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Team Value Options During The International Break

Ahead of the two-week international break many managers will be considering refreshing their squad through two free transfers and hits or playing their first Wildcard. This is a good time to do this to take advantage of price changes as well as transfer deadline day developments. With this in mind this article discusses some important considerations for managers during the international break.

Team Value

Last year having significantly greater team value was arguably less useful than it had been previously, as Harry Kane gave managers a cheap option for the captain’s armband throughout the season. This was compounded by some of the most expensive Fantasy assets (Sergio Aguero, Diego Costa and Daniel Sturridge) being frequently injured, while others (Wayne Rooney and Yaya Toure) were played out of position or were out of form. Fluctuations in player prices also seemed far less frequent and of a lower magnitude than in previous seasons, which meant players such as Kane and QPR striker Charlie Austin remained relatively cheap throughout the season.

This year transfer value appears to be more important again. Firstly, as of yet, no ultra-cheap captaincy option has emerged. Secondly, the introduction of the bench boost chip could reward managers who can afford to invest more in their bench players during the second half of the season.

This Season’s Market

Historically one of the biggest opportunities for Fantasy managers to increase their transfer kitty was while playing the Wildcard. Although the weekly price rise cap of 0.3 has been fairly consistent, it was only a few seasons ago that managers could expect several players to rise by 0.2 in the first half of a week. This meant that during a Gameweek unwanted players could be re-sold for 0.1 profit and the profits reinvested in other players for the second half of the week in the hope they too would achieve a 0.2 rise. Finally, at the very end of the week, managers could sell on any players bought purely to make a profit and invest in a team that they wanted for the upcoming games.

Although the price rises seem to be occurring more frequently this year than last, they are still nowhere near the rate of two to three seasons ago. For example, so far this week only Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez has risen by 0.2 and he is a player that I would imagine most managers will want to keep long term. This reduction in the rate of price rises makes bringing in players purely because they’re due to rise in price much less profitable over a single Wildcard week, as very few rise by the 0.2 necessary for managers to re-sell them for a profit during this period.

One way to combat the slower rate of price rises may be to play the Wildcard during a two-week international break. This may afford managers the opportunity to employ the strategy above to make a profit on players while dodging any price drops. However an important consideration is that managers still only gain one free transfer for this two-week period and so, unless lots of managers have been saving transfers with the international break in mind, the number of price rises and drops for the coming Gameweek may remain consistent.

Since increasing team value is still harder than it has been previously, the most important way to maximise team value is surely to avoid the price drops (which also seem to be happening with a far greater frequency). So far this season around 240 players have dropped in price by 0.1 or more, whereas only 26 have risen in price. Selling players before they drop in price should allow managers to maximise their team value for the second half of the season and therefore make the most of the bench boost chip.

Monitoring Price Changes

There are many websites that offer tools to help managers monitor price changes. Although none can predict them with 100% accuracy, I find this to be the simplest and most reliable tool. Another strategy is to pre-empt the market and plan early by judging the mood of the Fantasy Football community while studying your own players, their fixtures and form. A premium-priced player with reasonable ownership that doesn’t deliver big returns for several weeks is likely to drop in value, especially if alternatives are hitting a purple patch or returning to fitness. For example price drops of Eden Hazard and Rooney this week were quite predictable and so could have been avoided by those playing Wildcards last week.

Balancing Team Value with Total Score

Some players play the game with the sole purpose of increasing team value, this manager for example has already taken 18 hits at the expense of 72 points this season! With a kitty of 102.8 after just four weeks employing this strategy a manger can be expected to achieve a team value of close to 120.0 before the double Gameweeks at the end of the season.

This would allow them to have a line up such as this: Romero, Mignolet; Koscielny, Azpilicueta, Kompany, Smalling, Clyne; Hazard, Silva, Sánchez, Mahrez, Chadli, Sturridge, Costa, Agüero!

Although the team looks good on paper, in a few short weeks it is obviously not going to make up the points deficit of 400-700 points caused by all the hits taken previously. However, by employing a more balanced strategy of increasing team value by making substitutions that are also intended to increase weekly scores (even by taking the occasional four-point hit) mangers could still expect to have a team value of around 110.0 towards the end of the season. This could be critical in making the most of both the chips and the double Gameweeks this year.

Jose's Magic Omelette "Omelettes, eggs. No eggs, no omelettes, and it depends on the quality of the eggs. In the supermarket you have eggs (class I, class II, class III) and some are more expensive than others, and some give you better omelettes. So when the class I eggs are in Waitrose and you cannot go there, you have a problem." --- José Mourinho, 2007

27 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    the price market is looking like evening out so far. Lots of quick moves post Gwk 4, people then wait on injuries and then there will be a huge flurry of transfers the day or two before Gwk 5. Still a good time to wildcard, but I think the days of lots of 0.2 risers that you are happy to dump are gone.

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Market Update!

      Total price changes: 476
      Price rises: 63
      Price falls: 413

      Vs. this point in 2014

      Total price changes: 472
      Price rises: 82
      Price falls: 390

      A slight reduction in the ratio of rises to falls which may or may not persist, but broadly speaking the market is bahaving similarly to last year.

  2. Your Mum's Athletic
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Can tell you took a long time over this, good article! +1

  3. The Orienteer - find me in …
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Very interesting thanks.

  4. Bangarang
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Really good article, well thought out +1. 72 point hit by GW 4 must be some kind of record! I've taken a -4 every week so far to enable me to keep my WC ready for GW 14. Not sure whether that was a smart move or not, time will tell I suppose.

