All In A Spin: The Teams Most and Least Likely To Rotate

With the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) recently relaunched for the new season, the planning has begun. Foremost in the thoughts of FPL managers is conjecture as to where the best value lays and who is a ‘nailed on’ starter. Unfortunately, with so many players in contention and new transfers coming in, it can be difficult to predict who a club’s favoured XI will be.

Recently I carried out  some research into the relationship between FPL starting price and point-scoring potential for the season and from the outset I noted that £121.1m in value was lost from the player lists over the course of the 2014/15 season. The explanation for this is that only a relatively small proportion of players in the list will play regularly, much less generate significant FPL points. As form ebbs and flows throughout the season, FPL managers veer from one top performer to the next, with teams becoming more homogenised as we progress. As a select few players see their value increase, the majority will decrease as their net transfers per week fall into the minus figures.

The best chance of accumulating FPL points is picking players who are playing. This is obvious, but in the era of squad rotations, identifying guaranteed starters for reasonable money is a challenge. I have looked at the final 12 games of last season to see whether these can shed some light on Premier League managers’ confidence and comfort with their squads. The theory goes that if a manager is predisposed to tinker, then rotation of the FPL assets is more likely, so it could pay to look at the teams which were settled, for whom mild evolution over the summer is more probable than revolution. Obviously this is a not a “fool proof” methodology, because injuries, fatigue and suspensions will force a club’s hand, so I have tried to mitigate this by looking primarily at the number of players to complete at least 60 minutes in nine of the final 12 games (75%) relative to the number of players at club involved over this time. Note: last season’s relegated teams have been excluded from this analysis.

Settled Line-Ups

The model of consistency towards the end of the season was Tony Pulis’ West Brom. In the final 12 games they provided the lowest number of players to experience time on the pitch with just 19. More impressively still, they registered the joint-highest number of players to pick up two appearance points for playing 60 or minutes in at least 75% of the final games (ten players). This represents 53% of their involved playing squad. They were particularly settled in midfield, with five of these ten – Chris Brunt, Claudio Yacob, Craig Gardner, Darren Fletcher and James Morrison – plying their trade in the middle of the park. Pulis’ recruitment of James McClean from Wigan is the only factor which could potentially disrupt this midfielder consistency.

Four teams followed, with 20 players involved in the final 12 games. Arsenal and Stoke matched West Brom for consistency of line-up, with ten players all featuring heavily in the final dozen games, representing 50% of their involved playing squad. In the case of Stoke, this is perhaps not surprising when we consider they have the joint-smallest squad involvement over the course of the season; just 23 players were considered good enough to represent the Potters, meaning they were perhaps forced into a settled line-up through lack of options although this may be doing Mark Hughes’ squad building talents an injustice. He has been busy in the transfer market thus far, although only Joselu and Markio van Ginkel look set to really contend for regular starts, but with the returning Bojan Krkic and Marc Muniesa, as well as the departing Steven N’Zonzi there is potential for disruption at the Britannia Stadium.

By contrast Arsenal is stereotyped as having a large squad with too many options, particularly in midfield. It is true that over the season only two teams utilized more players, but as with West Brom and Stoke, five of their ten regular starters in the final weeks were from midfield; Aaron Ramsey, Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla, Mesut Ozil and Francis Coquelin. This suggests that the midfield dilemma is perhaps not as great as we may think. Arsene Wenger found consistency in his line-up as the team hit form at the end of the season, which should only be disturbed by £9.0m midfielder Theo Walcott this season, although he is likely to be more of a threat to forward Oliver Giroud.

Southampton and West Ham also used only 20 players in the final weeks, but these are not likely to prove useful guides for the coming season. West Ham has recruited a new manager, several new players to date, and supposedly a new attacking philosophy. It is also probable that their early Europa League qualifying games are going to provide much of a template for the season, with numerous youngsters being called upon. Southampton’s consistency in an impressive campaign was largely attributed to the defence, but with Fraser Forster and Ryan Bertrand injured for the start of the season, and with Toby Alderweireld and Nathaniel Clyne both having departed and strong rumours of Morgan Schneiderlin to follow, the template for Saints will have to be rethought by Ronald Koeman.

A mention should also go to Tottenham. After a season that featured a Europa League campaign and Mauricio Pochettino’s high pressing style, the end of the season brought some visible signs of fatigue as the team stumbled across the line. However, in spite of this, five players completed at least 60 minutes in each of the final 12 games: Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen, the versatile Eric Dier, Nabil Bentaleb and Nacer Chadli. If Dier can survive the defensive overhaul at White Hart Lane, these five should be starters for Spurs in the new season, with the £4.5m Bentaleb offering fantasy potential as the cheap fifth midfielder.

Unsettled Line-Ups

Nobody said the rebuilding job at Old Trafford would be easy, and evidence suggests that Louis van Gaal might still be trying to get the best out of his Manchester United squad. The first team at least held some consistency at the end of the season, with nine players getting maximum appearance points regularly (38% of the involved players), but on the fringes of the squad there was much rotation; 24 players were involved for Man Utd in the final dozen games, the joint-highest in the league. The pattern is consistent throughout the season, with the club utilizing 30 players since GW1, also a joint-high for the league. High profile arrivals of Memphis Depay and Bastian Schweinsteiger and a lack of transfers out (Robin van Persie to Fenerbahce pending at time of writing) suggest that this rotation and tinkering is not yet at an end.

The other team to rotate heavily in the last games was Swansea; only 29% of the large involved squad of 24 players were utilized regularly. Injuries and suspensions definitely seemed to hinder the Swans late in the season, highlighted by Garry Monk’s comments following the 1-0 win away at Arsenal: “We didn’t have a fit striker to choose from the start”. Certainly, the likes of Bafetimbi Gomis would have been an ever-present were it not for injury. That said, there does appear to be evidence of rotation, with Jack Cork the only outfield player to feature prominently in each of the final 12 games, missing only 36 minutes of the last 1,080.

Liverpool utilized 22 players in the final dozen games, which was about halfway between the top and bottom of the rankings. However, only six players recorded the maximum bonus points in at least nine of the last 12 games (27% of the involved squad), the joint-lowest in the league. Brendan Rogers was roundly criticised at the end of the season for his inconsistency, and the data reflects this, with his starting line-up changing dramatically in the season’s final straight. With the addition of many (seemingly) squad players so far – only James Milner and Roberto Firmino look like first-choice players at this stage – this situation may not change in the short term. Interestingly, Rogers did most of his tinkering to personnel before the game, as the club recorded one of the lowest number of substitutions (29) in this period, indicating to more in-game reluctance than most managers.

The biggest concern about guaranteed starters based on the back-end of last season from a fantasy perspective is Aston Villa. Following Tim Sherwood’s appointment in February he chopped and changed his team, utilizing 23 different players (only Man Utd and Swansea used more) and only six of these players (26% of the involved squad) completed 60 minutes in 75% of the games. Further, only two of these players – Christian Benteke and Fabian Delph – completed 60 minutes in all of the last 12 matches. With both of these players linked with moves away before the end of the transfer window, predicting Villa’s starting line-up could potentially become even trickier.