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Foden	MCI	8.3m	89.2%	Maybe
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Amad	MUN	6.3m	65.1%	Unlikely
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King	FUL	4.5m	62.1%	Unlikely
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Gusto	CHE	4.9m	45.7%	Unlikely
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Barnes	NEW	6.4m	40.9%	Unlikely
Livramento	NEW	4.9m	41.3%	Unlikely
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Vicario	TOT	5.0m	98.0%	Maybe
Tel	TOT	6.3m	95.9%	Maybe
Coppola	BHA	4.3m	95.9%	Maybe
Pinnock	BRE	4.3m	95.7%	Maybe
Dixon	EVE	3.9m	94.9%	Maybe
Lewis	MCI	4.8m	93.5%	Maybe
J.Araujo	BOU	3.9m	93.7%	Unlikely
Okafor	LEE	5.5m	94.4%	Unlikely
Maguire	MUN	4.4m	92.9%	Unlikely
Kerkez	LIV	5.7m	92.1%	Unlikely
Welch	EVE	3.9m	92.4%	Unlikely
George	CHE	4.9m	91.3%	Unlikely
Ortega Moreno	MCI	4.8m	90.8%	Unlikely
Mainoo	MUN	4.7m	91.2%	Unlikely
Travers	EVE	4.4m	91.0%	Unlikely
Boateng	BUR	4.8m	89.4%	Unlikely
Kelleher	BRE	4.5m	88.8%	Unlikely
Georginio	BHA	5.7m	84.0%	Unlikely
Darlow	LEE	4.0m	87.1%	Unlikely
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Mac Allister	LIV	6.3m	84.7%	Unlikely
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Knight	BHA	4.5m	84.1%	Unlikely
Cox	BRE	4.0m	84.3%	Unlikely
M.Bizot	AVL	4.3m	85.0%	Unlikely
Matete	SUN	4.4m	82.4%	Unlikely
McGill	BHA	4.0m	83.5%	Unlikely
Baleba	BHA	4.7m	82.8%	Unlikely
Colwill	CHE	4.8m	83.2%	Unlikely
Neave	NEW	4.4m	83.0%	Unlikely
Christie	BOU	5.0m	80.7%	Unlikely
Akinmboni	BOU	3.9m	81.9%	Unlikely
Young	AVL	4.4m	81.6%	Unlikely
Gannon-Doak	BOU	4.9m	81.2%	Unlikely
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Watford – Player Analysis

16 July 2015 33 comments

p00sbrown

Over the last three seasons newly promoted Watford have favoured a 3-5-2 formation, but new manager Quique Flores has hinted he is training his side to play a 4-2-3-1 formation. With this in mind I thought I’d introduce you to the Watford squad and assess the Fantasy Football prospects of each player.

Goalkeepers

Heurelho Gomes: 4.5 – Watford’s first choice goalkeeper came second in the 2014/15 Player of the Season awards on the back of some outstanding saves. He averaged a strong 3.3 saves a game last season and could be a contender to pick up some bonus points, but expect clean sheets to be at a minimum. Verdict: Better options out there.
Giedrius Arlauskis: 4.5 – Newly signed this summer and is expected to be no more than a back-up keeper. Verdict: Avoid

