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Manchester City Reviewed

The aim is to review teams from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) and other Fantasy Football game perspective, looking back at last season while it is fresh in the mind and forward to the next prior to the changes caused by the summer transfer window. Next up is Manchester City.

There were two outstanding things about Manchester City during the 2014/15 season:

1. They score goals, lots of goals. 83 this season, 102 last season, 93 when they won the Premier League in 2011-12. Chelsea scored 73 in winning this season, that’s the comparison.
2. They get beaten too often. Seven times this season, six in winning last season, five when they won in 2011-12. Traditionally four defeats or less is the target for would-be champions. And arguably what gave Chelsea the edge this season was their ability not to be beaten – only three defeats and one of them after the title was done and dusted.

I don’t think many would argue that in Sergio Aguero, City have the best striker in the Premier League. Personally I would go further – I think he’s possibly the best “pure” striker in the world. Ronaldo, Messi, Suarez all do a lot of their best work outside of the area – they are forwards (although Ronaldo has arguably reinvented himself more as a striker in the last year or so). But Aguero lives and breathes in the penalty box (six-12 yards) – that is his killing ground.

WEAKNESSES

Let’s put aside the strengths temporarily – we all know them anyway. They revolve around attacking flair and the strengths of Aguero, David Silva and Yaya Toure (more last season than this). The weaknesses are maybe more interesting.

One element is defensive resilience. The strange thing is that City don’t actually concede that many more goals than Chelsea’s 32 this season (although that was high for a Mourinho Chelsea). City conceded 38 in 2014-15, 37 in 13-14 and only 29 in 11-12. But where Chelsea seem to be able to refuse to concede in key games, City don’t have that strength. Ten goals conceded in six games against the other top four teams in the season just gone tells its own story. Chelsea conceded three goals in the equivalent games.

Is this a mental thing or a tactical one? A bit of both I think. Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini often talks about “attractive football”, especially when touchy comparisons with Chelsea come up. It seems as if the mindset is to beat other teams by blowing them away.  But the stubborn insistence on that approach seems to be found wanting when against the best opponents. City won the Premier League despite losing six games in 2013-14 but that was unusual and may have had something to do with the relative weakness of the competition.

As it stands, City are at a crossroads and for that reason assessing them for next season is not easy. Will Pellegrini stay? It looks as if he will and this appraisal is based on that assumption. A new manager would totally change the picture and probably City’s tactical approach as well. In addition, the squad is ageing. Will James Milner and Toure stay? Who will come in? All these variables make for uncertainty, although with Financial Fair Play being relaxed, City may be in a better position than they might have been.

CITY PLAYERS – DEFENCE

As it stands it’s hard to make a case for any City defenders as good FPL prospects for next season unless you bring one in for a run of “easy” games. For example, Hart has the same number of save points as Courtois (who has played less games) and City keep less clean sheets. The same applies for the outfield defenders – players like Pablo Zabaleta and Aleksander Kolarov can flatter to deceive because of attacking potential but City don’t have a settled back four as Chelsea and Arsenal do and there is always rotation risk.

Kompany has shown that he can be a good FPL asset – 145 points in the title-winning 11-12 season. But that kind of form is in the past and in recent seasons he hasn’t shown that level. The thing is that City defenders carry premium prices in the main but they don’t perform with the reliability that a FPL manager really wants from that kind of investment.  Possibly the addition of a top defensive midfielder in the summer might affect that picture however as some City fans have observed.

CITY PLAYERS – MIDFIELD

City have very good midfield assets but they mostly come with some kind of caveat. Fernando and Fernadinho play in the CM/DM position that FPL doesn’t well reward. Navas consistently posts great stats for “chances created” but they seldom seem to translate into FPL points. James Milner looks like he may be leaving, Frank Lampard certainly is.

The ones that FPL managers might most easily consider are Samir Nasri, Toure and Silva. Nasri’s 155 points in season 2013-14 show that he can be a good FPL option but over the last 8 seasons he has averaged only 2100 minutes per season (whether through rotation or injury), 30% less than players who start almost every game are managing. However, given an injury-free run and a regular starting position he could offer value if priced around 7.5.

For many, Toure’s heroics in 2013-14 are still the stuff of legend. But his 241 FPL points that season look like a statistical outlier now. This season he has scored 134 points, very similar to what he managed from 2010 to 2013 (146, 139, 142 points). It looks like that’s the norm, in which case he’s overpriced unless he comes in around 8.0/8.5 next season (which seems unlikely).

