The Men In Black – Gameweek 23

Last week, I contemplated bringing Charlie Daniels in. Bournemouth were at home to Norwich and Robert Madley was refereeing. Too good to be true surely? As always, gut and head battled it out and in the end head won. I had no injury concerns to address and my team looked fine as it was for the coming Gameweek in all areas. I thought to myself ‘If it’s not broke don’t fix it’.

So deciding to save the free transfer instead of ditching Pape Souaré for Daniels, the deadline passed. I felt fairly content, assuring myself this referee statistics stuff was all blown out of proportion in order to put my mind at ease and be comfortable in my decision to bank the free transfer.

Then kick-off came, Daniels scored a penalty in addition to an assist, a clean sheet and three bonus points for an 18-point haul. Needless to say I was pretty sickened at not going ahead with the move as planned, even advising many others on Daniels during the week. I concluded that perhaps the referee in charge could have an impact on our Fantasy Football choices and as a result decided to look more into this.

Watching the Men in Black

Referee appointments are updated on the official Premier League website at the following link (use the slider to check the next Gameweek). They are usually announced a few days after the current Gameweek has started, but can take longer depending on how many midweek games there are. Just a note to remind people that on the tables below, the likes of Graham Scott, Simon Hooper and Keith Stroud (who have only refereed a few games) will alter the tables a lot by the small sample size used. For this reason I have compiled a document of this season’s Premier League fixtures by referees in charge, including any penalties awarded in each match. This will give a further representation of their campaign so far.

Above we can see what referees rank the highest for yellow and red cards given on average. However, it is not something we should really be losing sleep over since yellow cards are given by all referees for all kinds of fouls. It may be useful though for considering a short-term punt on a player that is a card magnet or walking the suspension tightrope. Basically it can be used as a leniency guide. In the Yellow Cards (YC) table, the higher the number, the stricter the referee is, and for Red Cards, the lower the number, the stricter the referee is since we judge this table by games per red card. From this season, we can see that Mike Dean and Stuart Attwell aren’t afraid to show the red card. Andre Marriner, Anthony Taylor and Neil Swarbrick love to show the yellow card with Mike Oliver and (once again) Mike Dean following closely behind, giving them all a reputation as ‘strict referees’.

The above table shows how frequently penalties are awarded by referees. Robert Madley and Roger East top the table, with Mike Dean following closely behind. However, it’s also important to factor in what teams leave the referees little or no choice in awarding penalties. Below we can see what teams have won the most penalties this season in addition to those that have conceded the most. This will give us a better idea of things to come over the long term perhaps. Of course you can look into it as deep as you want, and check out fouls committed by teams in the Members Area, but I don’t want to go off track. For more information we may consult the “Set Piece Takers” tab on the homepage of Fantasy Football Scout.

Gameweek 23’s Referees

Let’s try to apply all of these numbers to the upcoming Gameweek’s fixtures and see what we can expect according to the statistics. I will take the more notable fixtures for now.

Sunderland v Bournemouth (Roger East)

Sunderland have conceded the highest number of penalties this season and will be officiated by a referee that ranks second highest for penalties awarded. Charlie Daniels owners could be rewarded again and the chances of a penalty in this match are quite high.

Leicester v Stoke (Mike Dean)

Recently, Leicester have had misfortune with their penalty-taking and question marks surround whether Vardy or Ulloa will take the next one. Mike Dean ranks third for games per penalty awarded, so Leicester could capitalise should Stoke have a bad day at the back. Dean is also very quick to show cards, both yellow and red, so this could be worth keeping in mind for those wishing to play defenders in this game. It is also worth remembering that Butland could come away with a nice score, depending how the game unfolds.

West Brom v Aston Villa (Robert Madley)

Lately, Robert Madley has earned himself a reputation as the most likely referee to award a penalty (on average every 1.5 games). Madley is not afraid to show the red card either, but displays a fairly average yellow card rate compared to his fellow officials. Yet this is a derby game and players might lose the run of themselves, so keep this in mind when playing defenders in this fixture. West Brom rank quite highly for penalties conceded (5) so Pulis’ men will have to be on their best behaviour with Madley watching closely.

Watford v Newcastle (Andre Marriner)

This game is a tricky one to try and predict but interesting nonetheless. Watford have been awarded as many penalties as they have conceded them (4). Andre Marriner has a reputation of loving his cards; in particular this season his average yellow and red cards shown has increased significantly. He also gives penalties quite often, though not as often as Madley, East or Dean. So the chances of a penalty or a card are quite high, but for what team is very hard to say. In terms of bookings, Nyom (6), Deeney (5) and Capoue (4) of Watford are the likely victims of Marriner’s wrath along with Colback (9), Shelvey (5) and Janmaat (4) of Newcastle. Mitrovic is known for losing his temper so this is worth keeping in mind also.