Sleeper – Cesc Fabregas

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE 2ND WILDCARD/BB COMBO

I have come to the conclusion that combining 2nd wildcard with a DGW BB is a strategic mistake and I intend to use mine early (probably GW1 or GW3, before wildcarding). Seeing that I keep getting asked about this I'll just put my reasoning in one place and be done with it. Sorry for the long post but that's the way it goes.

So, here's the reasoning...

1. Value of the BB

First we have to establish a base value for the BB. In my view managers are over-optimistic about its worth.

Taking a 3-4-3 structure as standard, your bench in any week consists of your 2 weakest defenders, your weakest midfielder and your weaker GK. Typically they are cheap players. So, assuming you choose a week where all (or most) have decent prospects what can you expect from them? I'd say 12 points would be a realistic par score (given that you'd pick your time and wouldn't play BB when you had injured or dropped players there).

Incidentally, if you think 12 points is over-optimistic then it makes my argument even better. 🙂

2. Value of the BB in a DGW (standard structure)

By implication, therefore, what playing BB in a DGW might achieve for you is an extra projected 12 points if all are DGW players and all actually play twice. That's assuming you stick to your standard structure.

3. Value of the BB in a DGW (non-standard structure A)

This is where things become more difficult to define. For example, you might choose to keep some SGW players during the DGW. They may be higher value players. In which case your DGW bench isn't cheap players any more. But it is still your weakest players that week. An example from last season was Arsenal players for the GW36 wildcard GW37 BB combo. Most managers would have wanted to keep, say, Bellerin, Koscielny and Sanchez (or other combination) in view of the games against Norwich (GW36) and Villa (GW38). But what did that mean? It meant Bellerin, Koscielny and Sanchez away at City were 75% of their BB in GW37.

Could they expect to beat 18 points from those 3 in that one game? If not then the BB projected value would be worse than in 2 above. (In actual fact Sanchez scored in a 2-2 draw and the 3 players amassed 9 points between them, so nothing better than you'd hope for in a SGW BB.

4. Value of the BB in a DGW (non-standard structure B)

Another alternative is to shed high-value players (Aguero, Kane, Hazard, Sanchez for example if they don't have a DGW) and spread the cash in order to have better players on the bench, diverging completely from the standard structure. This could certainly give a higher BB projection but it would come at the cost of weakening your squad in the GW before (when wildcarding) and for some time after (unless hits are taken to re-balance, in which case the cost must be deducted from the extra benefits achieved).

5. Summary 1.

One way or another, I can't see that a gain in excess of 12 points or so by playing the BB in a DGW can be realistically projected. Not if you take the surrounding factors into account. I believe it will often be less than that but let's take 12 as the number. So the question is whether that 12 point gain is worth pursuing.

6. Value of the 2nd Wildcard.

Traditionally this has been the most important tool in the FPL manager's arsenal (or in previous seasons the 'free' wildcard rather than the winter one). Many of the better managers used to deploy it early rather than save it for a late-season DGW. There was no conclusive evidence as to which course of action was better. But the consensus view (with which I would broadly agree) was that it was worth 24-32 points. Let's say 28. Now, if it is worth 28 points, even if it is worth 24, why would we use it to prepare for another chip (BB) when the gain is a projected 12 points? We would be selling it cheap.

OK, maybe you can get a double benefit that way. Maybe you can get the 2nd wildcard benefit plus the upgraded BB benefit. That, I guess, would be the rationale behind combining them. So we need to assess whether that is possible.

7. Compromises to the 2nd Wildcard when used to prepare for a DGW BB.

a) You must wildcard a week before the DGW. That means making decisions with potential injuries to come and more than likely some players/teams still involved in European football, so rotation risk as well. This is risky, even assuming that you would want to wildcard in the DGW otherwise. A week of information at that stage of the season is valuable.
b) You must also compromise your team the week before the DGW because you are wildcarding with the DGW in mind. How much you choose to compromise it is up to you but almost inevitably you will lose players a week before you would otherwise choose to. And those playing more cautiously will probably reduce the projected benefit of the DGW BB by keeping more SGW players (see above). Swings and roundabouts here.
c) The fact of needing to focus on 15 players rather than 11 to play in the DGW will cause further compromises (as referred to above). You may well compromise your squad for the weeks after as a result. Many GW33/34 wildcarders last season claimed to have done well in the management of this but many of them have did so by taking multiple hits. The need for those hits may well have been reduced or eliminated had they only been focusing on 11 players for the DGW.
d) This is probably the most important one. You deny yourself the wildcard at another time because you are saving it for the DGW!
Now, maybe you really don't need it before. But last season, for example, a lot of short teams were fielded in GW30 and a lot of hits were also taken that week. The rough shape of the DGWs was clear by then. For some managers that would probably have been an ideal time to deploy the 2nd wildcard. If they were too fixated on the 2nd wildcard/BB combo then they might well not even consider that option.
e) And if not needed before, then surely the 2nd wildcard is best used in the DGW itself. With the possibility to have 11 DGW players and 4 non-playing SGW subs ready for the next gameweek.

8. Summary 2.

Now, all of this is very difficult to quantify statistically so we must rely on rationality. For every manager that does well out of the 2nd Wildcard/BB combo (or says they have done) there will be others that will say the opposite. So anecdotal evidence won't help us.

The crux of my argument is therefore very simple. The DGW BB may be worth around an expected 12 points more than a SGW BB. The compromises in how and when you use the 2nd wildcard and the negative effects before and after the DGW just aren't likely to be justified by that 12-point gain. If the constellation of fixtures around the DGW perfectly favour the combo you could come out ahead that way. But in all likelihood they won't be that perfect. And if you wait to find out you are likely to have given yourself no other reasonable way to go anyway.

That's the point. By waiting to see you corner yourself into what is very likely to be a sub-optimal position. Better to use the BB earlier in the season, take the 12 or so points and get that distraction out of the way. BB is not that big of a deal and it's not worth basing your whole season strategy around.

That's what I will be doing. And I will use my 2nd wildcard at the time when I see it gives me best advantage in its own right, not confused or compromised by the need to prepare for a DGW BB. Most likely I will use it in the main DGW itself.

9. Caveats and Options.

a) Some managers like to run with a cheap, non-playing defender and a cheap, non-playing GK as well as a cheap midfielder for most of the season. That's not my preferred tactic, I have a rule that all my defenders must be starters for their clubs and I rotate them. I also rotate GKs. But I appreciate that playing BB earlier in the season may be less inviting for those that like an ultra-cheap (essentially useless) bench.

b) In arguing that 2nd Wildcard/BB is a flawed combo I don't say that playing BB shortly after a wildcard is a bad idea. But maybe it could be better after the 1st wildcard? You could set up accordingly and then gradually transition into your long-term preferred structure afterwards. That's something am still looking at and it's also something that would work for those that prefer an ultra-cheap bench most of the time.

However, playing BB in GW1, 2 or 3 (also in effect shortly after a wildcard) looks to me to be the best route if you select sure starters. Given that many good managers will use their 1st wildcard before GW4 anyway (and that's my intention) the cost to squad structure is very minimal that way. I can set my initial team up for 3 weeks' fixtures including BB. And after the wildcard I'll settle into my long-term structure.

10. Final Summary

That's why I believe a DGW BB is a flawed strategy and this post explains the strategy I am using instead. I don't want or need to convince anyone else to do the same but as I keep getting asked, there's the explanation. 🙂