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Vardy And Mahrez – Are They Season Keepers?

Ahead of Gameweek 11 there was much deliberation amongst Fantasy Football managers about whether it was wise to field both Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez against a West Brom defence that has looked relatively strong this season. With Harry Kane hitting form and the similarly priced Wilfried Bony of Manchester City, Everton’s Romelu Lukaku and Southampton striker Graziano Pelle having great fixtures and underlying statistics, something had to give.

While I felt it was too early to turn my back Vardy or Mahrez against West Brom, deciding whether to keep bench or sell one or both from Gameweek 14 (MUN, swa, CHE, eve, liv, MCI) will be a more difficult decision.

The Case for Keeping Vardy

Vardy’s high goalscoring returns look sustainable in the long term because (in contrast to strikers such as Anthony Martial earlier in the season) his goals have come as a result of more shots, and therefore more shots on target per game as opposed to a sky-high conversion rate.

vardyconversion

*minimum of 5 appearances.

Comparing Vardy’s shots per game to shots on target per game ratio it is close to the trend line (Vardy is represented by the dark green dot to the right of Agüero), so he’s not shooting more accurately than one would expect for a striker. What’s more he averages more shots on target per game than any other player in the league this season.

shots

*minimum of 5 appearances

Comparing Vardy’s shots on target per game to goals per game ratio it is also very close to the trend line, so he has scored the number of goals you would expect of a striker from his shots on target so far this season. Unsurprisingly he averages more goals per game than any other player in the league this season. As long as Vardy keeps getting a similar number of chances to score per game we should expect this goalscoring run to continue.

The Case for Keeping Mahrez

The Algerian’s high-goalscoring returns look sustainable for the same reason as is the case with Vardy. As you can see in the graph above, his shots on target per game to goal per game ratio is also close to the trend line, but what about his assists? When comparing his chances created with assists per game again Mahrez falls close to the trend line between the two variables, suggesting the assists he has returned are due to him creating a similar number of chances per appearance as players like Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva, of Manchester City. As long as he keeps up this creativity we should expect him to continue accruing assist points at the same rate.

Mahrezchances
*minimum of 5 appearances

What about during tough fixtures?

Clearly Mahrez and Vardy are two of the highest scoring players in the game and are bang in form with returns backed up by solid underlying statistics, so why would anyone consider selling or benching them? Well from Gameweek 14 they have a tricky series of fixtures, facing several sturdy defences (MUN, swa, CHE, eve, liv, MCI).

Ahead of Gameweek 11 there were murmurings of discontent among the FFScout community about the prospects of fielding both Mahrez and Vardy against the often watertight West Brom defence. Though I personally wasn’t ready to bench either I did feel less confident of returns from both than I had in previous weeks. Come 5pm on Saturday when Mahrez and Vardy had defied the odds and had scored three goals between them against West Brom I felt some analysis was in order.

When comparing the underlying statistics for both Mahrez and Vardy in Gameweek 11 to those from Gameweeks 1-10 I expected to see a reduction in the underlying statistics. On the contrary, chances created, shots in the box and shots on target, amongst other statistics, were incredibly similar for both Mahrez and Vardy compared to previous weeks. As just one game is an incredibly small smaple size it will be interesting to see what happens against Watford next week, if Mahrez and Vardy can boast similar underlying statistics again then it would seem that they’re fixture-proof.

Season Keepers?

Considering Vardy and Mahrez currently cost just 7.3 and 6.6 respectively and that many managers brought them in for 0.5-1.0 less, they offer serious value. Considering the dearth of low price players who are performing (such as Ayew and Payet) and the failure of many in the premium bracket, most managers could arguably afford to leave both on the bench for the odd tricky fixture and play a fourth defender. I certainly won’t be selling Mahrez or Vardy until I see a drop off in goals, assists and underlying statistics.

As always please do join in the discussion below or on twitter. You can check out bubble charts courtesy of T3T here.

