With the international break now over, it’s time to turn our attention towards Gameweek 5 in this regular series that looks at bookies’ odds to see if they can help us predict team and player performance.

Gameweek 5 Bookies Odds

Top 10 captaincy options according to the FFScout poll

1. Aguero               1. Aguero (4/5)
2. Sanchez             2. Sanchez (4/5)
3. Gomis                3. De Bruyne (29/20)
4. Pedro                 4. Mahrez (6/4)
5. Mahrez               5. Silva (6/4)
6. Wilson                6. Pedro (8/5)
7. Silva                    7. Wilson (13/8)
8. Ayew                    8. Gomis (17/10)
9. De Bruyne          9. Ayew (9/5)
10. Lukaku               10. Lukaku (9/4)

N.B. On the left is the FFScout poll, on the right is the order in which the anytime goalscorer odds are taken into account.

Clean sheet odds

Arsenal (4/6)

West Ham (21/20)

West Brom (21/20)

Chelsea (11/8)

Manchester United (29/20)

Man City (8/5)

Tottenham (8/5)

Leicester (8/5)

Southampton (7/4)

Swansea (19/10)

Norwich (2/1)

Watford (11/5)

Bournemouth (5/2)

Liverpool (3/1)

Newcastle (3/1)

Everton (16/5)

Sunderland (16/5)

Aston Villa (17/5)

Crystal Palace (5/1)

Stoke (7/1)

Fixture Analysis

Everton (16/5) vs Chelsea (5/6)

Everton take on an unpredictable Chelsea side in the Gameweek’s lunchtime kick-off. Pedro seems to have got Chelsea going up front yet their defence is still very much a mystery compared to last season’s solidarity, conceding nine goals already. Everton have had 9.5 shots a game with only 3.3 of these on target. A player who I fancy to make an impact is Gerard Deulofeu who could be handed his first start of the season. Prediction – a tight affair: 1-1

West Brom (9/5 vs Southampton (6/4)

Both teams come off the back of decent wins going into this tie. West Brom have only had 13 shots on target this season but seem to have been improving recently and James Morrison seems to be their main man right now, with six shots on target, eight chances created and two goals to boot. Southampton have had five goals for and against so far this season. Sadio Mane and Dusan Tadic have been the chief creators with a combined 15 crosses and eight chances created. Prediction: The bookies have Southampton as favourites but I’m predicting: 2-2

Arsenal (1 /4) vs Stoke (10/1)

Arsenal so far this season have struck 20.8 shots per game with 61.7% possession but goals have been in short supply. I feel Olivier Giroud is going under the radar amongst experienced Fantasy managers and it is worth pointing out he sits second in terms of attempts on goal and fourth for penalty box touches despite only playing three full games. Stoke had two red cards in their last game, however this doesn’t mask over the fact that they too are toiling in front of goal, scoring just three so far.  Prediction: Arsenal to finally get going, 3-0

Watford (8/5) v Swansea (8/5)

Both of Watford’s home games have been 0-0 so far but Swansea have mustered the most shots on target of any team, with 30 so far. Watford have only managed 11.8 shots a game, with a disappointing 2.5 on target. Watford striker Troy Deeney has been poor; his 26 penalty box touches seem good but with just two of those on target he needs to improve this soon. Meanwhile, Swansea’s midfield has been extremely impressive, creating 41 chances, four assists and 45 shots on goal. The Swans’ main striker Bafetimbi Gomis is really prospering right now and looks to be fixture proof. Prediction: Swansea to win 1-0

Crystal Palace (9/2) vs Man City (4/7)

Crystal Palace have been extremely efficient so far, with eight goals from just 22 total shots on target. Midfielder Bakary Sako has been superb with 11 shots on target, two goals and an assist. Manchester City are also in fine form with 10 goals and conceding none. New recruit Kevin de Bruyne looks certain to add to their attacking prowess. Prediction: I expect this to be the biggest test for City so far but they should still have enough, 2-1 City

Norwich (11/8) vs Bournemouth (19/10)