That leaves the “little magician” that is Silva. He has had a stellar season, mainly because of scoring 12 goals – his assists are similar to previous seasons. But his overall returns this season are not so far in advance of what he has achieved in the past. He seems to be able to thrive in any formation, though when City play 4-2-3-1 and he has the #10 role it probably suits him best. At a probable price of around 10.0 next season he’ll be one many will consider and some will think is essential. Unless there are big changes in the City midfield in the summer he’ll certainly look the most attractive City midfield pick.

CITY PLAYERS – STRIKER

This is where I may become a bit controversial. Research I did a couple of months ago suggests to me that Aguero’s FPL value is very dependent on whether City are playing 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2.  Ludo has since improved on this in his Searching for Fantasy Gold article in which he revealed that “Sergio Aguero has averaged 4.9 PPG when played in a front two, but a stunning 9.3 PPG when played as a lone striker.”

If you look at Aguero’s goals in the season just gone, almost all of them are from 6-12 yards and central. When City play 4-2-3-1 with him at the point, that’s where he is. Right in his killing ground. However when City play with Bony, especially, in what Pellegrini calls 4-2-2-2, Aguero drifts deeper and wider. He still gets (almost) as many shots away but many are from further out or from more acute angles. And this reflects in the amount of goals scored.

Aguero is such a good player that he is still a big danger even in a support striker role. But not as big a danger. And at a probable price of 12.5 next season I would want to know he’ll be playing where he is at his best. Put him there and he’s essential, surely. Play him deeper in a 4-2-2-2 then perhaps not so much. It would be a brave call to leave him out but one I’d personally be willing to make.

Bony is the imponderable. He’s a very good player and FPL option in his own right, especially if he’s going to be a regular starter. And I can’t think that Pellegrini/City bought him to be regularly benched. I think he’s in front of Dzeko in the pecking order and if he’s to be a regular starter and priced around 8.5 he could even turn out to be a better option than Aguero. There, I have said it. But surely Pellegrini wouldn’t be that stubborn, would he? Actually some City fans think he would.

Thanks to Shifty, Carlos Kickaball, Ludo and others whose comments have been integrated in this article.

20 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 10 months ago

    Thanks for this. Silva and Aguero likely to be the standouts once more. But with premium price tags for Chelsea players, Arsenal's midfielders and Harry Kane its going to be tricky to squeeze both in at the start. Perhaps those that do could have the edge if they can continue to pop the goals in.

  2. Enzo the Baker
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 10 months ago

    Ruth, I believe the problem with dropping aguero from your fpl team when Pelle plays 4-4-2 is just that there is no way of knowing when Pellegrini will favor one system over the other. Traditionally, yes hes favored lone striker in tough away matches but the problem is - even if three matches he goes 4-4-2 and the fourth is 4-5-1, aguero has enough firepower, ownership and captaincy potential to kill your OR and ML position in just that one week, as seen towards the latter part of the recently concluded season.

    For this reason, I would probably just stick him in my team and forget about him unless a major injury happens, even if he scores a string of 2,2,2 pts (copa America might be a factor to consider initially)

    1. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah, I know. That's why I said it would be a brave decision.

      Twice this season (after I got the hang of the game) I went without Aguero for a while. Didn't hurt me because I timed it right but there is/was a risk for sure.

      The fortunate thing (for me anyway) is that Aguero will be eased in after Copa America and a shortened pre-season, according to Pellegrini. That will give me an excuse to start off without him if I want one. 😕

  3. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 10 months ago

    Bloody hell. We're in the year 20915 already. Time flies eh?

  4. OShaughnessy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 10 months ago

    > Research I did a couple of months ago suggests to me that Aguero’s FPL value is very dependent on whether City are playing 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2.

    Ruth, you should really dig deeper & look at more than just a handful of games from one season before you make a claim like this.

    Go back 2 or 3 years & look at Aguero's record when playing next to the likes of Tevez, Dzeko, & Negrado.

    Even just a quick glance through past seasons match summaries shows that Aguero has flourished alongside a strike partner.

    Heck, just look at his FPL history.
    In 13/14 Aguero managed 17 goals & 11 assists in about 16 games & that year he played with Dzeko or Negrado almost every match.

    1. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 months ago

      Look at the last 8 games after Aguero came back from injury last season. Dzeko 6 goals, Aguero 2.

