What The Bookies Say – Gameweek 13

Welcome to my latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results. The international break is over (hoorah!) so let’s delve straight into Gameweek 13.

Captaincy Options

The names on the left-hand side are the leaders in FFScout’s captaincy poll (at time of writing), while on the right are the bookies’ fractions bets to score. On the far right are the decimal odds.

1. Romelu Lukaku               1. Harry Kane (19/20) 1.95
2. Jamie Vardy                    2. Jamie Vardy (19/20) 1.95
3. Harry Kane                     3. Sergio Aguero (EVS) 2.00
4. Alexis Sanchez               4. Romelu Lukaku (11/10) 2.10
5. Sergio Aguero                 5. Alexis Sanchez (6/5) 2.20
6. Mesut Ozil                      6. Eden Hazard (6/4) 2.50
7. Eden Hazard                   7. Riyad Mahrez (7/4) 2.75
8. Odion Ighalo                    8. Kevin De Bruyne (19/10) 2.90
9. Riyad Mahrez                  9. Mesut Ozil (21/10) 3.10
10. Kevin De Bruyne             10. Odion Ighalo (5/2) 3.50

Captaincy Analysis:

1. Jamie Vardy (new) – The Leicester striker is in the form of his life, scoring in nine consecutive Gameweeks. Assuming he is passed fit, I can’t see a better candidate for the armband this week when they face a struggling Newcastle side. With his team mate Riyad Mahrez seemingly willing to give up penalty duties so his colleague can reach his target, this only adds to his prospect of picking up points in this fixture.
2. Harry Kane (WHM) – Harry Kane is another striker that has hit form recently and Spurs host a West Ham side who will be without their talisman Dimitri Payet, who will not return to action due to injury until the new year. Taking into account that Tottenham have not lost since the opening day of the season, I can see this game only going in one direction. Another strong captaincy option this weekend.
3. Punt: Sergio Aguero (LIV) – At time of writing, Fantasy managers were still waiting on an update from Man City boss Manuel Pellegrini about the chances of minutes for Aguero this weekend. If it is likely he will feature, even from the bench, the Argentine has the ability to wreak havoc upon any defence in the league. With 10% ownership, there is certainly a high risk, high reward strategy for those willing to take a gamble this weekend.

Clean Sheets

(in order, decimals on the right):

Southampton (19/20) 1.95

Crystal Palace (21/20) 2.05

Chelsea (11/10) 2.10

Arsenal (23/20) 2.15

Everton (23/20) 2.15

Man Utd (23/20) 2.15

Tottenham (13/10) 2.30

Man City (11/8) 2.37

Swansea (6/4) 2.50

Leicester (11/4) 3.75

Watford (14/5) 3.80

Newcastle (3/1) 4.00

Bournemouth (10/3) 4.33

Stoke (4/1) 5.00

Aston Villa (9/2) 5.50

Liverpool (9/2) 5.50

Sunderland (9/2) 5.50

West Ham (5/1) 6.00

Norwich (11/2) 6.50

West Brom (11/2) 6.50

The Matches

Watford (4/1) vs Man Utd (4/5)

Only a goalkeeping mistake in Gameweek 12 meant that Watford lost for the first time in three weeks, but with Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo continuing to form a fruitful partnership, Watford are almost completely reliant on the pair to keep scoring, which is a concern if the goals start to dry up. United have been defensively sound this season but their attacking options rely on the ability to maintain a high shots-to-goals ratio, which again, is another concern. Juan Mata (8.7) seems a decent option in midfield, given he is nailed on and has penalties in his locker – a good replacement for Payet. Prediction: 1-2

Southampton (4/7) vs Stoke (5/1)

Both teams kept clean sheets last week and I think the home team have the best shout for a shut-out this week, this is reflected by the odds (19/20), especially with the news that Saints’ injury doubt, centre-back Virgil van Dijk is more likely than not to line up on the weekend. I mentioned last week that Southampton’s Graziano Pelle, Dusan Tadic and Sadio Mane have been superb so far and I expect that to continue this week. A special mention to Saints full-back Ryan Bertrand (5.3); whilst many have opted for Van Dijk, Bertrand has 19 points in his last two weeks and offers a greater assist potential. Prediction: 2-0

West Brom (11/2) vs Arsenal (1/2)