Norwich sit in the top half of the table for shots per game (15.3) with five of those on target, yet their defenders have scored three of these. Robbie Brady has been impressive for me, with the most Premier League cross so far (38) and 10 chances created. I feel like Norwich are just missing that bit of quality up front to really make an impact though. Bournemouth are on an upward curve but goalkeeper Artur Boruc’s statistics are worrying. He has conceded six goals and only made five saves, which is horrendous quite frankly. Tyrone Mings and Max Gradel being injured are huge blows so they will need to rely on others to step up. Prediction: 1-1

Man Utd (10/11) vs Liverpool (3/1)

Both teams come off the back of poor results last time out with Liverpool’s awful defensive display against West Ham a big concern for the Reds. Manchester United are the bookies’ favourites (10/11) but United have only mustered 15 shots on target this season, and Wayne Rooney is seemingly lost in the Premier League, despite his international and Champions League successes in recent weeks. New recruit Anthony Martial and David De Gea could be put straight into the team although the former seems likely to start on the bench. Liverpool have lost their chief creator Philippe Coutinho to suspension and they only have a 3.7% conversion rate with striker Christian Benteke looking well off the pace. Prediction: Liverpool have scored under 2.5 goals in 11 of their last 13 away games and expect this trend to continue, I’m going for 1-0 Manchester United

Sunderland (3/1) vs Tottenham (10/11)

These two teams are winless, with Sunderland conceding 10 goals and playing a team who have scored only three. The bookies make Tottenham clear favourites but Sunderland improved defensively in their last game. Looking at their previous meetings, the games have averaged four goals so there could be a surprise in the offing for this one. Tottenham are due a big turnaround in my opinion, and this could be the game to do it. They have 15.3 shots a game with 5.8 on target, which indicates a goal flurry is not far off. Prediction: Tottenham to win 3-1

Leicester (4/5) vs Aston Villa (16/5)

This fixture sees a Midland derby with the home team third in the table. Leicester have scored eight goals with midfieler Riyad Mahrez really standing out so far. He has scored half of his teams goals, attempting 18 crosses with eight chances created, highlighting how important he is to the team. Aston Villa are huge underdogs in this game (16/5) but Scott Sinclair has started to show why he was popular pick in a lot of people’s Gameweek 1 squads, and he has had eight penalty box touches, scoring twice so far. Prediction: 3-1 home win

West Ham (11/10) vs Newcastle United (11/5)

The final fixture of the Gameweek is predicted to be a high-scoring affair, with these two having struck 15 goals between them in their last four matches. But West Ham are playing against statistically the weakest attacking team in the Premier League right now who are also without the suspended Aleksandar Mitrovic. Who will score the goals for Newcastle? Aaron Cresswell has been West Ham’s most consistent player with 13 crosses, seven chances created and two assists.  Newcastle are the joint-lowest scorers with just two goals, but Tim Krul on the other hand, has made 23 saves, which is the highest in the league. This highlights how bad Newcastle have been.  Prediction: I’m expecting a comprehensive home victory: 3-0 West Ham. P.S (11/10) is incredible value for what I believe will be an easy home win for the Hammers.

Captaincy Options

1. Sergio Aguero (4/5) With Aguero scoring twice and assisting three times over the international period, the Argentine comes into this Gameweek with some great international form. Having played on Wednesday morning, and with a Champions League tie on Tuesday, a lot of people are saying he will only play 65 minutes if the game is wrapped up. A timely reminder of his post-international-duty exploits against Tottenham last season shouldn’t deter many from captaining this asset this week, with the underlying stats still strongly in his favour.
2. Alexis Sanchez (4/5) – Sanchez’s stats show that an explosion of points is imminent. Can he finally deliver for his FPL owners? With a home tie against Stoke, he has the potential to do just that. Looking at the stats for this game, an increase in goal conversion for the home side is absolutely key.
3. Punt: Kevin De Bruyne (29/20) – I am amazed that Manchester City’s new recruit sits third in terms of anytime goalscorer markets this Gameweek. Will he start or come on from the bench? That is the big question; the bookies think he’s going to have a big impact either way and have priced him accordingly.

Conclusion

The bookies have both Aguero and Sanchez priced the same to score this weekend; which game is likely to see more goals? You could argue that the Arsenal game will, especially if there is an early goal. Aguero has more owners. If he explodes and the armband is elsewhere, you could be looking at a red arrow. A really difficult captaincy decision this week.