Jose's Magic Omelette "Omelettes, eggs. No eggs, no omelettes, and it depends on the quality of the eggs. In the supermarket you have eggs (class I, class II, class III) and some are more expensive than others, and some give you better omelettes. So when the class I eggs are in Waitrose and you cannot go there, you have a problem." --- José Mourinho, 2007

95 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Fantastic article. I may have benched Mahrez, but I'm mighty glad I haven't off loaded him or Vardy after reading that.

  2. sawant
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Wow, great article thanks for placing this in free section.

  3. andy85wsm
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Yup - no reason to get rid of either while they keep scoring well given how cheap they were/are. I'm happy to play Mahrez in the tricky fixtures and see how it goes.

    Season keepers though? Rarely happens 🙂

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Darren Bent (Sunderland version) - my only ever season keeper in around eight seasons.

    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Charlie Austin says hi.

      Yes, he went through a dip last season, but getting the "timing" right and offloading him was nearly impossible. I seem to recall him burning many a FPL manager when he was benched in "difficult" fixtures. That's the problem with these "cheapies" that have set pieces in their locker(likee Vardy/Mahrez does)

      1. andy85wsm
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        "rarely" says hi 😉

    3. GreenWindmill
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I had John Terry for all 38 weeks last season. Also Victor Moses in 2011/12. Can't remember beyond that though, so 2 players in 4 seasons (and I suspect my figures are unusually high)

      One of the problems is usually injuries - there's a good chance nobody would have got rid of Ramsey/Yaya in their break out season if it weren't for them being forced to sell.

      1. andy85wsm
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Yup, but they always happen which is why they're so rare.

        I had Hazard for 37 weeks last season 🙂

    4. Doolittle
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Don't think I've ever had one, I had Sanchez until around GW32 last season. Maybe a keeper has snuck through once before, could even be Butland this year if I don't switch on either WC.

    5. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I've only ever had one season keeper - Thomas Sorensen (Stoke's bargain penalty-saving specialist) in 2009-10 (my first FPL season).

  4. Clump
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Nice work!

  5. Christina.
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    " I certainly won’t be selling Mahrez or Vardy until I see a drop off in goals, assists and underlying statistics"

    That's the crux of it.

    No one is touching Chelsea asset's due to their form/stats even with upcoming "easy" fixtures. So, we should surely be holding on to Vardy/Mahrez due to their form/stats, even though the fixtures are getting tougher.

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Also from an attacking point of view only MCI and MUN look tough. And that's if Kompany is fit. They scored against Arsenal so can't see Everton or Liverpool being that tough. They could even go crazy for points against Swansea.

      1. Johnny98
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        MUN look tough from an attacking point of view?

        1. KingNidge
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          he means United are defending well

          1. Johnny98
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            Thought so. But even City look culpable defensively when Kompany goes missing and with Clichy returning I can see them leaking the odd goal due to imbalance and carelessness.

    2. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      There's no reason not to. No-one else is performing as well at a similar value, they're highly owned. Think it's way to risky to get rid of them.

  6. Jose's Magic Omelette
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    A good way to think of Mahrez for those vulnerable to big club bias. He's a player with almost identical underlying stats as KdB but he also takes penalties and is 4.0m cheaper!

    1. Johnny98
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      This. But still, people will refuse to give even the most consistent point earners the (C) simply because they're not a 'heavy duty' player, ala Sanchez, KDB, Aguero.

      1. Larry Legend
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Yep, I'm in that category. But feel free to take advantage of people like me and our attachment to the so-called heavy hitters!

  7. KingNidge
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    key is getting on and off these bandwagons at the right time.. i sold Vardy for Lukaku last week because i believe he will soundly outscore him from now till xmas and he's made a good start..

    No such plans to ditch Mahrez though

    1. Johnny98
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Lukaku is far too inconsistent for me.

      1. KingNidge
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        over the years he has been yes but i do believe he is starting to really mature as a player..

        A very happy owner

        1. Johnny98
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          For now

    2. fusen
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Who are your other forwards?

      1. KingNidge
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Kane and Martial

        1. Wimmer winner chicken dinne…
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          you transferred Vardy out for Lukaku over Martial? United fan?