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Some people just play to get the most valuable team and don't care about their OR. Enormous numbers of hits are not unusual for this group. They used to take even more hits when prices used to rise faster, so I doubt whether it's a record.

    2. Jonny Bananas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I'm up to 102.4m TV with 2 hits....dreadful start though, 8 extra points via captains selection and big guns not firing. anyone want to buy to additional team value???

  5. The_Colonel
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Thanks for the great post.
    Avoiding the fallers is really important this year and then bringing them back in at a later stage for a discount.

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Agreed.

  6. Jose's Magic Omelette
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Meant to link to this from RMT's Professor in the article, it's a fantastic comment looking at the value of taking hits to avoid 0.1 losses early in the season.

    http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/11093415

  7. sahayford
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    What is Rodgers thinking?.

  8. John t penguin
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    great point you make about even in international break most people still only use one transfer, so barring loads of injury fuelled panic hits, then the player trading should be the same as normal week. possibly even lower due to maybe a few more WC to account for end of window

  9. The Tinkerman
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    You don't have to lose so many points build value. I have had one 4pt hit so far and have increased my squad value to £102.4 so far. You have to identify them early and take a risk to get any targets in before they increase in price. I was lucky to start with a couple of the bandwagons and risers in my side (such as Mahrez, seemed an obvious choice for a Leicester fan like myself); I expect value to go up again this international break having just bought in Ayew and Pedro. Ayew is the first player I have bought in after a 0.1 price rise, having got Wilson for 5.4 and Darmin, Kolarov, Silva, Aguero and Gomis at their original prices, for example.

    Losing 72 pts to only have 0.4m more than me seems hugely excessive. My main risk has been bringing in player very early (sunday evening), which opens up players to injury in midweek games. But I prefer that risk to dropping so many points. I sit at the 45k mark, before my the last game week and my 4pt his I was 11k. It's been a good start points and value wise.

    My squad now stands as: Courtois, Butland; Kolarov, Darmian, Naughton, Muniesa, Richards; Silva, Pedro, Ayew, Payer, Mahrez, Aguero, Wilson, Gomis.

    1. The Tinkerman
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      *before the last game week and my 4pt hit

      Riddled with typos, oops.

      1. Jose's Magic Omelette
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Just to clarify, I wasn't advocating taking 18 hits in three gameweeks! The team with a 72 point hit (which this week has an even greater value) was merely an example to show one extreme that wouldn't pay off if you want to finish with a high points total!

        Your strategy, while risky, is exactly the sort of thing I was advocating; I too have a value of over £102m having only taken one hit.

  10. Sharkytect
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Very important part of the game. Nice article, thanks JMO

  11. Ivorytoast
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    First year playing FF. I would like to upgrade Shaqiri to Sanchez before Sanchez goes nuts, but am going to have to take a 12 point hit to do so. My other mids are set as well as strikers (Silva, Pedro, Marhez, Shaqiri, Westwood - Wilson, Aguero, Gomis), so I need to clear up 1.5m in my D to get to Sanchez value as I already have the remainder in the bank. D is Clyne, Lovren, Francis, Kolarov, Ward. Should I replace Clyne and Lovren with 4.5's to get Sanchez or wait and use a free transfer the following week to reduce this cost? I already Wildcarded : ( Definitely learning, but learning late here.

    1. Jazz!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      No need for a 12 point hit

      1. Ivorytoast
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        So you think it is safe to sit with the fellas I have or any changes need made? I am concerned about not having the ol' Sanchez machine

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Why not wait until Sanchez goes nuts, and get him in for a free transfer then? No guarantee when that will happen so seems silly to take a hit to bring him in now!

          Plenty of other options you can afford (Ayew, Tadic, Mané, Sako for example) that are already 'going nuts'!

          1. Ivorytoast
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Fair enough sir. May your Magic Omelette continue to flow with sensible words

  12. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Good article - WC immediately at the beginning of the week, identify and track the risers and fallers, buy and sell every day, then sort your final team out last day of the WC week. 101.8 doing just that with no hits

  13. Woy of the Wovers
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    I'm not a fan of chasing TV. It focuses decisions on prices vs points and despite all the claims that a higher late season TV yields more points, I've not seen any convincing evidence that this is even true. Mathematically, I would argue that more money should translate into points and if we assume there is an optimum team who value is £Xm, then increasing your TV towards X will get you closer to this team.

    However, as you approach £Xm, the marginal gains start to become small so you can end up with a near-optimum team with £X-2m. As long as there are cheap, high scoring players, there will always been a relatively cheap near-optimum team out there. My own experience has been that I can usually keep pace with far more expensive teams simply by looking more closely at value picks and I'm inclined to believe that the high TV strategy often leads to more lazy team selection.

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Chasing TV is not like the holy grail, but you have to be mindful of it and during a WC week you should fill your boots 🙂 - why waste the opportunity to buy a player that is obviously going to rise and then sell him for the actual player you want and bank an extra .1 ? No brainier really, same as dumping a potential price drop and buying it back - look at Wilson

      1. Woy of the Wovers
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        I can't disagree with that. But I thought the price drop thing was an obvious way to maximise WC value. The price rise gambit of buying a double-riser is a bit of a mirage. Can't remember when I last got this to work - as you say, you'll usually want to keep those players.

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah the double rises aren't really on anymore but I think this makes avoiding drops during the wildcard a must, everything to gain and nothing to lose (save a few minutes every night).

  14. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Agreed