Ahead of the two-week international break many managers will be considering refreshing their squad through two free transfers and hits or playing their first Wildcard. This is a good time to do this to take advantage of price changes as well as transfer deadline day developments. With this in mind this article discusses some important considerations for managers during the international break.
Team Value
Last year having significantly greater team value was arguably less useful than it had been previously, as Harry Kane gave managers a cheap option for the captain’s armband throughout the season. This was compounded by some of the most expensive Fantasy assets (Sergio Aguero, Diego Costa and Daniel Sturridge) being frequently injured, while others (Wayne Rooney and Yaya Toure) were played out of position or were out of form. Fluctuations in player prices also seemed far less frequent and of a lower magnitude than in previous seasons, which meant players such as Kane and QPR striker Charlie Austin remained relatively cheap throughout the season.
This year transfer value appears to be more important again. Firstly, as of yet, no ultra-cheap captaincy option has emerged. Secondly, the introduction of the bench boost chip could reward managers who can afford to invest more in their bench players during the second half of the season.
This Season’s Market
Historically one of the biggest opportunities for Fantasy managers to increase their transfer kitty was while playing the Wildcard. Although the weekly price rise cap of 0.3 has been fairly consistent, it was only a few seasons ago that managers could expect several players to rise by 0.2 in the first half of a week. This meant that during a Gameweek unwanted players could be re-sold for 0.1 profit and the profits reinvested in other players for the second half of the week in the hope they too would achieve a 0.2 rise. Finally, at the very end of the week, managers could sell on any players bought purely to make a profit and invest in a team that they wanted for the upcoming games.
Although the price rises seem to be occurring more frequently this year than last, they are still nowhere near the rate of two to three seasons ago. For example, so far this week only Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez has risen by 0.2 and he is a player that I would imagine most managers will want to keep long term. This reduction in the rate of price rises makes bringing in players purely because they’re due to rise in price much less profitable over a single Wildcard week, as very few rise by the 0.2 necessary for managers to re-sell them for a profit during this period.
One way to combat the slower rate of price rises may be to play the Wildcard during a two-week international break. This may afford managers the opportunity to employ the strategy above to make a profit on players while dodging any price drops. However an important consideration is that managers still only gain one free transfer for this two-week period and so, unless lots of managers have been saving transfers with the international break in mind, the number of price rises and drops for the coming Gameweek may remain consistent.
Since increasing team value is still harder than it has been previously, the most important way to maximise team value is surely to avoid the price drops (which also seem to be happening with a far greater frequency). So far this season around 240 players have dropped in price by 0.1 or more, whereas only 26 have risen in price. Selling players before they drop in price should allow managers to maximise their team value for the second half of the season and therefore make the most of the bench boost chip.
Monitoring Price Changes
There are many websites that offer tools to help managers monitor price changes. Although none can predict them with 100% accuracy, I find this to be the simplest and most reliable tool. Another strategy is to pre-empt the market and plan early by judging the mood of the Fantasy Football community while studying your own players, their fixtures and form. A premium-priced player with reasonable ownership that doesn’t deliver big returns for several weeks is likely to drop in value, especially if alternatives are hitting a purple patch or returning to fitness. For example price drops of Eden Hazard and Rooney this week were quite predictable and so could have been avoided by those playing Wildcards last week.
Balancing Team Value with Total Score
Some players play the game with the sole purpose of increasing team value, this manager for example has already taken 18 hits at the expense of 72 points this season! With a kitty of 102.8 after just four weeks employing this strategy a manger can be expected to achieve a team value of close to 120.0 before the double Gameweeks at the end of the season.
This would allow them to have a line up such as this: Romero, Mignolet; Koscielny, Azpilicueta, Kompany, Smalling, Clyne; Hazard, Silva, Sánchez, Mahrez, Chadli, Sturridge, Costa, Agüero!
Although the team looks good on paper, in a few short weeks it is obviously not going to make up the points deficit of 400-700 points caused by all the hits taken previously. However, by employing a more balanced strategy of increasing team value by making substitutions that are also intended to increase weekly scores (even by taking the occasional four-point hit) mangers could still expect to have a team value of around 110.0 towards the end of the season. This could be critical in making the most of both the chips and the double Gameweeks this year.
8 years, 6 months ago
the price market is looking like evening out so far. Lots of quick moves post Gwk 4, people then wait on injuries and then there will be a huge flurry of transfers the day or two before Gwk 5. Still a good time to wildcard, but I think the days of lots of 0.2 risers that you are happy to dump are gone.