          1. Wheato182
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            ^this^ Man U fans in my league have done the same hahaha

  8. GreenWindmill
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Looks more like Vardy is converting shots on targets to goals at around 25% better than the trend line...

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Penalties.

      1. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Aguero has penalties also as has a number of the other strikers.

        His historical conversion rate is knowhere near what he has been hitting this season either iirc?

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          I'm not bothered too much by historical rates.

          The effects of penalties should have a greater influence on artificially inflating the "conversion rates" of players such as Mahrez (who has scored his two) than it will on the regression, as proportionally very few players from this population of all players in the league take penalties and some other penalty takers have a habit of missing them.

          If someone could direct me to where I can find NPG data I will run the numbers to se if this is in fact the case.

  9. Johnny98
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Have to say, I'm mildly surprised it's even up for debate. I think people are only swayed by the fact they're cheap and play for Leicester, which makes it easier to rationalise benching them or even ditching them for supposedly 'better' players sometimes.

  10. Christina.
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Cue Vardy rest and Ulloa/Okazaki leading the line vs Watford.

    *scenes

    1. Johnny98
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Nah, by now with those Aguero funds lying around most people have a relatively strong bench. Not a big concern.

      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Some of us still own Westwood.

        1. Johnny98
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Oh

    2. Saniul
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Not really, that Watford game is an ideal one to keep his streak going, and being a mid table team anyway, they would want to get as many of those points before the tough stretch starts.

  11. Zion
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Now I'm sad that I sold Mahrez on my WC during the last international break 🙁

  12. Eric Banternaaa
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Save the transfer for after International?

    Also start Dawason (United Away) over Huth (Watford Home)?

    Fabianski
    Bellerin | Azpi | Dawson
    Sanchez | Mahrez | KDB | Payet |
    Pelle | Vardy | Lukaku

    McCarthy | Huth | Hoolahan | Richards

    2.8ITB 1FT

    1. Larry Legend
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Huth; Save FT; Happy days

  13. Patch
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Great article. Thanks. I love those charts.

  14. Larry Legend
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Good article.

    If Vardy stays fit I think he could be worth keeping for the season. Although I expect a dry patch at some point.

    However Mahrez concerns me as a long term option. He was dropped earlier in the season, and the suggestion is that he is workshy and a defensive liability. As a result I think there is a real risk that he could get dropped at some point.

  15. Jose's Magic Omelette
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Totally agree. Considering their prices though I think it's safer to wait for this to happen than try to second guess it. As all those that sold Mahrez and Vardy this week found out, not having them can be very costly!

    1. Larry Legend
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      agreed

  16. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Fantastic article JMO!! 😀

    Both of them are keepers and captain material for sure!

  17. sully29
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    I find it interesting that some people argue that we are only thinking about dropping them because they play for Leicester, as if that doesn't make any sense. Surely the fact that they play for Leicester is rightly a massive factor when it comes to assessing how they'll perform over the course of the season? The overwhelming one I'd have thought.

    Let's be realistic. Leicester are obviously not going to keep up their current form and neither are Mahrez and Vardy. For any of the three to do so would be something akin to a miracle given what they've shown in previous seasons. Leicester aren't anything remotely like a top four side, Vardy isn't one of the best strikers in Europe, Mahrez is't KDB's more talented cousin.

    We *know*, with near absolute certainty, that they're not going to continue like this. So the idea of them both being season keepers seems a massive stretch at this point. And, when it comes to predicting when the inevitable drop off will likely occur, fixtures are surely as good a starting point as any?

    1. TFP
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      pretty much this.

      Vardy is the game's only 'must have' player right now, with Mahrez very much in the little group of players below that in the 'should probably have' category.

      But that sketchy run of fixtures gives very serious cause for concern. I'm keeping a close eye on both of their form.

    2. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I think you've missed the main point of this article. Vardy doesn't need to be 'one of the best strikers in Europe' to carry on scoring goals quickest in this league. He just needs to play in a team where he continues to get more chances to score goals than strikers in other teams.

