Form or Fixtures – Where to place your trust

The continued failure of a significant number of the traditional “heavy hitters” this season has seen the debate of “form” or “fixtures” again rise to the surface. Whilst players such as Swansea’s hitmen Bafetimbi Gomis (7.4m) and Andre Ayew (7.2m) continue to sparkle, despite relatively tough fixtures on paper, old favourites such as Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney (10.4m) and Chelsea’s Eden Hazard (11.4m) huff and puff with minimal returns from supposedly much easier fixtures. 

This has meant that of the top 10 highest scoring midfielders in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL), only two, Yaya Toure and David Silva, could be conceded heavy hitters. Just two of the top eight strikers in FPL points were priced at or above 8m originally (Romelu Lukaku now at 8.2m and Graziano Pelle at 8.0m). It’s also an anomaly this year that home teams have struggled so much – from 40 games played, there have only been nine wins for home teams (and 44 goals scored) compared to 17 wins (and 55 goals scored) for the away teams.

Both of these issues have made it much harder than in previous seasons to predict where the points will be coming from. So should we trust form or fixtures in choosing our teams?

The four form and fixture categories

1. Good form and good fixtures

2. Bad form and difficult fixtures

3. Good form and difficult fixtures

4. Bad form and good fixtures.

The first two of these categories are easy to assess – generally, you should be targeting players with good form and good fixtures, and avoiding those with bad form and difficult fixtures.  That’s the simple part. The tough part is understanding those players whose form defies their bad fixtures and those that are failing to prosper from a great run of games.

Good form but tough fixtures

In relation to players with good form and difficult fixtures, this campaign has already shown that we should retain our trust in their form and keep them in our teams. With the traditional heavy hitters struggling for form, and teams such as Man United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all making a stuttering and inconsistent start to the season, a significant number of the players and teams that hit the ground running from the first week have continued their form, bringing in points by the bucketload to their owners.

This approach, for example, would have suggested bringing in Andre Ayew and Bafetimbi Gomis for the match against Man United last weekend, rather than backing Liverpool’s main threats at home to West Ham. Hindsight is a marvelous thing, but the signs were there. Swansea had already scored two against Chelsea this season and Gomis had yet to blank ahead of that game. Liverpool meanwhile were still struggling for goals, even during easy games. The Bournemouth game in Gameweek 2 should have set alarm bells ringing as Liverpool struggled to break down the Cherries defence and only one by a single, disputed goal. West Ham’s demolition of Arsenal in Gameweek 1 should also have been a useful guide to West Ham’s potential to shine away from home.

Bad form but good fixtures

This group represents a difficult balancing act for Fantasy managers, of  retaining blind faith in proven players with easy games or realising that no matter who they face their form is too poor to reap rewards.

For example, Wayne Rooney has struggled all season, and has only managed three total shots on target (and five from inside the box) in games against Spurs, Villa, Newcastle and Swansea, so there should be no real surprise on that basis that he is yet to score. Bafetimbi Gomis on the other hand has managed 11 shots in the box and seven shots on target, and as a result has four goals from games against Chelsea, Newcastle, Sunderland and United, scoring in each match. Clearly underlying statistics are crucial here to understanding the nuances of poor form and assessing whether that player will come good or will continue to fire blanks.

Conclusion

For Fantasy Football Scout Members a useful table is this ‘goals imminent’ table which looks at underlying statistics such as shots in the box, and goal attempts on target. If your heavy hitting disappointment features on this list it may be worth hanging onto them for a little while longer. But if, like Wayne Rooney, your premium player is nowhere near this list, then it may be time to bid them farewell and accept that so far at least form is certainly trumping fixtures.