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Why Was The 2015/16 Fantasy Football Season So Different?

For many Fantasy managers 2015/16 was a strange season, full of inconsistencies and upsets on a weekly basis. The argument of “form versus fixtures” raised its head throughout the year but at times the debate seemed futile. Some players that were in great form went missing for a run of games, only to return to form despite poor underlying statistics or fixtures. For this reason I think it is good to look at the various components that made this season so different to previous ones, and try to understand the context in which it unfolded.

Chips

This season saw the Fantasy Premier League introduce ‘Chips’. Fantasy managers could opt for All Out Attack, Bench Boost and Triple Captain Chips for one Gameweek each during the season.

At first their inclusion was met with mixed opinion and even now at the end of the season not much has changed. Personally, I was excited to see what I thought would be a more challenging element of the game, but by the end of May I felt the Chips were a bit of a distraction and a nuisance.

They ended up dictating how Fantasy managers approached double Gameweeks and their use of the second Wildcard. This, in my opinion, took some of the fun out of the game. I think Chips that are more specific to our teams would be a better addition by making managers take a risk, or at least present us with more choice as to when to use them rather than uniformly dispatching them around double Gameweeks.

Under-Performances

Many well-known managers, players and clubs fell short of expectation both in reality and in Fantasy terms. While this happens most years, the extent to which it happened this year was more noticeable (as we will look at further on).

Chelsea, last season’s champions, fell from grace early on as they struggled to climb from the relegation zone even up until Christmas. As a result, boss Jose Mourinho was sacked and Guus Hiddink took over as Chelsea went on to finish 10th.

Many believed Everton would have a superb season given their lack of European football, and we couldn’t have been farther from the truth. Roberto Martinez’ side had a horrible season, with easily one of the worst defences and the most inconsistent attacking options in Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku. The Toffees manager found himself leaving the club before their final home game victory that left them in 11th place.

Elsewhere in Merseyside, Jurgen Klopp came in for the sacked Brendan Rodgers and had a big task at hand. An eighth place finish was still disappointing, but he did add two finals to the club’s history, despite falling short of expectations in both.

Clubs that trailed off in the New Year included Arsenal and Crystal Palace. Arsenal seem to have a habit of this, with plenty of fans airing their frustration at manager Arsene Wenger. Alan Pardew’s Crystal Palace were sitting in sixth place after Christmas, and ended up 15th by May. Leicester and Claudio Ranieri wrote history as they made their league-winning fairytale a reality when they pipped Spurs in the title-race. Southampton and West Ham surprised a lot of people with a sixth and seventh place finish respectively.

Home Win Percentage

Linked to under performance is the home-win percentage. The two tables below show the results breakdown in the 2014/15 season and the current season. As we can see, the 2015/16 season is quite chaotic (inconsistent) with its harsh spiking on “home”, “draw” and “away” games whereas the 2014/15 graph is a little softer (consistent).

“Draws” were a lot more common this season in comparison to last year, while the average home games won per Gameweek is a lot lower compared to last season. In order for things to go back to ‘normal’, average home win percentage will need to improve.

2014/15

BOW201415

2015/16

BOW1516

Players and Consistency

Predicting what players to get was very hard early on, with many cautious about Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy in case they turned out to be just another flash in the pan.

By the time many of us realised they were the real deal, Leicester were aiming for the title and their playing style began to change severely to a defensive one. Likewise for other cheap players that emerged like Christian Fuchs, Dele Alli, Jermain Defoe and Odion Ighalo.

I think many Fantasy managers (myself included) were stubborn in our decision to bring in these value players too late, and continued blindly with premium players such as Eden Hazard, Alexis Sanchez and Sergio Aguero through their dry spells in hope that they would improve.

There was a blatant inconsistency in a lot of players throughout the campaign. This can be seen by the table below, which compares the premium players’ points return of this season against last season. We can see that many of the top players dropped off massively with only a handful improving or getting close to last year’s returns.

BOWplayers

Of the newly added mid-premium players it turned out Dimitri Payet was the standout pick at a starting price of 7.5. While the likes of Roberto Firmino and Kevin De Bruyne did deliver at times, overall they remained too inconsistent throughout the season to be considered as valuable premium options.

Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)

In recent years, a lot of competitive Fantasy managers have used this concept to better their teams and maximise the usefulness of their budget. For example, a 13.0 Aguero might score 10 points and a 5.0 Ighalo could score five points. Even though Aguero has scored five more points, we need to consider how much the 8.0 cash in price difference could have made an impact elsewhere, i.e. in defence or midfield.

In previous seasons, VORP was a very useful tool for squad management, but this year it was completely nullified for large parts of the season. With the cheap players such as Mahrez, Alli, Deeney and Ighalo in so many teams, the abundance of cash in Fantasy managers’ bank accounts made the concept of VORP useless. The lack of successful premium options for much of the season meant a Fantasy manager could literally have all of the in-form players without worrying about not being able to afford them: an element of the game that essentially separates the men from the boys in my opinion. Next season I expect (hope) that this will change.

*Thanks to Konig Luther and Berbinho for linking me up to the various stat pages I was looking for.

Bøwstring The Carp Active since 2011 on FFS. Occasional poster and community article writer. Twitter: @MattKearney92 Follow them on Twitter

15 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thanks so much for this. Really nails down exactly why this season was so different. while the chips were a key change, I think most savvy managers worked out how to use them pretty swiftly. Kavali's recent article on the FPL veterans, which shows this was their best season yet, shows that experienced fantasy managers adapt very quickly to rule changes.