      Perhaps you also missed a key point at the end of the article? I said that monitoring Mahrez and Vardy's chances created and shots on target amongst other variables will be essential over the coming weeks. Nevertheless at their respective prices Vardy and Mahrez need only continue scoring at about half the rate they are now to justify their value compared to other players.

      I didn't say Leicester would finish in the top four and really that isn't relevant at all. A team can score lots of goals and still finish outside the top four as goals conceded also have an influence on the points they receive.

      In the case of Leicester, we all know they concede for fun as well as scoring heavily so it's entirely possible that Mahrez and Vardy score or assist in games that Leicester lose or draw e.g. exactly what happened when they played Southampton away, Arsenal at home, Stoke away. One could go further and argue this is the Tinkerman's philosophy and was well demonstrated by his decision to go 4-4-2 recently in a game against apparently more defensively solid opposition (GW11). A quick look at an xG model for the Premier League reveals that Leicester are 4th in xG for and 5th in xG against, yet more evidence supporting the notion that they are deliberately sacrificing defensive solidity for attacking returns.

      If Leicester continue with this philosophy it is very likely to lead to more high scoring games for Leicester (in both goals scored and conceded) compared to other teams that try to pass teams to death and take less risks, of course they will likely concede more.

      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        I couldn't have put it any better.

        People have short memories. Austin? QPR?

        🙄

      2. sully29
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Oh sorry, I should have been clearer, that comment wasn't directed towards your article specifically. It was directed at the general notion that we should totally ignore that they play for a team who are certainly going to massively drop off in form, or the idea that we can say they're going to be season keepers at this point.

        You're right, monitoring those underlying stats is essential. My point is that (given we know they are in reality overachieving massively atm) those stats are sure to drop off eventually. I see no reason to think their attacking output will remain unaffected when their form generally declines or the lack of depth in their squad takes its toll. At which point (while they still might be very good value) they become very sellable depending on the alternatives.

        That's why them not being a top four side is relevant. Not because it means they won't still be an attacking team that scores a lot but because (unlike, say, Arsenal) we can be sure that a dramatic overall decline in form is definitely coming.

        1. sully29
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Also, a lot will depend on when you bought them. A Mahrez who was bought at his starting price will be a lot harder to replace (value-wise) than a Mahrez bought this week. Team structure too...

      3. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        These stats showthe most glaring deficiencies of an xG model i.e. it doesn't take into account
        A) game state (Leicester were chasing games how often?) or
        B) fixture difficulty (Leicester have had a very favourable run of fixtures to date) or
        C) Form due to favourable run of fixtures (whats that saying? class is permanent, form is temporary)

        Neither are season keepers for me with Mahrez being the closest to one if he keeps pens and his position. If their form suffers and they stop scoring goals though Ranieri will be all over the tactics like a LVG as he knows they can't keep conceding if they stop scoring which will definitely happen if their form drops off imo. A change in tactics will likely lead to either a more restrained role for Mahrez or bench duties and if Vardy only drops to output which provides decent value then he will be sold by many as you want your strikers to be "in form" and scoring better than their value if possible hence the reason people change them so much.

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Game state, interesting argument but haven't seen anyone go into that level of detail when deciding on whether to keep, buy, or sell other players why do it for Vardy and Mahrez only?

          I dispute the favourable run of fixtures thing they've come up against good defences just every few weeks so far see below and above. We've certainly been able to see some evidence that they can score against good defences already (Arsenal, Tottenham, Southampton).

          As for your quote, how does one differentiate between what is class and what is form? You may well tell me Vardy's never played this well (IDK BTW) but who's to say he wasn't in a bad patch of form and only know playing in an attacking Leicester team with a genius manager he is finally achieving his potential? It's all conjecture.

          You and others keep saying "if their form suffers", I say "it will have to suffer a lot considering their prices are much lower than players who's scoring rate's they have equalled so far (KDB and Agüero) for me to consider them bad options" and "their form may just as easily not suffer".

    3. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Leicester do not have a top four defence, but they are the second highest goal-scorers so far this season.

      I would consider playing for Leicester as a big positive for an attacking player, especially compared with, say, Man United.

      Also, Leicester have no European commitments to distract them this season.