Defenders

Juan Carlos Paredes: 4.5 – The right wing-back had 32 starts and was a regular last season, with 1.8 tackles, and 2.2 interceptions a game too. However, his per-game tally of 1.7 clearances is quite poor. He managed to rack up four assists, but 0.2 crosses a game isn’t too impressive. Verdict: Better options out there.
Gabriele Angella: 4.5 – Another regular with 32 starts last season, he has strong underlying stats, racking up 5.6 clearances and 2.4 interceptions a game. However, his 1.6 tackles a game is quite low. There is attacking intent there, though, with four goals and two assists last season. He also managed seven goals in the 2013-14 season, including this Goal of the Season winner. Verdict: Safe bet for a cheap defender.
Craig Cathcart: 4.5 – Coming third in the Player of the Season award last year, he made 28 starts and made 5.2 clearances a game. But his per-game stats of 1.8 tackles and 1.9 interceptions are fairly average. His position could be at threat with the arrival of new boy Prodl. Verdict: Angella is a safer option.
Sebastian Prodl: 4.5 – New arrival from Werder Bremen who is set for starts if three centre-backs are played. If a four-man defence is used he faces a challenge for starts. Keep an eye on him as his underlying stats are strong. He made an impressive 5.6 clearances and 2.5 interceptions per game across 20 starts in the Bundesliga last season, but a weaker 1.2 tackles per game. He also score three goals last season. Verdict: One to watch, Angella a safer option for now.
Miguel Layun: 4.5 – This Mexican international arrived in January with a reputation of scoring some absolute thunderbolts, but has yet to score for Watford. He was brought in as a wing-back, but was more often used in midfield in his 14 starts. He has taken a few set pieces, but only has the one assist to his name. Could have the potential to pick up some out-of-position points and looks secure for starts for now. Verdict: Better options at his price
Jose Holebas: 4.5 – A new arrival from Roma and a Greece international, he is expected to come in and take up the left-back slot of a back-four. He may face more competition for a starting place, though, if Watford stick to a three-at-the-back formation. He comes boasting 2.5 tackles, 2.4 interceptions and three clearances a game, from his 23 starts in Serie A. However, his 0.3 crosses a game isn’t too impressive for a full-back. Verdict: One to monitor, Angella a safer option for now.
Lloyd Doyley: 4.0 – Technically shouldn’t be on here yet, as is out of contract – although he is still training with Watford until his expected return to fitness in September . An undisputed club legend, but with only five starts last season, and only two goals in over 400 appearances is not a Fantasy football option. Verdict: Avoid (with a heavy heart).
Tommie Hoban: 4.0 – Managed 20 starts last season and could prove to be a frugal purchase at the right time of the season due to his versatility to play in the back three, or left-back in a four man defence. He picked up game time both of the last two seasons, but always seems to need an injury or suspension to get in the team. and he does tend to stay there once he’s in. His 0.3 tackles and interceptions a game aren’t as good as others, although his five clearances a game is reasonable. Verdict: Monitor, could be a cheap option if injuries strike others.
Daniel Pudil: 4.0 – With 19 starts last season, he started well but then fell out of favour. A left-back, if he can work his way back into contention, he could prove to be a cheap playing option. Tackling at two per game is okay but interceptions (1.7), clearances(2.9) and crosses (0.1) are fairly poor. Verdict: Monitor, could be a cheap playing option.
Joel Ekstrand: 4.0 – He should be a red flag, as is out until December with a knee injury. Up until that point he had been a consistent starter and could be a cheap option if re-structuring in the second half of the season. Over 23 starts he managed 5.4 clearances, and 2.2 interceptions, which is pretty good, although only one tackle a game is poorer than others. Verdict: Avoid, but revisit his injury situation in the new year.

