What the Bookies Say – Gameweek 8

Welcome to the latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results. Following on from my review of Gameweek 7, let’s delve straight into my Gameweek 8’s predictions based on what the bookies say.

Captaincy

The list below features the top ten most popular picks according to the Fantasy Football Scout captaincy poll on the left, with how they line up based on bookies’ odds, on the right. On the far right (as promised) we have the odds as decimals.

1. Sergio Aguero                1. Sergio Aguero (½)                  1.50

2. Kevin De Bruyne            2. Kevin De Bruyne (4/5)            1.80

3. Dimitri Payet                   3. David Silva (6/5)                      2.20

4. Alexis Sanchez               4. Daniel Sturridge (13/10)        2.30

5. Jamie Vardy                     5. Alexis Sanchez (13/10)          2.30

6. Riyad Mahrez                   6. Diafra Sakho (6/4)                  2.50

7. Daniel Sturridge              7. Harry Kane (8/5)                     2.60

8. David Silva                        8. Jamie Vardy (13/8)                 2.63

9. Diafra Sakho                    9. Riyad Mahrez (2/1)                 3.00

10. Harry Kane                    10. Dimitri Payet (21/10)             3.10

With a home-tie against Newcastle, it’s no surprise the bookies have priced up Manchester City and the top three in the poll at the shortest odds this week. Daniel Sturridge stands out for all the wrong reasons, priced at 13/10, he doesn’t offer much value even with a Merseyside Derby fixture. A blank in his last fixture, one that does stand out is a certain Riyad Mahrez (2/1). His odds have been much shorter in recent weeks and I’m willing to back him in what should be an end-to-end game at Norwich.

Captaincy Analysis

1. Sergio Aguero – The late penalty will hopefully give the Argentine some much needed confidence, he registered 8 shots in the Champions League tie with 4 of those on target and with the plum tie of the week (NEW) he is the standout captain choice this weekend.

2. Alexis Sanchez – The in-form Chilean takes on Manchester United with Luke Shaw injured and Valencia forgetting what the offside rule is in midweek means we could see Young LB and Darmian switched back to his favoured RB slot, alternatively Jones could come into the CB with Blind pushed out to LB, either way it’s a make-shift back four and Alexis could exploit this handsomely.

Clean Sheets

Man City (17/20)

Crystal Palace (11/10)

Chelsea (11/8)

Aston Villa (8/5)

Bournemouth (17/10)

Arsenal (7/4)

West Ham (21/10)

Tottenham (21/10)

Stoke (9/4)

Everton (23/10)

Norwich (2/1)

Swansea (11/5)

Liverpool (12/5)

Sunderland (13/5)

Leicester (14/5)

West Brom (16/5)

Watford (10/3)

Manchester United (17/5)

Southampton (4/1)

Newcastle (10/1)

The Matches

Here are my own personal predictions for Gameweek 8 using the bookmakers’ odds as one of a number of guides.

Crystal Palace (4/5) vs West Brom (19/5)

Palace started off the season at a frantic pace but have died down of late, despite a win last time out against Watford. West Brom are the only team to not concede a goal away from home this season, their attack is hit one week and miss the next, last weeks game is a great example, taking a 2-0 lead then proceeding to lose 3-2. Yohan Cabaye is the main man for Palace, he keeps things ticking over nicely and with pens and some Fks in his locker, I’m expecting him to be instrumental in this fixture. Prediction: 2-1 home win

Man City (2/9) vs Newcastle (12/1)

City have dropped to 2nd in the table after consecutive defeats, conceding 6 in the process whereas Newcastle managed a 2-2 draw with Chelsea, offering some encouragement to Steve McClaren and their fans. The main man in this game is a certain Kevin De Bruyne, 2 goals in 2 starts and with Pellegrini admitting that Yaya Toure and David Silva are still not 100%, expect KDB to get 90 minutes this weekend. I also fancy him to score and am prepared to back him at (4/5). This game can only go one way surely? Prediction: 3-1

Aston Villa (29/20) vs Stoke (19/10)