West Brom’s defence is a real puzzle for me; they either keep a clean sheet or concede three goals – a nightmare for Fantasy managers. Arsenal looked much more composed in the second half against Tottenham. Every man and his dog apart from Arsene Wenger knows the team needs a midfield enforcer but yet they rely on Manuel Flamini and Mikel Arteta. Mesut Ozil (8.9) is probably the in-form midfielder in the league right now, a consistency has developed and expect him to pull the strings and finally break down a resolute Baggies defence. Prediction: 1-2

Newcastle (9/5) vs Leicester (7/5)

Newcastle have lifted themselves out of the relgation places but come up against a Leicester side, who are scoring goals consistently. The likes of Mahrez and Vardy will fancy their chances against a porous Newcastle defence.  I’m also going to single out Ayoze Perez (5.1). The Newcastle forward scored in Gameweek 12 and could be an alternative to Ighalo as your an Aguero-enabler. I’m expecting another high-scoring game. Prediction: 1-3

Swansea (3/4) vs Bournemouth (15/4)

I feel for Bournemouth; injuries have completely ravaged their season and the Dorset side now sit two points above the relegation zone. I can’t see a way out for them right now, not even against struggling Swansea, who lost to Norwich last Gameweek with an obvious lack of creativity. Matt Ritchie (5.6) is the key man for Bournemouth and needs to be at the heart of everything they do. I think ultimately these teams will cancel each other out. Prediction: 1-1

Everton (1/2) vs Aston Villa (6/1)

Everton’s attacking options have clicked in recent weeks; the likes of Gerard Deulofeu and Arouna Kone are in great form. Romelu Lukaku, as predicted, continued his fine form (seven goals in seven appearances) against West Ham last time out and he has been transferred in by Fantasy managers in their thousands. He now sits at 8.6 (at the time of writing) and looks to be back at his best. Aston Villa claimed a draw against Man City in Gamweek 12; they were organised and well drilled, and I was very impressed with the change in the few days Remi Garde has been in charge. A lot of people will expect an easy home win but I think the opposite; Villa will be hard to break down. Prediction: 1-1

Chelsea (4/9) vs Norwich (13/2)

Who would have predicted that at this stage of the season, Norwich would sit above Chelsea in the Premier League table? Chelsea have lost three on the bounce and failed to score against Stoke in Gameweek 12. Meanwhile, Norwich were unfortunate to lose against Man City in the same Gameweek and still show some promising signs for the season ahead. Chelsea could be in the relegation places by the end of the weekend if they slip up again. I think the international break has come at a good time for Chelsea and they will be expected to win this game at home but Norwich will have a good go at the Champions and I’m expecting goals. Prediction: 3-2

Man City (7/10) vs Liverpool (19/5)

The possible returns of long-term injury victims David Silva and Sergio Aguero cannot come at a better time for Man City as they stumbled across the line against Norwich and could not break down Aston Villa in recent Gameweeks. They come up against a Liverpool side who have shown improvement under Klopp but I think the injury to Mamadou Sakho will set them back defensively, especially with Dejan Lovren likely to deputise. Philippe Coutinho (8.2) has three goals in his last two games and will be crucial not only due to his goals and creativity but the ability to bring Christian Benteke into the game. Prediction: 2-1

Tottenham (8/15) vs West Ham (5/1)

Another London derby for Tottenham sees them host a West Ham side who will be without key man Dimitri Payet. As stated above, Tottenham have not lost since the opening day of the season and I expect this to continue. West Ham look one-dimensional and rigid with Andy Carroll up front and it doesn’t seem to be working. Manuel Lanzini (5.3) should be pushed further forward and he offers up an interesting replacement for Payet, or for your fifth midfielder. Prediction: 2-1

Crystal Palace (8/15) vs Sunderland (5/1)

Monday night football comes to Crystal Palace, who were excellent against Liverpool, and look to be a team in form. The same cannot be said for Sunderland, who apart from their recent victory against Newcastle, have not shown enough improvement for my liking and I’m wondering how much influence new boss Sam Allardyce can have on this team. Palace have some bright attacking options with Yannick Bolasie seeminly gaining form. Scott Dann (5.1) is more expensive than the other Palace defensive options but he scored last time out and is nailed on. Prediction: 2-0

Tip: Lukaku anytime + Harry Kane anytime + Southampton clean sheet @ 8.2/1