The aim is to review teams from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) and other Fantasy Football game perspective, looking back at last season while it is fresh in the mind and forward to the next prior to the changes caused by the summer transfer window. Next up is Manchester City.
There were two outstanding things about Manchester City during the 2014/15 season:
1. They score goals, lots of goals. 83 this season, 102 last season, 93 when they won the Premier League in 2011-12. Chelsea scored 73 in winning this season, that’s the comparison.
2. They get beaten too often. Seven times this season, six in winning last season, five when they won in 2011-12. Traditionally four defeats or less is the target for would-be champions. And arguably what gave Chelsea the edge this season was their ability not to be beaten – only three defeats and one of them after the title was done and dusted.
I don’t think many would argue that in Sergio Aguero, City have the best striker in the Premier League. Personally I would go further – I think he’s possibly the best “pure” striker in the world. Ronaldo, Messi, Suarez all do a lot of their best work outside of the area – they are forwards (although Ronaldo has arguably reinvented himself more as a striker in the last year or so). But Aguero lives and breathes in the penalty box (six-12 yards) – that is his killing ground.
WEAKNESSES
Let’s put aside the strengths temporarily – we all know them anyway. They revolve around attacking flair and the strengths of Aguero, David Silva and Yaya Toure (more last season than this). The weaknesses are maybe more interesting.
One element is defensive resilience. The strange thing is that City don’t actually concede that many more goals than Chelsea’s 32 this season (although that was high for a Mourinho Chelsea). City conceded 38 in 2014-15, 37 in 13-14 and only 29 in 11-12. But where Chelsea seem to be able to refuse to concede in key games, City don’t have that strength. Ten goals conceded in six games against the other top four teams in the season just gone tells its own story. Chelsea conceded three goals in the equivalent games.
Is this a mental thing or a tactical one? A bit of both I think. Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini often talks about “attractive football”, especially when touchy comparisons with Chelsea come up. It seems as if the mindset is to beat other teams by blowing them away. But the stubborn insistence on that approach seems to be found wanting when against the best opponents. City won the Premier League despite losing six games in 2013-14 but that was unusual and may have had something to do with the relative weakness of the competition.
As it stands, City are at a crossroads and for that reason assessing them for next season is not easy. Will Pellegrini stay? It looks as if he will and this appraisal is based on that assumption. A new manager would totally change the picture and probably City’s tactical approach as well. In addition, the squad is ageing. Will James Milner and Toure stay? Who will come in? All these variables make for uncertainty, although with Financial Fair Play being relaxed, City may be in a better position than they might have been.
CITY PLAYERS – DEFENCE
As it stands it’s hard to make a case for any City defenders as good FPL prospects for next season unless you bring one in for a run of “easy” games. For example, Hart has the same number of save points as Courtois (who has played less games) and City keep less clean sheets. The same applies for the outfield defenders – players like Pablo Zabaleta and Aleksander Kolarov can flatter to deceive because of attacking potential but City don’t have a settled back four as Chelsea and Arsenal do and there is always rotation risk.
Kompany has shown that he can be a good FPL asset – 145 points in the title-winning 11-12 season. But that kind of form is in the past and in recent seasons he hasn’t shown that level. The thing is that City defenders carry premium prices in the main but they don’t perform with the reliability that a FPL manager really wants from that kind of investment. Possibly the addition of a top defensive midfielder in the summer might affect that picture however as some City fans have observed.
CITY PLAYERS – MIDFIELD
City have very good midfield assets but they mostly come with some kind of caveat. Fernando and Fernadinho play in the CM/DM position that FPL doesn’t well reward. Navas consistently posts great stats for “chances created” but they seldom seem to translate into FPL points. James Milner looks like he may be leaving, Frank Lampard certainly is.
The ones that FPL managers might most easily consider are Samir Nasri, Toure and Silva. Nasri’s 155 points in season 2013-14 show that he can be a good FPL option but over the last 8 seasons he has averaged only 2100 minutes per season (whether through rotation or injury), 30% less than players who start almost every game are managing. However, given an injury-free run and a regular starting position he could offer value if priced around 7.5.
For many, Toure’s heroics in 2013-14 are still the stuff of legend. But his 241 FPL points that season look like a statistical outlier now. This season he has scored 134 points, very similar to what he managed from 2010 to 2013 (146, 139, 142 points). It looks like that’s the norm, in which case he’s overpriced unless he comes in around 8.0/8.5 next season (which seems unlikely).
That leaves the “little magician” that is Silva. He has had a stellar season, mainly because of scoring 12 goals – his assists are similar to previous seasons. But his overall returns this season are not so far in advance of what he has achieved in the past. He seems to be able to thrive in any formation, though when City play 4-2-3-1 and he has the #10 role it probably suits him best. At a probable price of around 10.0 next season he’ll be one many will consider and some will think is essential. Unless there are big changes in the City midfield in the summer he’ll certainly look the most attractive City midfield pick.
CITY PLAYERS – STRIKER
This is where I may become a bit controversial. Research I did a couple of months ago suggests to me that Aguero’s FPL value is very dependent on whether City are playing 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2. Ludo has since improved on this in his Searching for Fantasy Gold article in which he revealed that “Sergio Aguero has averaged 4.9 PPG when played in a front two, but a stunning 9.3 PPG when played as a lone striker.”
If you look at Aguero’s goals in the season just gone, almost all of them are from 6-12 yards and central. When City play 4-2-3-1 with him at the point, that’s where he is. Right in his killing ground. However when City play with Bony, especially, in what Pellegrini calls 4-2-2-2, Aguero drifts deeper and wider. He still gets (almost) as many shots away but many are from further out or from more acute angles. And this reflects in the amount of goals scored.
Aguero is such a good player that he is still a big danger even in a support striker role. But not as big a danger. And at a probable price of 12.5 next season I would want to know he’ll be playing where he is at his best. Put him there and he’s essential, surely. Play him deeper in a 4-2-2-2 then perhaps not so much. It would be a brave call to leave him out but one I’d personally be willing to make.
Bony is the imponderable. He’s a very good player and FPL option in his own right, especially if he’s going to be a regular starter. And I can’t think that Pellegrini/City bought him to be regularly benched. I think he’s in front of Dzeko in the pecking order and if he’s to be a regular starter and priced around 8.5 he could even turn out to be a better option than Aguero. There, I have said it. But surely Pellegrini wouldn’t be that stubborn, would he? Actually some City fans think he would.
Thanks to Shifty, Carlos Kickaball, Ludo and others whose comments have been integrated in this article.
8 years, 10 months ago
Thanks for this. Silva and Aguero likely to be the standouts once more. But with premium price tags for Chelsea players, Arsenal's midfielders and Harry Kane its going to be tricky to squeeze both in at the start. Perhaps those that do could have the edge if they can continue to pop the goals in.