      1. sully29
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Indeed. "So far". I don't expect that to last. Their attacking output will decline along with their overall form. They aren't one of the four best teams in the league and they aren't the second best attack in the league either.

        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Leicester probably won't still be the second highest goal-scoring team at the end of the season, but they would have to regress a very long way to not still be one of the better attacking teams, and I do not think that is likely.

          While a certain amount of regression is to be expected, there is no sign of it yet and their underlying stats are still excellent, so I am not expecting to have to replace Vardy or Mahrez any time soon.

          Of course circumstances can change, but until they do (if they do) I am very happy to keep both in my team.

          1. Dino
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            Best course of action but irrelevant in relation to discussion surrounding this article as the question is are they season keepers?

            1. RedLightning
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              8 years, 4 months ago

              I have only kept a player for the entire season once in six and a bit years of playing FPL (Stoke's penalty-saving expert, Thomas Sorensen), and I won't be keeping any for the entirety of this season either.

              But does the term "season-keeper" really mean someone whom I expect to keep for the remainder of the season?

              In that case, I see no reason at present why Vardy and Mahrez should not remain in my squad till season end.

              As I said, circumstances can and probably will change, so I would not guarantee keeping any of my current players till the end.

              Looking at my current squad, the player with the best chance of retaining his place until at least my second wildcard is probably Gomes.

              1. Dino
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 4 months ago

                I really don't think they will prove to be "season keepers" but I think it is madness to sell until they start to show some of the expected regression.

                Personally my biggest mistake and one I have not made in quite some time was not getting Mahrez after his gw1 haul. When it was shown he was on pens I should have signed him up as he had good fixtures and pens and was a player I was monitoring pre-season. I think it was only fear of the tinkerman and the fact mahrez was not playing no10 as I had hoped and was not cheap enough for a 5th mid spot and not likely to provide enough ppg to be a 4th mid option that stopped me going for him I think.

                As it is now I think anyone buying Vardy or Mahrez are completely off their rocker as giving up that much of a monetary advantage to your rivals makes it almost impossible to catch them. I have gone for Ighalo over Vardy and Mane over Mahrez and hopefully it will allow me to catch up over time.

                1. Jose's Magic Omelette
                  • 10 Years
                  8 years, 4 months ago

                  The point in the article isn't to say they're season keepers it's a tongue in cheek rhetorical question in the headline! If you read the whole article it just illustrates that so far their goalscoring has been pretty much what one would expect of players having the chances and shots on target they are getting.

                  If you read the whole article at no point do I say we should keep Vardy and Mahrez and never consider selling, in fact I say quite the opposite.

                  Of course if their form suffers dramatically (several blanks in a row and a marked decrease in SOT and shots) we should get rid of them. Nobody can know in advance when this is going to happen though, it hasn't happened in previous games against against better defenses such as Arsenal, Tottenham, West Brom and Southampton so why should it happen against Watford, Man United or any of the other upcoming tricky fixtures?

                  Selling them and hoping they start to perform worse with no evidence to suggest they will seems like a pretty big gamble to me.

        2. Woy of the Wovers
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          I don't need Leicester to be the second best attacking team. 5th or 6th should be enough. Add to that the problem that better attacking teams will inevitably involve more squad rotation and the price makes these two players too valuable not to pick.

          When considering selling you'd need to consider other options and there's not enough out there to force either out of my squad. For Mahrez, I'd rather sell Sanchez, KDB or Payet if another mid became available at that price. For Vardy, I'd do without Aguero.

  18. Holy See
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Mmm...bubbles... Excellent JMO, thanks for this.

  19. tm245
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Nice article -- the graphics are super helpful and give the whole conversation a nice basis in data without being too table heavy.

