Wilson Replacements: A Trio of Budget Options

Currently sitting in 26% of all Fantasy Premier League (FPL) teams, Bournemouth striker Callum Wilson’s likely injury layoff looks set to hit managers hard. Starting at a low price of 5.5 million and having scored five goals in seven games, Wilson looked set to rival budget priced strikers of years gone by, such as Austin and Kane. But instead is now set for a long spell on the physio table.

As the third, or like myself, second striker to a lot of teams, the question is – who do we replace him with? Some are blessed with money in the bank to be able to afford more expensive options such as Graziano Pelle, Jamie Vardy, Romelu Lukaku or Anthony Martial. But others are going to have to make do with cheaper, sub-6.0m options. This article will look at three options in the below 6.0 bracket, and assess who (if any) can take the mantle as the budget enabler of FPL 2015/16.

Rudy Gestede

Team: Aston Villa

Price (at time of writing): 5.8

Ownership: 0.7%

Gestede signed from Blackburn in the summer having scored 33 goals in 66 appearances over two seasons. When he signed, I thought to myself “This is it”. Having watched Sherwood rejuvenate big centre forwards like Emmanuel Adebayor and Christian Benteke, I thought that Rudy would slot straight into Sherwood’s team and become the key man in the Aston Villa set up.  However, Gestede has managed just 90 minutes in only three out of the seven games so far, preventing him from becoming a real target in my line up. Until this week that is. His two goals against Liverpool could signal the start of something beautiful for Gestede. He has played his part in 50% of Aston Villa’s goals this season, despite his limited minutes, while managing 18 shots (16 inside the box) and 48 touches inside the box. To put this in perspective, Wilson managed 12 shots (11 inside the box) and has had marginally more touches (48). With these kinds of stats, if Gestede can nail down his striker berth, I have no doubt that he will hit 10-15 goals this season with relative ease. The Liverpool game could not have come at a better time for Gestede, and he should now firmly be on people’s radar.

As for his fixtures… I believe there is real potential over the next five. Villa are at home to Stoke before traveling to Chelsea. They then host the Swans before traveling to White Hart Lane before finishing this quintet of fixtures by hosting the blue half of Manchester in Gameweek 12. On paper, this looks like a tough run of fixtures. However, it is important to remember that Stoke and Swansea are both conceding (On average) 1.43 goals a game, Chelsea are conceding a staggering two goals a game and City have conceded six in their last two games. To me, only Spurs here are likely to keep out Villa as Sherwood favours an ‘attack first, defend never’ approach. The fixtures could be kinder, but now Gestede has announced himself onto the Premier League stage with his brace at Anfield, we should take note.

Glenn Murray

Team: Bournemouth

Price (at time of writing): 5.6

Ownership:  0.2%

As a Brighton fan, I know Glenn Murray well. A frustrating player at Brighton, a move to our arch rivals Crystal Palace sparked him into life, and in 2013 he netted 30 times for the Eagles as they achieved promotion. An injury meant he had to wait for his chance in the top flight, but he scored seven goals in 15 appearances for Pardew’s Palace, highlighting his ability to score goals at the highest level in English football.

Likely to lead the line in Wilson’s absence, my only worry is Murray must now adapt to Howe’s style. It is undeniable that Murray’s job last year was made easier by the pace and trickery of the trinity of Wilfried Zaha, Jason Puncheon and Yannick Bolasie, and it may be that Murray has to fashion more chances of his own if he is going to carry on from where Wilson left off. Early signs are good for Murray however. In his 70 minutes against Stoke, he managed three shots (all on target) and had nine touches in the penalty area – right up there with all the ‘top’ strikers in the league. It remains to be seen who will take penalties off of Wilson as he recovers, but it seems likely that Murray and MAtt Ritchie will battle it out for spot kick duty. If he can add this to his locker, Murray becomes even more of an excellent option for our front lines.

Murray’s fixture list is an interesting one. Bournemouth host Watford this week, before travelling away to Man City still licking their wounds from their 4-1 defeat to Spurs. A home encounter with Spurs precedes a trip to Southampton before hosting leaky Newcastle. As previously mentioned, Spurs will present a challenge and Watford may also prove to be a banana skin for Bournemouth, as they are conceding just 0.86 goals a game. However, Southampton who are conceding (on average) 1.3 goals a game and Newcastle who are conceding 1.6 goals a game as well as a sorry looking Man City defence may make up for this. Again, fixtures could be kinder, but Bournemouth are known for their clever, attacking style and with Murray looking assured of starts in Wilson’s absence, he could prove to be a shrewd investment.

Odion Igahlo

Team: Watford

Price (at time of writing): 5.1

Ownership: 6.8%

Coming in at the cheapest player of this list, and with an ownership of just 6.8%, Igahlo looks like the perfect replacement for Wilson, although he is not as much of a differential as the other two players I have mentioned.

I, like many investors, was disappointed with Igahlo’s failure to score against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 7, but the Watford team sheet fills me with optimism as I see him leading the line on his own with Troy Deeney and the other players dropping in behind him to allow him more freedom to get forward. This season, Igahlo has managed a staggering 20 shots (16 in the box) with eight on target. His goal conversion of 20% pales in comparison to Wilson’s (41%) but is the highest of the trio in this list. It’s worth noting that Igahlo has also created four big chances for team mates who have not converted. This is a great number for such a cheap striker.

Watford’s fixtures are also the kindest of the trio. A trip to Bournemouth who are conceding (on average) 1.58 goals a game precedes a trip to Arsenal, where the Gunners have conceded a goal a game.  This potential banana skin then leads to a favourable trio of fixtures where the Hornets play Stoke away, before hosting a West Ham side who seem to be struggling against ‘lesser’ opposition and have conceded 1.3 goals a game so far. Their fifth game is against Leicester who cannot defend to save their lives at the moment. Not only have they conceded in every game so far, they are letting in on average two goals a game. There really is potential here for Igahlo to continue to plunder the goals as the year comes to a close.

My only reservation about Igahlo is Watford’s apparent focus on defence. Watford have shipped considerably less goals (6) than Bournemouth (11) and Villa (12) but have also hit the net less times. With the next five games looking so crucial for Watford’s survival, I would not be surprised to see a number of 1-0 or even 0-0 results. To me, Igahlo is the safe choice of the three, but there is more chance of an explosion if you plump for one of the other two forwards mentioned.