nailed-on Arsenal right back at 4.5; both Calum Chambers and Hector Bellerin have been great choices due to Mathieu Debuchy’s injury troubles. In many cases, the team is more important than the player.

The Circumstantial Superstars

Finally, there are some players who benefit from a particular role, or change in system. For example, Cesc Fabregas has averaged 4.8 PPG in a central midfield position, and 6.4 PPG in the hole. More strikingly, Sergio Aguero has averaged 4.9 PPG when played in a front two, but a stunning 9.3 PPG when played as a lone striker. A change in manager can also be benefitial, such as in Tony Pulis revitalising the West Brom defence, or Pardew unlocking Palace’s attacking potential. Christian Benteke’s PPG since Tim Sherwood took charge is a very impressive 6.7 – significantly up on his season average in the table above.

Searching for Fantasy Football Gold

The joy in playing this game, and using this site, is in the search for that magical player, the differential that breaks new ground. The goal-hanging striker, the midfielder who likes a crack from distance. The sort of wonderful idiot that steals a penalty off one of the best spot-kick takers in the league. They may soon lose their place due to this type of behaviour, but if you spot ‘Fantasy gold’, don’t hesitate to bring it in. We can all identify the big hitters, or the players who are such good value that they become essential. Like the rose that soon wilts, the ‘Fantasy gold’ player is all the more beautiful for its fleeting nature.