    A few thoughts your great work has prompted:

    -- I posted something earlier this season looking at the weekly returns for the big value midfield bandwagons of the past: Siggy, Yaya, Ramsey, Michu, maybe even Downing. The key I think for this type is determining how many blanks are reasonable to expect before jumping ship, taking both price and productivity into account. All of them hit a barren patch but what made them "season keepers" was their impressive return to form just when a manager could be considered to be at the breaking point. I think your stats are a great help in supporting the notion that getting rid of Mahrez just makes no sense -- he won't get 15 points per week, but midfielders rely less on purple patches and more on assists/chances created, even clean sheet points, so their circumstances are different. The bigger question I think is, Who is Riyad Mahrez as far as an FPL historical equivalent? Is he Hazard circa 2014-15? If so, then holding is the only path I can see right now. Can't for the life of me find the post because it was a Hot Topic and not an article back in September, but will try.

    -- Which leads me to wonder, with the net loss of world class, truly elite attacking talent over the past few years for the PL as a whole, and the clear disappointment of so many of the premium priced attackers that we are left with, do our notions of FPL value need to be restructured? Players like the above aren't just good value, they are budget defying. We often said that Kane last year was performing like a 10-11m striker, but maybe those don't really exist anymore -- it's Aguero and then nothing of value as far as double digit prices go. FPL pricing isn't just based on projected performance, it's also reliant upon the market for those names at those big clubs. It would be great to get some historical data on price, value, and performance to explore this topic, but I just sense that there aren't as many expensive FPL players who are also great points producers anymore.

  20. Diva
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    I think you know what I'm going to say JMO because we had this debate last week. Vardy is converting an unusually high proportion of his shots on target into goals. Sturridge and Costa have come close to that rate in the last two seasons, but they are exceptions rather than the rule. I've blogged about it more fully here: https://fpldiva.wordpress.com/2015/10/31/jamie-vardy-sot-conversion-rate/

    However, that doesn't make Vardy a bad pick. As you note, he's hitting a large number of shots on target and that's great to see.

    1. Eden Hazardous
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      *highest SOT so far

      1. Diva
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Yes, highest so far.

    2. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I disagree with your methods. As I eluded to in an earlier comment if you exclude penalty goals (which I think you should) then in GWKs 1-10 he scored 0.8 goals per game from 1.8 shots per game, a conversion rate of 44% (almost bang on your trend line).

      1. Diva
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        That will be an interesting area for research.

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah, unfortunately NPG stats aren't available on the FFS site.

      2. Woy of the Wovers
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        44% is comfortably above trend line. Should be around 32% - excl. penalties.

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          32% conversion of shots or shots on target? What league, for what season, over how many seasons? Can you link to this? Would be interesting to see.

    3. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      ... while your trend line may have a slightly different slope. It is likely to be less affected, since the majority of strikers do not take penalties.

      1. Jose's Magic Omelette
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        P.S. Excuse the poor grammar, %^£$*^%*%£ big fingers and iOS.

  21. Coffee-Geek
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Some excellent points all round.

    One thought though: I don't believe Leicester will finish in the top 4 this season and I also don't believe Vardy will score 40 goals this season.

    So.....at some point they will start to regress and then we have a different debate.

    1. Swanremainsthesame
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      How many games Leicester continue to win is utterly irrelevant.
      Its if Vardy & Mahrez continue banging them in at a similar rate that matters.
      Otherwise we'd all only pick from the big 4 wouldnt we..

      1. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Not really as if Leicester are not winning then it is likely that Vardy and Mahrez won't be scoring as if they are there is more chance of Leicester winning

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Hmm Dino, although that sounds like something that should be true there hasn't been any correlation between Mahrez or Vardy scoring and assisting and Leicester winning games so far...

          In fact in the 5 games Leicester have lost or drawn the season (Spurs at home, Bournemouth away, Southampton away, Arsenal at home, Stoke away) Mahrez and Vardy have registered 1.6 goals per game and 0.6 assists per game between them. In the 6 games Leicester have won Mahrez and Vardy have registered 1.66 goals per game and 0.5 assists per game between them.

          Although Leicester have averaged slightly more goals scored per game in those they have won (2.3) compared to those they have lost or drawn (1.6) these additional goals scored in have been due to other players scoring more goals in these games. What's more, the biggest difference between the games Leicester have won and those they have lost or drawn is goals conceded per game (1.3 in games they have won compared to 2.2 in those they have lost or drawn).