Midfield

Etienne Capoue: 5.0 – Watford’s new record signing is expected to take up the position of a defensive midfielder, a poor-scoring role within the Fantasy Premier League game.Verdict: Better options at his price.
Almen Abdi: 5.0 – Most fans would pick playmaker Abdi as the man most suited to the Premier League. Probably only still with Watford rather than a larger club because of an injury which kept him out of most of the 2013-14 season. He will be the Hornets’ number one free-kick taker (which he is very capable of), and likely corner taker too. He notched nine goals over 28 starts last season, including the goal of the season. Surprisingly, though, he managed only two assists last season, but managed 12 goals and eight assists in 2012-13. Verdict: Good cheap midfield option.
Daniel Tozser: 5.0 – Although not announced by the club yet, he has said he is leaving. Which is a shame, because he managed to tuck away five wonderful free kicks last season. Verdict: Avoid
Diego Fabbrini: 4.5 – Can dribble for days, but lacks any real end product. He spent last season on loan, where he managed just one goal in 11 starts. He is expected to be shipped out again this season. Verdict: Avoid.
Ben Watson: 4.5 – Arrived in January to add some harrying alongside the playmakers. He is a likely starter, with 19 starts in the second half of last season, although the arrival of Capoue may threaten his position. He is unlikely to be favoured by the FPL scoring system. Verdict: Better options at his price.
Ikechi Anya: 4.5 – Scotland’s Player of the Year, has pace to burn and is very effective in any wide position. His versatility may work against him, if he’s forced to play in a back four. Although he didn’t score for Watford last season, he did score against Germany for Scotland. He managed seven assists from his 27 starts last season, although his 0.3 crosses a game isn’t as good as you’d think. He did manage five goals and eight assists in the 13-14 season.Verdict: Good cheap midfield option.
Lloyd Dyer: 4.5 – He spent last season on loan, where he managed only one goal in just seven starts. He is expected to follow a similar route this season. Verdict: Avoid.
Lewis McGugan: 4.5 – Was sent out on loan to Sheffield Wednesday last season, where he managed three goals and one assist in 21 starts. He is likely to be out the exit door, but may hang around for his set piece quality. Verdict: Avoid
Sean Murray: 4.5 – This Irish player broke on to the scene back in the 2011/12 season, but has since struggled with form and injuries. He only managed two starts last season due to a serious injury. A loan move away wouldn’t be surprising.
Verdict: Avoid

Forwards

Troy Deeney: 5.5 – Captain, Player of the season and the forward most guaranteed some game time. Having notched over 20 goals in the past three seasons (Including 21 in 37 starts last season) you’d back him to be amongst the goals again. He also contributed nine assists. At 2.9 shots per game, too, it’s no fluke that he’s scoring so much. Likely to be the number one penalty taker as well. Verdict: Great 3rd striker option
Matej Vydra: 5.0 – He grabbed 16 goals and five assists in 31 starts last season but may have to share game time with Odion Ighalo (this happened at the end of last season), and he could frustratingly be subbed off before getting maximum appearance points. But three goals and three assists in seven Premier League games for West Brom in 2013/14 and Championship Player of the Season the year before shows hope for his Premier League potential. Verdict: Monitor, could be a good budget option
Odion Ighalo: 5.0 – He scored 20 goals in 22 starts last season and can’t be ignored despite the threat of rotation. His two shots per game tally is all right and he is capable of a 4-goal haul. If you have him at the right time, he could be a great differential. Verdict: Monitor, once he scores one he could get loads.
Fernando Forestieri: 4.5 – The most skilled player in the squad with five goals and four assists in 10 starts. He is likely to play in the second second striker role, and could thrive in a 4-2-3-1. However, he has struggled with niggling injuries, hence the 10 starts, but if he can get a decent run of form together, he could be a risk that really pays off. Verdict: One for the risk takers, could be a cheap option that gives a big return.

33 Comments Login to Post a Comment

J0E
10 years, 4 months ago
Great analysis. Such a shame their early fixtures are poor. Deeney and Angella certainly ones to watch though.
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1. Cesc, Drogs & Rock and …
  10 years, 4 months ago
  The fixtures are the only things stopping me from picking Deeney; have gone with Wilson for the kind Cherries start.
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  1. J0E
    10 years, 4 months ago
    Same here. Deeney looks the best bet to do an Austin/Ings/Holt but not with those fixtures early on.
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2. Red Wasabi
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Jonty, how many goals do you think Deeny would score this season?
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  1. dribbler
    10 years, 4 months ago
    I'll guess 8
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3. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Thanks for posting Jonty. I agree fixtures aren't in our favour - but someone like Igahlo if he starts scoring could be fixture-proof for a while, stuff just goes in off him when he's in a hot streak!
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Kings of Lyon ★
10 years, 4 months ago
If Anya can nail down a spot he'll be the 4.5 to have imo
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1. Cesc, Drogs & Rock and …
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Totally agree: he's in my squad as it stands.
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2. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Yeah I agree, keep an eye on him, not too sure yet how favoured he is by the new manager.
  