      Look at Ludo's article. 4.9 PPG this season for Aguero when City played 2 strikers, 9.3 PPG when lone striker.

      Bony is the biggest problem. He's an out and out striker and takes Aguero's killing ground away. Dzeko is more flexible and drops deeper sometimes so doesn't impair Aguero's goal chances as much. Tevez was also more flexible.

      In any case, this article just gives my interpretation. No-one has to accept it.

      1. OShaughnessy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 10 months ago

        > Look at the last 8 games after Aguero came back from injury last season. Dzeko 6 goals, Aguero 2.

        Stop cherry picking tiny groups of games to support your claim!
        You want to play that game? Cool...

        I mean, could just as easily point to the 8 games Aguero played bwtn Dec, 8th,'13 & Jan, 29th, '14 where Aguero managed to score 9 goals playing alongside Dzeko & Negrado every day... Both of which are *out & out* strikers as you put it.

        > Look at Ludo's article. 4.9 PPG this season for Aguero when City played 2 strikers, 9.3 PPG when lone striker.

        And, what's that sample size?
        It can't be any more than 10 games, about a quarter of a season max.

        And, now look back at Aguero's entire history playing with Tevez, Balotelli, Dzeko, & Negrado. It's plain to see Aguero is just fine with a partner.

        > In any case, this article just gives my interpretation. No-one has to accept it.

        In the end, instead of getting your back up, just take some constructive criticism.
        Your sample is too small & as a result, your interpretation needs reworking.

        1. Carlos Kickaball
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 10 months ago

          O'S, while I agree with your conclusion I find it surprising that you would dismiss something as statistically irellevent when you haven't done something as basic as a t-test. Please if you want to be rigourous actually do.

          1. OShaughnessy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 10 months ago

            > you haven't done something as basic as a t-test. Please if you want to be rigourous actually do.

            @Carlos, this is a fake football forum & no one is expecting any real academic work, are they? I feel context is key here sir.
            This is more talking over pints than peer-reviewed submissions.

            Overall, I haven't made any extraordinary claims & I feel confident that this informal approach is more than sufficient to back up my position.

            In sum, Ruth's sample is too small.

            And, looking back we see Aguero has logged most of his PL mins next to a striker partner & scored lots of FPL points while there. 🙂

            1. Carlos Kickaball
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 10 months ago

              But how do you know? You say the sample size is too small, he says it's representative. That's my point. I expect anyone who tries to claim data is statistically irelevent to do a T-test, as it's the very level of rigour they are requesting.

              1. OShaughnessy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                8 years, 10 months ago

                Mate, I'm not getting in a back & forth over *testing* my statistical model, this is a fake football forum.

                Moreover, you've already agreed with my position!

                Although, I welcome you to spend the time to test the claims I've made.

                I'm sure it would be a worthwhile use of anyone's time & I'd love to hear all about the results. 🙂

                1. Carlos Kickaball
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 10 months ago

                  The reason I ask is twofold, and I was out and on my phone earlier, hence the brevity of replies.

                  1) I did a t-test on this very data earlier in the season, and it was not quite statistically significant, so I'd be interested to know the t-test statistic now, because I am aware that since I did it more data in support of Ruth_NZ's position came in. I'd do it again, but I don't have the data to hand anymore (the full split of Agüero's points scores this season, and if I was doing it I would personally go through and check the data myself). Like you I can't be bothered, but as a result I am not going to make a claim like it's not statistically relevant without doing the work or even looking at the data again.

                  A t-test isn't particularly academic work (and is worthwhile as often these kind of claims are statistically shaky), with access to a computer and the data it's about as simple to do as finding the averages of the sets of data (I think you can do it in excel, but there are also lots of online applications that will do it for you).

                  2) It seems you would like claims made on forums like this to actually be accurate, and statistics to be respected. I do too, and it essentially means not evoking statistical ideas unless you're actually going to use them, otherwise you just discredit the very ideas that are valuable, and rather than encouraging members to check and be rigorous you encourage them to just interpret any data as they like.

                  I'm not insisting you do a t-test or anything like that, but if this is indeed a "fake football forum" and it doesn't matter, you should have no qualms with statistically weak claims being pushed about.

                  I mean this in the friendliest of ways, but sadly for my own imageand reputation, I'm also being serious. 😆

                2. Carlos Kickaball
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 10 months ago

                  In short I'm more worried about generally encouraging good statistics (from everyone), than I am about the actual results. But both have interest. 😀

                  1. OShaughnessy
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    8 years, 10 months ago

                    But, where does common sense & a good use of our time come into play here...