Both teams will feel like they can get 3 points from this weekend, Stoke put in a solid performance against Bournemouth, although Bournemouth did have Wilson out for a large part of the game. Villa created lots of chances upfront against Liverpool and I get the feeling that both teams will be reliant on their attackers to bail them out. I think this will be a scoring draw. Prediction: 1-1

Sunderland (19/10) vs West Ham (11/8)

Sunderland sit firmly at the bottom of the table and I see no hope for them this season. West Ham fought back for a draw against a tidy Norwich side and their away form speaks for itself, they prefer playing away from home and I see nothing but an away win. If results go their way, they could be top by the end of the GW! Diafra Sakho has 3 goals this season and has a nice partnership with Payet. I’m backing him to score (6/4) Prediction: 1-3 away win

Norwich (5/4) vs Leicester (21/10)

Norwich seem to be picking up some momentum this season and looked good value in their draw against West Ham this week. Norwich have some quality midfielders in their ranks, especially Hoolahan and Matt Jarvis. Leicester decided to go toe-to-toe with Arsenal and it ended with a heavy 5-2 defeat. I think they look great going forward with Mahrez and Vardy linking up particularly well. I’m highlighting Nathan Redmond out for this game, he has real star quality and I expect him to be involved in everything Norwich do this weekend. I foresee lots of goals in this one. Prediction: an exciting 2-2 draw

Bournemouth (19/20) vs Watford (14/5)

How much will Bournemouth miss Callum Wilson? Well I think the answer is a hell of a lot. They will now be extremely reliant on Matt Ritchie to provide the creative spark and goals they will miss from Wilson. Watford lost last time out but from their own mistake giving away a penalty, they still look dangerous moving forwards with Ighalo looking the most threatening, Deeney has some good underlying stats but looks lost at times. I think the Wilson injury will prove detrimental for Bournemout with Watford edging this tie. Prediction: 1-2 away win

Chelsea (7/10) vs Southampton (19/5)

What on earth has happened to Chelsea? They look a mid-table side at best right now and for the life of me, I cannot understand why Maureen is persevering with Ivanovic, he seems to be at fault for conceding a goal a game at the moment. Southampton meanwhile, picked up a routine win last time out and I must say the addition of Van Dijk has improved their defence solidarity remarkably so. I really think Chelsea will struggle again this weekend and I certainly back Southampton to score. Prediction: 1-1 (very tempting to put Saints win)

Everton (8/5) vs Liverpool (13/8)

The Merseyside Derby takes place on Sunday and Everton are ahead of their rivals in the table (5th vs 9th). Liverpool don’t seem to have any identity right now and that is a big concern, they are boosted by the return of Daniel Sturridge but I’m not willing to back him at (13/10). There is traditionally goals in this fixture but I think the majority of those will go to the man in blue. Prediction: 2-1 home win

Swansea (17/10) vs Tottenham (8/5)

Tottenham beat Manchester City 4-1 but the scoreline is very flattering, the amount of offside goals was laughable from the officials. Swansea have not scored for 2 games in a row now but with 3 home games in October, they will be back in the goals, including in this one. One man who is has shone is Eric Dier, listed at 5.1m in FPL, he has looked impressive playing as DM. He has played every game this season and is instrumental in keeping Tottenham ticking over. Prediction 1-1

Arsenal (EVS) vs Man Utd (14/5)

Arsenal put 5 against an attacking and open Leicester in their last fixture but I would not expect LVG to allow Arsenal the same space in this game. Sanchez finally rewarded his owners with a hat-trick and another goal/assist in midweek but could find life trickier this weekend. Arsene Wenger has said he is now 100% and is clearly the danger man. United have scored 3 goals in their last 3 games, they sit atop the table and good results in their next 3 tricky fixtures (including this one) then United will be major title contenders in my opinion. Prediction: 1-1

Top Tips

Each week I offer up two potential bets. N.B. Please bet responsibly, if you are even doing so in the first place.

Kevin De Bruyne (4/5)

Diafra Sakho (6/4)         >      anytime goalscorer treble @ 11/1

Jamie Vardy (13/8)

West Ham                      >       win double @ 8.5/1

Watford