          So whether Leicester win games or not does seem to be completely irrelevant to this debate at the moment!

          1. Dino
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            8 years, 4 months ago

            Come on 1.6 goals per games is vastly inferior to 2.3 goals per game not slightly less. I get where you are coming from but your dissemination of the numbers seems to be (maybe it is unintentional) skewed by an agenda you are trying to prove. The difference between the goals scored per game in the games they have lost is circa 30% less than those they have won and the difference between the goals conceded per game in those lost or drawn is circa 31% more so it is almost identical. If Leicester score circa 30% less in the fixtures they are going to lose or draw going forward then it is highly likely that Mahrez and Vardy will also score less.

            Although Vardy and Mahrez have scored in these games they have lost or drawn it does not mean that phenomenon will continue. Form is key here and again a limitation of the xG models is they don't take form into account. If Leicester's form starts to falter and Vardy/Mahrez form diminishes then they will likely not be shooting or attempting key passes at the same rates in future difficult games. I would argue that the games they have lost or drawn were sufficiently spread out that the players in question were able to get a form boosting performance pretty soon after the difficult fixture so as to extend their form for a longer period.

            This is a pretty long winded response as there are almost too many variables at play when discussing form and trying to use stats from players in form playing for a team in form who have had a great run of fixtures to justify future returns is meaningless imo.

            Thanks for the article though, I do love a good stats backed discussion

            1. Jose's Magic Omelette
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 4 months ago

              Au contraire it is you who has fudged the maths and made up false percentages to suit your opinion!

              1. "30% less than those they have won... 31% more so almost identical"

              Working With Percentages 101.

              0.7/2.3 = 30% percentage decrease in goals scored in games lost or drawn

              Vs.

              0.9/2.2 = 40% percentage decrease in goals conceded in games won

              or...

              0.7/1.6 = 44% percentage increase in goals scored in games won

              Vs.

              0.9/1.3 = 69% percentage increase in goals conceded in games lost or drawn

              or (the best way to describe it)... ( (V1 - V2) / ((V1 + V2)/2) ) * 100

              51% percentage difference between goals conceded in the games won vs. lost or drawn.

              Vs.

              36% percentage difference between goals scored in the games won vs. lost or drawn.

              Whichever way you look at it the difference in goals conceded is considerably greater than goals scored, and no (before you try) comparing the 44% percentage increase from 1.6 to 2.3 with 40% percentage decrease from 2.2 to 1.3 and saying the percentages are similar is nonsensical because 40% of 2.2, goals isn't similar to 44% of 1.6 goals, it's 29% more goals.

              Even if goals scored were the biggest difference in the games lost and drawn it would be irrelevant anyway as the statistics for Mahrez and Vardy are almost identical in games won Vs. lose or draw.

              2. "If Leicester score circa 30% less in the fixtures they are going to lose or draw going forward then it is highly likely that Mahrez and Vardy will also score less."

              Why? They haven't so far in the "trickier games" this season? In fact as I pointed out earlier they've scored exactly the same? What evidence do you have to back this up?

              3. "Although Vardy and Mahrez have scored in these games they have lost or drawn it does not mean that phenomenon will continue... If Leicester's form starts to falter and Vardy/Mahrez form diminishes then they will likely not be shooting or attempting key passes at the same rates in future"

              Precisely I didn't say it would. I said, "it will be interesting to see what happens against Watford next week, if Mahrez and Vardy can boast similar underlying statistics again then it would seem that they’re fixture-proof". I suggest we should monitor their underlying statistics to see if they carry on taking more shots than other "top four" teams and, while they continue to, keep them in our teams.

              4. "Trying to use stats from players in form playing for a team in form who have had a great run of fixtures to justify future returns is meaningless"

              Firstly, I'm not I'm trying to forecast future returns if you read the article, I'm explaining the reasons that Mahrez and Vardy have scored so many points and showing it is no fluke, rather Leicester City's extremely attacking philosophy that gives them more chances to score a game than many other players in "better teams". Other people are trying to forecast future returns with irrational backwards logic like "Leicester aren't a top four side, so Vardy and Mahrez have to start scoring less".