                    I fully understand that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

                    Although, when we make a rather ordinary claim like:

                    "Aguero has played about 8600mins all told in the PL.
                    So, only looking at a particular 900mins (10 games) isn't enough to tell us much of anything."

                    That kind of claim shouldn't need any further justification.

                    I mean, nothing would get done in this world if we were challenged to *test* / *prove* each & every ordinary claim we made.

                    Moreover, we don't need a rigorous statistical analysis to scan City's match records over the past four seasons to see that Aguero has scored *most* of his PL goals w/ a strike partner on the pitch.

                    Sergio Aguero Match Record by Season:
                    http://www.soccerbase.com/players/player.sd?player_id=44554

                    To close, I fully appreciate that we should strive to challenge each other & do our best to justify our claims but, in this instance it hardly warrants this much discussion.

                    1. Carlos Kickaball
                      • 9 Years
                      8 years, 10 months ago

                      I would say it comes into play when significance is questionable and relevant. It's relevant, and you bought it up as in issue. In my opinion it is questionable, the evidence from this season is not as weak as you have assumed it to be. (I am even considering doing the t-test now dammit 😆 )

                      From memory the evidence from this season had some merit even before Agüero knocked in a brace and a hat trick as a lone striker against QPR and Man U. I would be very surprised if the evidence does not at least give 80+% confidence, which although not conclusive would still give it some weight.

                      To be honest, it would be great if when people did compare averages like this, they just did a t-test anyway, as that's not the difficult bit of the work. 😀

                      1. OShaughnessy
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 11 Years
                        8 years, 10 months ago

                        Why bother?

                        Just look back 2, 3 & 4 years ago & we'll see that Aguero has typically played with a striker partner & as a result, scored most of his FPL points with them on the pitch.

                        Also, goals is such a bunk metric.
                        We'd really need to look at underlying stats like SiB & Chances Created, with & without a striker partner on the pitch to really tell us if another man up front truly affects Aguero's FPL prowess.

                        As an aside, Aguero average 9.8pts alone & 4.9 with a partner this year.
                        We don't need a statistical analysis to tell us that Aguero being on pace for 372pts wasn't sustainable.

                        In the end, we shouldn't need to discuss this anymore. A basic understanding of math tells us that 900mins of 8600 total mins just won't do...

                      2. Carlos Kickaball
                        • 9 Years
                        8 years, 10 months ago

                        > "Why bother?"

                        Because to dismiss evidence that could be statistically relevant without researching whether it is shows prejudice not logic.

                        > "Also, goals is such a bunk metric.
                        We'd really need to look at underlying stats like SiB & Chances Created."

                        I did it at the time with the points scored, and with goal threat numbers. - I am actually disappointed that I can only seemingly see my post history for the last 30 days, as otherwise I could give you a more conclusive answer, but I actually felt the need to do this because the points score evidence was reasonably strong.

    2. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 months ago

      In response to all of the above...

      I don't base my assessments purely on stats. I also watch games and use the evidence of my eyes. But I generally look to see if the stats seem to back up or contradict my impressions.

      O'Shaugnessy seems to want scientific proof. He won't get that from me. I have explained the basis for my appraisal but I don't state it as a fact. "Suggests to me" is not the same as "proves".

      Any article like this will offer interpretation. It is up to the reader to decide to what degree they think the interpretation is valid.

      1. OShaughnessy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 10 months ago

        > I don't base my assessments purely on stats. I also watch games and use the evidence of my eyes.

        That's fine Ruth but, in this instance don't you think that you might have been well served to look at more than just this year's statistics / games?

        > O'Shaugnessy seems to want scientific proof. He won't get that from me.

        I don't want anything of the sort.
        I only said, you shouldn't make a claim like that based only a handful of games.
        Especially, when we can look back to see that Aguero has scored lots of FPL points, next to all types of strike partners throughout his PL career.

        > Any article like this will offer interpretation. It is up to the reader to decide to what degree they think the interpretation is valid.

        Again, I'm showing you where your interpretation has gone awry.
        Just say, "Hey, thanks for sharing this info! I didn't realise Aguero scored lots of goals with a partner in years past."

  5. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 10 months ago

    Excellent read as the one previous, look forward to reading them all 🙂