  There's always Forestieri if you fancy a risk too!
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Messi & fabregas
10 years, 4 months ago
well done

i wish it can be done for all promoted sites in this depth
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1. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Thanks, glad you enjoyed reading.
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GHB
10 years, 4 months ago
Not bad but wouldn't call Angella a safe pick. Cathcart our best defender by a mile last season so if he plays 4 at the back it could be him and Prodl.
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1. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Just looking over past seasons he is our most consistent starter at the back, and Ekstrand when fit. It is hard to call, with Prodl coming in and Angella and Cathcart being handed long term contracts. And, of course, the unknown Quique Sanchez Flores factor! But I'd say Angella is about as safe as you can call it.
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  1. GHB
    10 years, 4 months ago
    Angella was exceptional in his first season but a little inconsistent last season. I think Cathcart surprised everyone last season as was probably only signed from Blackpool as a back up and ended up our best defender and 3rd in player of year - and rightly so. If Angella plays like he did in his first season, he will probably get the nod, especially as he looked like scoring at every set piece. Like you say though, the QSF factor is unknown and he may rate one more than the other regardless of last seasons performances.
    
    Either way I know my rank will suffer this season - I already have Gomes, abdi and Ighalo in my squad! Let's hope for a great season from us......4th from bottom 😉
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Philmatic
10 years, 4 months ago
As a fellow Watford fan, I agree with most of this especially with Ighalo's prone to scoring streaks but bits.

1. Prodl is the only nailed on CB. Unless he performed badly, he was brought in as an experienced top flight no nonsense defender who should be better than both Cathcart and Angella in ability based on his career. Therefore I think its Angella/Cathcart that could be rotated and Prodl is the nailed on one

2. Anya isn't good enough to start every week, I think he'll be a back up option to hopefully a new winger

3. Though I think Gomes will be first choice, I can see him being rotated with Arlauskis occasionally as he seems a too capable goalkeeper to be kept on the bench for 38 GWs.

But most of it I agree
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1. GHB
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Anya is our most frustrating player in the squad. Seems a different player when playing for Scotland.
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2. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Not sure about Prodl being nailed on. Signed on a free, and Cathcart and Angella both given long term contracts. Its one to monitor over preseason I guess, but Angella always seems to be favoured whoever the manager.
  
  I'd say in current squad (now that Nyom and Behrami have arrived as well) Anya is less likely to be utilised at the back, but is probably still favoured to be on one of the wings in a 4-2-3-1. But if we sign another winger, as we've been linked to, that could change.
  
  Yeah we may have the occasional keeper rotation, but think Gomes will start the most.
  
  But, who knows really, QSF may decide to change everything!
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Shearer & Sutton
10 years, 4 months ago
Great analysis. I think for me Deeney. Bournemouth have better fixtures than Watford. But because I already have Ritchie my budget forward is Deeney.
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1. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Glad you enjoyed reading. Personally I'd have Abdi over Ritchie, and save yourself 0.5. But, I am biased!
  
  To be honest I think every fixture is a toughie for all us promoted teams.
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jj4eva186
10 years, 4 months ago
So is Abdi going to be nailed on in the CAM position then? I can't understand why he's only priced at 3.5 million in the sky game.
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1. Philmatic
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Abdi is nailed on but bewarned, can be very injury prone
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  1. jj4eva186
    10 years, 4 months ago
    Great, thanks!
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2. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Yeah, should be nailed - though me may find himself in the 2 of a 4-2-3-1 occasionally. But should be number one set piece taker, and he can hit a free kick, so should be good value on Sky.
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dribbler
10 years, 4 months ago
thanks for doing this poosbrown...I always hope the promoted teams can shake things up...it's very useful that you went through all the players so thoroughly...very interesting food for thought

unfortunately I come to this debate as a miserable cynic rather than as an enthusiastic Watford fan

like Philistieri I'm struggling to believe that Prodl might be a reserve unless he starts really badly and gets dropped...he's proven at a high level in a way that that last season's Watford defenders are not...and I'd say the same about Holebas who kept an admittedly aging Ashley Cole out of the Roma team who were, I think, second in Serie A...and if they play 3 at the back he'll surely still be in the team at wing-back