              Secondly, Spurs at home (a team with one of the lowest xG against so far this season), Southampton away (another team with a tight defence and low xG against), Arsenal at home (similarly tricky to score against unless you're BM), Stoke away and West Brom away are hardly what one could call "easy fixtures".

              5. The point I'm making is that before the West Brom game people were saying "West Brom and Watford are tricky fixtures, I'm selling Vardy or Mahrez and benching the other (despite the fact that a gimme against Newcastle is coming up)". I am arguing that a team with one of the most attacking philosophies in the league will still score plenty of goals in difficult fixtures - this is what has happened so far this season in the trickier fixtures.

              6. Of course it may be the case that Mahrez and Vardy score less goals in these upcoming games, nobody can know that for sure no matter what has happened in the past. However, as I wrote, at their price point even if they have a 50% drop off they'll still be worth having.

              7. You're entitled to your opinion but it's not very convincing if you don't provide any evidence to support it, even less so when you state two differences are identical percentages.

              1. Dino
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 4 months ago

                I'll give you a plus one for the post but since I am on the phone I'll have to nip in at another time to reply properly as it is difficult to fully digest the numbers you have posted when you can only see a few lines at a time.

                Ps thanks for taking the time to reply, much appreciated

                1. Jose's Magic Omelette
                  • 10 Years
                  8 years, 4 months ago

                  Haha no problem probably could have done a shorter post but figured I may as well respond to each point. Until next time ;).

  22. Robben Mee Blind
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Great article JMO. Many thanks

  23. JoeJitzu +42
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Great analysis. Can you remind me again what the 'intensity' or size of the bubble represents again (not the colour)!
    Thanks

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Size = Ownership
      Colour = PPG

  24. Wimmer winner chicken dinne…
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Fantastic article, I regret going against the bubbles when I brought in Martial...I won't be doing that again

  25. roscola
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Super article. Really top drawer. My only beef with any of it is that you seem to be using WBA as the archetypal tough fixture and generalising from there to Chelsea, City and the rest. Brom's defence isn't actually all that, and several teams have shown that if you attack with enough intensity they fall apart. Their defensive stats (shots conceded etc) are actually quite middling.

    I'd be very surprised if Leicester managed to keep scoring at the same rate against what if consider to be properly tough defences.

    I guess we can only wait and see but even having said that, I'm very nervous of dropping them too early. I make that mistake with just about every season's cheap bandwagon (Michu, Ba etc).

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah I agree with you on West Brom, really good point.

      However they've already played and scored against Arsenal, Tottenham and Southampton all of whom have been very good defensively this season (in fact the only team to better them over the season has been Man City).

      Apart from United and City are any of the other teams really much better defensively than teams Leicester have scored against already?

      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        Yep, good point. I might be tempted to add Liverpool to those but it's probably too early to say that.

        If I get a bit of time tomorrow, I might look at the shot numbers against the tough fixtures versus the easier ones. But you're probably right that there won't be that much difference.

        1. Jose's Magic Omelette
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 4 months ago

          Oh yeah, I actually haven't looked at that. Would be interested to know.

  26. Jose's Magic Omelette
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Just a quick thank-you to all those who have left comments or posted!

    I'm amazed at how this has split opinion and many of the community seem convinced Mahrez and Vardy are about to stop scoring!

    I think it's definitely a possibility of course and something we should look out for (I'm not advocating keeping them all season irrespective of whether they get injured or forget where the goal is) right now I just haven't been convinced by anyone there's any hard evidence to suggest owners should be worried.

    I will be monitoring them closely, maybe after the Watford game this weekend we will have a better idea of how they cope with determined defences.

    1. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I might be late but great article, doesn't change my opinion in any way though 🙂

      1. Jose's Magic Omelette
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 4 months ago

        😉

  27. Gloria Kanchelskis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 4 months ago

    Only just caught up on this but I think it's a great article and I agree there is no statistical reason to sell either of them yet.

    On a totally different note which software did you use to create the graphicaL

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 4 months ago

      I didn't, T3T did. Anyone got a link to his profile?