Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 4 – The Weak

After running through the teams with the most favourable schedules over the next six Gameweeks yesterday, we now take time out to assess those sides who look set to struggle over the coming period.

Swansea

(CHE, sot, MCI, LIV, ars, WAT)
While the Welsh side face four of their next six matches at the Liberty Stadium, it’s hard to see Francesco Guidolin’s side enjoying much success.

Four of their upcoming opponents (Liverpool, Southampton, Chelsea and Man City) feature in the top five for total attempts so far this season, while Arsenal are the joint-third highest scorers with six goals.

The prospects for the Swansea defence don’t look too bright, then, with only the home fixture against Watford in Gameweek 9 looking to have any real clean sheet potential.

At the other end of the pitch, the Swans will come up against a Chelsea defence that has only conceded two goals thus far, while Southampton and Liverpool have allowed the second and third fewest number of shots from inside the box respectively.

The matches against Man City and Arsenal also throw up testing match-ups, so it’s perhaps best to ignore the likes of Gylfi Sigurdsson at this point of the season, while Leroy Fer will more than likely struggle to maintain his early season form.

Jordi Amat owners may keep faith given his 4.1 price tag in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), but with Neil Taylor now likely to replace Stephen Kingsley at left-back, beyond the Spaniard it’s unlikely any Swansea defenders will be worth owning over the next month or so.

Southampton

(ars, SWA, whm, lei, BUR, mci)

The Saints have got off to a slow start under new manager Claude Puel, totaling just two points from their first three matches, and face four daunting away trips over the next six Gameweeks.

The south coast club have failed to register a clean sheet so far, and will come up against Man City and Leicester, the two sides that have created the most big chances so far this season, with nine apiece.

Arsenal and West Ham should be rejuvenated by some big-name players returning to full fitness, so those matches also appear unlikely to yield any defensive returns. Swansea and Burnley have both only scored twice thus far, though, and those clashes do offer a ray of light for the prospects of Saints defenders.

The fixtures are perhaps slightly more promising from an attacking point of view, with West Ham having conceded five goals so far, and allowed 30 shots from inside the box, the fourth highest number in the top flight. The Swansea and Burnley fixtures are also favourable, but it’s unlikely matches at Arsenal, Leicester and Man City will provide much joy for Southampton attackers.

It’s no great surprise Nathan Redmond and Shane Long are among the 10 most transferred players out so far this week in FPL then, while premium defenders such as Virgil van Dijk and Jose Fonte appear very unlikely to live up to their price tags.

Leicester

(liv, BUR, mun, SOT, che, CPL)

The Foxes are another club who face a very tough run of away fixtures, with trips to Anfield, Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge in the next five Gameweeks.

All three clubs have registered impressive defensive statistics so far this season, ranking in the top five for fewest big chances conceded and fewest shots allowed inside the box, so Leicester attackers face some difficult match-ups on the road.

The home fixture with Southampton in Gameweek 7 could also prove to be tricky, leaving only the clashes against Burnley and Crystal Palace as favourable from an attacking perspective over the coming weeks.

It’s a similar story analysing the prospects of the Foxes rearguard, with Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea all packed with attacking talent, meaning defensive returns could be in short supply. Southampton and Burnley have only created one big chance between them, though, perhaps offering some hope to those who still own a Leicester defender.

The start of the Foxes Champions league campaign also has to be taken into consideration, with rotation seemingly inevitable in the attacking positions. So that, along with the tough upcoming schedule, means there are probably stronger premium options available to us than the likes of Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez.

Also be wary of…

Chelsea
In the short-term, favourable trips to Swansea and Hull mean Chelsea assets should continue to provide good options for Fantasy managers both in defence and attack.

Blues defenders, in particular, could find it hard to garner many points from the other four matches on the current slate (LIV, ars, LEI, MUN), and with rotation also a concern following the signings of David Luiz and Marcos Alonso, are perhaps best ignored for the time being.

With three of those four tougher fixtures coming on home soil, many FPL bosses may be happy to stay loyal to the in-form Eden Hazard, and, to a slightly lesser extent, Diego Costa.

Middlesbrough
While ‘Boro’s favourable start to the season continues with a home encounter against Crystal Palace this weekend, their schedule turns a lot trickier from Gameweek 5 onwards (eve, TOT, whm, WAT, ars).

The Watford fixture in Gameweek 8 offers some respite, but Aitor Karanka’s defence will have their work cut out to keep clean sheets in the other four matches, lessening the appeal of the likes of George Friend over the coming weeks.

Alvaro Negredo has been the most transferred in player in FPL this season, seeing his price rise to 6.9, but the former Valencia striker doesn’t look a great option beyond Gameweek 4, with the Everton, Tottenham and Arsenal match-ups in particular looking very unfavourable.

Burnley
Home fixtures against Hull and Watford in the next three mean those currently holding onto Burnley assets will be happy to keep faith at this juncture.

With a trip to champions Leicester sandwiched in between those matches at Turf Moor, and subsequent clashes against Arsenal, Southampton and Everton, we should perhaps be wary of placing our faith in Clarets players for too much longer.

Tom Heaton should continue to deliver strong value in goal though due to his ability to rack up save points, but other than that, with Andre Gray’s FA charge still yet to be resolved, Burnley players may perhaps best be ignored in the medium term.

West Brom
The Baggies face three away matches (bou, sto, sun) over the next four Gameweeks, while their other three fixtures over the coming period (WHM, TOT, liv) offer up testing opponents for Tony Pulis’ men.

In reality, West Brom attackers have again failed to impress in some favourable match-ups during the opening weeks of the season, so the likes of Salomon Rondon and Matty Phillips may continue to be largely ignored by the vast majority of Fantasy managers.

Having kept two clean sheets already, those three away matches, against teams yet to register their first wins of the season, should mean the likes of Ben Foster, and all of the regular starters at the back for the Baggies remain among the most popular budget options for FPL bosses.