so I'm not dead set against having a Watford defender per se but we've been fortunate to get players from Leicester, Sunderland and other established teams at the same price...so I doubt I'll be going near the promoted teams defenders

and when I think about Deeney I can't help remembering the £5.5m Sylvan Ebanks-Blake who scored 25 goals in the Championship, was heavily touted on this site and was just one of a great many good championship players who did nothing in the premier league...so is he the new Ebanks-Blake or the new Rickie Lambert?...after all you can get Sakho for £1.0m more and I'd say he's a much safer pick and more upside as well...I really need to see Deeney get several goals and Watford playing well to even think about considering him seriously

nor do I agree that Ighalo "can't be ignored"...despite his impressive stats in England he was well established as a player who is NOT prolific in Spain so he's not for me

things change every season though...some teams will do unexpectedly well and one or two cheap players will attract attention...it's perfectly possible I'll have a Watford player at some point and I'll certainly be keeping your article for reference...so thanks again
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1. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Thanks for the response Dribbler.
  
  Firstly - I totally agree that there are better options in some of the more establish premier league teams. I just know some people like to take a risk in the new boys, so would lay out what I know. Unfortunately I will always see things through yellow-tinted glasses!
  
  I also would say our defence is probably worth avoiding - we don't really do clean sheets ( no 0-0s last season!) In actually more interested if Hoban can get some game time - as gives me a cheap, playing 5th defender.
  
  Prodl was signed on a free, and we gave Angella and Cathcart 4 & 5 year contracts they all seem to be equally valued there. Angella has always been favoured throughout our many managers, so I would back him to be most secure again. Is also most likely to give attacking returns.
  
  Holebas, I concede, probably will start even at wing back. But that left wing back position has often been Anyas, so there is more obvious competition there than at straight left back. He could be a decent option though, has some promising stats.
  
  The fact that Deeney has hit 20 3 seasons running makes me confident he is more Lambert than Ebanks Blake (who only had his one season of goals). But the premier league could of course be a step too far, but most Watford fans aren't willing to admit that yet!
  
  Re. Igahlo, for him, and Vydra as well, I wouldn't say have him in your team now. But they are capable of hitting streaks - if they get one Id be tempted to jump on it.
  
  But then again, I currently have Forestieri in my team - so shows how misguided I am!
  
  Thanks for adding a necessary dose of realism to my optimism.
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  1. dribbler
    10 years, 4 months ago
    yeah of course they've got a new RB now so it's perfectly possible that they'll (you'll) be pretty good defensively...but it's the risk that I really care about...and with a new manager I'll be looking at their style of play when the season starts...for example if I could nail down a £4.5m Stoke defender I'd still not get him...they're an attacking team if you ask me
    
    thanks for that info on Deeney...actually I always peep at wikipedia but you make a fair point about his consistency...but again I just think that slightly more expensive players like Sakho/Diouf/Berahino/Cisse are much stronger options for the start of the season at least...make a guesstimate for overall team goals from these teams and watford and you'll see how I'm thinking...most likely the watford guys will struggle to make him the chances
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Mathematically Safe
10 years, 4 months ago
Really like this, it's so important to get an inside track on the promoted teams because even with the greatest will in the world I'm working off the headline numbers only, which is often only half the story. Thanks.
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1. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Thanks, glad you got some value out of it!
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Get up ya bum
10 years, 4 months ago
Nice article Mr poobrown
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1. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  Thanks! Hope you enjoyed reading.
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Sean.
10 years, 4 months ago
Thanks, nice read
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1. p00sbrown
  10 years, 4 months ago
  No worries, thanks for reading.
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Charlesworth
10 years, 4 months ago
I am no expert on the Championship but 20 goals in 22 was enough to turn my eye to Ighalo. Statistically he's up there with Aguero, albeit at a much lower level. I am a bit concerned that the new manager will play him in a more withdrawn role which might reduce his goal tally, what do you think ? I notice that he has scored in pre-season. Who do you think will score more, Deeney or Ighalo ? I will try him out and see how he gets on.
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