Bandwagons Analysed – Gameweek 13

After picking up an ankle injury against Everton last gameweek, Dimitri Payet looks set to be out until the end of February. Consequently, this has left many Fantasy managers scrambling to find a replacement. Whilst there seems to be one preferred candidate amongst Arsenal’s ranks, some are looking at the Payet injury as an opportunity to free up some funds for Sergio Aguero’s imminent arrival. This has set in motion a number of notable bandwagons.

Mesut Ozil (8.9)

There is no surprise that Ozil is the first name on this list. He is the player who everyone wanted, yet couldn’t fit in. Now, with Payet freeing up a space in our already congested midfields, it seems there is room at the inn for the German after all.

After picking up attacking returns in each of his last six league games, Ozil immediately bounced onto the radar as a solid option. He has proven previously that he can be a good Fantasy asset, and it seems that the time may have come to invest in his services once again. With one goal and a very impressive 11 assists putting Ozil third overall among the midfielders for Fantasy Premier League points scored, he is the popular replacement.

When it comes to goal scoring, Ozil has never been prolific. Nevertheless, Arsene Wenger has called for him to score 10 goals this season; something which he has failed to do in his prior two campaigns in the Premier League. If Ozil were to score 10 goals this season, he would no doubt finish on a very healthy sum of points, but his ability to do so is in doubt.

His poor goalscoring capabilities are evident through several statistics. He had managed only 15 goal attempts this season placing him joint 39th amongst the midfielders. However, all of these came from inside the box, which is promising. This means he isn’t just taking wild pot shots from 30 yards out: these are actual chances. Of these, six were on target. This means that two out of every five of his shots have been on target, an impressive ratio for someone who isn’t a natural shooter or goal scorer. This ratio betters that of teammate Alexis Sanchez. Another promising stat is his touches in the box, 44, for which he is only five behind Leicester’s in-form Riyad Mahrez.

It is creating chances where Ozil really shines though. He has created a total of 54, more than any other midfielder, including Payet (46). Furthermore, Ozil creates a chance every 17.9 minutes, better than any other player.

Fixtures: wba (a), nor (a), SUN (H), avl (a), MCI (H), sou (a), BOU (H), NEW (H)

Verdict: It’s no wonder Ozil is the most popular replacement. Arsenal have always been strong in attack and have shown good form of late. Ozil has been heavily involved in their goals and can be relied upon to tick over consistently with decent points. Their fixtures are very good, with Norwich, Sunderland, Villa, Bournemouth and Newcastle in their next eight. His price, 8.9, is fairly low. The issue lies with Aguero’s return. He seems a no-brainer if you can still afford Aguero easily after getting him in, but if not, then other options should be considered.

Sergio Aguero (13.0)

The Argentine has been pictured in training with the rest of the squad, and has himself stated that he would like to feature in the game against Liverpool this weekend. There was further hope for his new owners when Manuel Pellegrini today declared Aguero fit to start.

As with previous seasons, there is panic when Aguero returns from injury. Other players have emerged as strong picks, making facilitating him a tough feat.

We all know what he is capable of; his five goals against Newcastle reminded us of his extraordinary explosiveness. His stats are always strong and Manchester City are excellent going forward. With David Silva also nearing first team action, although likely to miss out this weekend, Aguero’s long-term prospects look strong. In the last three seasons, after returning from injury seven times, Aguero scored in his first game back twice. It is worth noting that one of these was after a minor injury in which he missed only one game. Last season, after he was out for five, he failed to score for four games (three of which he started), before he picked up a brace against Stoke.

This has caused some, myself included, to ponder over whether Aguero is really necessary right now. He might not get back to his goalscoring ways immediately and will likely have one or two starts from the bench before he makes the first team.

Fixtures: LIV (H), SOU (H), sto (a), SWA (H), ars (a), SUN (H), lei (a), wat (a)

Verdict: It seems people are in two camps: those opting to pick up Aguero early, and those who are avoiding him (for now!). His fixtures aren’t the best and with forwards such as Romelu Lukaku, Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy performing at much lower prices, it really is hard to fit the Manchester City striker in. Nevertheless, I’ll certainly be drafting him in before the Sunderland game over the Christmas period, as long as he is fit.

Gerard Deulofeu (6.2)

With only 1.4% ownership, Deulofeu is well and truly a differential. With Payet out for an extended period and his owners searching for a replacement, Deulofeu boasts a low price tag (6.2 at the time of writing), enabling funds to be freed for the likes of Aguero.

Deulofeu has registered attacking returns in each of his last three games, and has also managed to grab attacking returns in every game he has played 60+ minutes in this season. Despite his impressive point scores over the last two weeks, his stats have been poor. He has managed only two goal attempts over his last three games, putting him 59th among the midfielders. Both of these came from inside the box, and were on target. His touches in the penalty box (14) are more encouraging, putting him fifth amongst midfielders. His chances created (5) only place him 14th.

Whilst Deulofeu’s game time may be a doubt with Kevin Mirallas and Tom Cleverley knocking on the door, it does seem like it is his position to lose. Last season, he managed three goals and four assists in 900 minutes, showing he is capable of scoring well if he gets game time. If he is handed more time this season, he could well be an excellent pick.

Fixtures: AVL (H), bou (a), CPL (H), nor (a), LEI (H), new (a), STO (H), TOT (H)

Verdict: Whilst Deulofeu’s low ownership and kind price are enticing, his stats put me off. It seems as though he is over performing at the moment and may not continue scoring this well. However, with a strong run of fixtures this form may well continue. If it does, he will be a very good value option indeed.