    The key changes that really tripped people up though was that incredible value in good players, the poor value in premium picks and as you point out the poor home form and unpredictability of results.

    Next season I anticipate more Fantasy managers who played this year to understand the chips better and use them around double Gameweeks. That will make it trickier.

    But what hopefully will make it easier will be a new 'normal' where premium players in top teams perform well at home - exactly when we want them to.

    1. _Freddo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      People that were too stubborn to adapt will call the season strange, those that were flexible just adapted and got on with it.

      Plenty of people embraced the changes and had good ranks, those that were stuck in their ways will hide behind the other stubborn people and group think that the game was broken.

      Everyone had 15 players to pick and the same football matches to watch.

  2. Ruth_NZ
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Two comments...

    "[The chips] ended up dictating how Fantasy managers approached double Gameweeks and their use of the second wildcard."

    Yes, they did, but that was the managers' fault. Coupling 2nd wildcard with BB was a clear strategic error that most of us sleepwalked into.

    "In previous seasons, VORP was a very useful tool for squad management, but this year it was completely nullified for large parts of the season."

    This is absolutely true. Personally I went as far as to attempt to quantify the VORP value of 0.5 budget. I might as well not have bothered for all the use that was last season. It will probably be more useful next season though. 🙂

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Just to clarify he's not talking about the specific GWK 33 wildcard and Gameweek 34 bench boost. He's talking about all the combinations that could have been used. The key is though that wildcards and chips were used around those doubles. That could have been like some wildcarding in GWK 32, some not using bench boost at all for GWK 34 and using triple captaincy instead.

      While many used the GWK 33 WC, GWK 34 BB, that was not the only chip/ double combination used.

      Even you in your forthcoming community article on the team you took over used your wildcard around the double gameweek.

      To varying degrees those that did combine dgwks and chips were all winners.

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        In Sam's team the wildcard was played in the DGW, not before it. 🙂

        I'm not criticising BTC's article at all. I'm criticising the strategic error (which I also made myself).

        2nd wildcard is the most important tool we have. Bending it out of shape to service another chip of much lesser value is a strategic mistake. In my own case I only realised that when it was too late and I had left myself no other route.

        1. J0E
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Yes as said you played it around the DGW in that case actually on the DGW itself. Bowstring's point is more that they were used around (and that includes actually in a dgwk) the dgwks, which meant they were all used in that short window around (or on) two gameweeks. That broad policy was a success - but he'd like to see chips where the dgwk wasn't such a factor. I'm not sure what they would be as double fixtures usually means they are the best time to use any extra points boost facility.

          The whole issue around the GWK 33 WC then GWK 34 BB tactic is a sound one, but a tangent.

          Also those that used their second wildcard with a TC the next week in mind really benefited. Not just from a stellar GWK 34 score, but also not hacking their team apart around GWK 33 and GWK 35. Andy, who won our moderators league did this and had a great season run in (thanks also to Smalling's own goal 😉 ).

          1. Ruth_NZ
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Hmmm... well, I'm not convinced. 🙂

            I'll send you an article about why I think it's an error. Was going to put it on Diva's blog but seeing as it has come up I might as well offer it to FFS.

            1. J0E
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Prepare yourself for lots of interesting replies from those who wildcarded in GWK 33, triple captained Aguero/ Sanchez GWK 34 and still got a good score in GWK 35 and 33. 😉

              I'm not sure an article on GWK 33 WC, GWK 34 BB is necessary - most know why what was an error in hindsight.

              1. Ruth_NZ
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                Well, I have sent the article. It's about coupling 2nd wildcard with BB and why it is an error in principle. You are welcome to use it or not of course. 🙂

                All the discussion about "if you used TC here, if you wildcarded in 36 not 33" and so on is a red herring as far as I am concerned. I really don't care who did well and who didn't because that's just happenstance. A strategic error is a strategic error and arguing about which mitigation route worked best misses that fundamental point.

                Anyway, you'll see why I think so when you read the article.

                1. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 10 months ago

                  I know what you're saying Ruth. I did very well with my WC33 BB34, and whilst my TC37 was a disaster, it could have turned out ok. The point is that whilst I was somewhat lucky with my BB, and unlucky with my TC, a WC34 would have reduced the amount of luck involved.

                2. buffrey
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 9 months ago

                  You can't blanket "strategic error" across the board. Just because it may have been an error for you because you chose the wrong players doesn't mean it was an error as a whole. I wc32 bb34. And was happy with that combo and it helped a great deal. Yes I lost Kane/Alli but gained Sanchez, etc. Strategically it was NOT an error for me and I'm happy with it.

                  I'm less happy with using the TC on lukaku in gw33 though

  3. CatMac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which do you prefer/think will score more?

    A) Muller, Giroud, Alli
    B) Kane, Griezmann, Mertens

    My other striker is Lewandowski and the rest of MF is Ozil, Alaba, Fabregas, Rafa Silva.

    1. CatMac
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Whoops looks like I posted on the wrong article.

  4. Wimmer winner chicken dinne…
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Interesting article, it'll be interesting to see this analysis continued at the end of next season, will the value players kick on next year? For example Kane has shown he can follow up points with his increased price tag. Mahrez and Vardy may be hamstrung with the new defensive tactics over their nothing to lose all out attack that they kicked their campaign off with

  5. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    I think another factor is that there were very few injuries to key players to interupt their run of form. Aguero, Payet..... thats about it from memory (Sanchez doesn't count as he was only in form at the end of the season).

    With so few injuries there was no need to transfer players in and out so the same template could keep on rolling for weeks on end without any thought required.