The Burning Question – Is it time to spend in defence?

With Spurs registering a fourth clean sheet and Laurent Koscielny making his move as the go-to Fantasy Premier League defender, suddenly there’s a suggestion it’s time to re-assess our back line options.

Having settled on defences largely populated by mid-price and budget options, is it now time to re-align our sights and investigate the defensive heavy-hitters?

We posed that Burning Question to a cast of Fantasy Football Scout contributors…

Paul says…

Over the years, the strategy of investing in budget assets at the back and splashing the cash in attack is a tried and tested one.

Arguably, though, this season has handed us more options than ever before.

The emergence of great value picks in midfield may well allow us to strengthen in defence a little earlier than we typically tend to.

Yes, Alexis Sanchez has had a great start to the season, but he’s only seven points clear of Theo Walcott and 3.6 more expensive.

Walcott, along with Heung-Min Son and Michail Antonio have equalled or bettered all but one forward (Diego Costa) thus far.

All three are under 8.0.

Throw in Liverpool’s ridiculously good schedule from Gameweek 9-18 and one or both of Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho look very enticing, having both averaged more than six points per match so far.

That pair are priced under 8.5, while in-form team-mates James Milner and Adam Lallana are even cheaper.

Sergio Aguero will remain my go-to premium attacker but by focusing on value for money elsewhere – and forgoing pricey picks such as Sanchez and Zlatan Ibrahimovic – there seems to be significant scope to invest in pricier rearguards.

Spurs and Arsenal have looked solid at the back, with the Gunners’ acquisition of Shkodran Mustafi looking a great piece of business.

With both Man City and Leicester offering first-team regulars at 5.0 ahead of some excellent upcoming schedules, shopping outside of the budget bracket seems more viable than ever.

Dufflinks aka Simon March 2014/15 FPL Champion says….

You’d have to search hard to find a compelling reason to invest in defence based on the opening seven Gameweeks.

Even Tony ‘The Chambermaid’ Pulis looks unable to deliver clean sheets on a regular basis and, while Spurs have probably been the standout team so far in this respect, even they’ve shown themselves susceptible to the odd defensive lapse.

Meanwhile, there seems to be a new outstanding attacking option emerging every Gameweek. No wonder people are shifting their budget into attack.

But this defensive inconsistency isn’t necessarily a new thing.

Clean sheets are notoriously hard to predict early on in the season, but then, at some point, a switch seems to get flicked and, suddenly, the teams that you would typically expect to do well defensively start doing well defensively. According to Fantasy lore, this tends to happen somewhere around the middle of the season.

But this campaign may well be different.

It feels like we’re seeing more penalties and goals from set plays, the presumed catalyst being the new rules penalising contact in the area more harshly. If this isn’t relaxed, or if teams don’t quickly learn to defend better under them, clean sheets and, by extension, defensive points will continue to suffer.

However, there’s also a potential opportunity here as these rules play right into the hands of those defenders with good attacking instincts from set-plays. Standouts in this category include Scott Dann at Crystal Palace, Virgil van Dijk at Southampton and Spurs’ Toby Alderweireld.

However, were I to invest in a premium defender right now, I’d be looking at Koscielny at Arsenal.

He has already notched twice already this season or, the perhaps less-obvious choice, his team-mate Shkodran Mustafi who, while yet to score for the Gunners, had a similar goalscoring record to Koscielny while in Spain.

Arsenal are one of those teams you’d expect to do well defensively and, with a good run of fixtures to come, should that switch get flicked early this year, it could be those two who profit the most.

Jonty says…

I’ve always thought that it is important to spread money across the positions – I often like to have at least two defenders I’m happy to play each week, either because they offer a reliable source of clean sheets or provide attacking potential.

Leighton Baines, Antonio Valencia and most recently Patrick Van Aanholt have all graced my defence with their presence this season, and I’m more than happy to spend a little more to upgrade even further by converting one to an Arsenal’s or Tottenham asset.

The defence has been and continues to be a great way of opting for relatively cheap differentials, as those who drafted in Koscielny ahead of his Gameweek 7 “goal” can testify.

Bonus points are also key to consider when spending big in defence.

Earlier this week I took a look at the bonus magnets so far, including an examination of FPL’s Bonus Point System, which is used to allocate the points.

Only two players, James Milner and Kevin De Bruyne, have better FPL Bonus Point System scores than Daley Blind, who looks an excellent investment at 5.6.

Blind, along with Spurs’ Kyle Walker, are the only defenders to join the likes of Sergio Aguero and Romelu Lukaku in earning seven or more bonus points. Attacking threat, and in Walker’s case, clean sheet potential make them standout picks.

Laurent Koscielny also looks a great option, with solid clean sheet potential over Arsenal’s forthcoming kind run of opponents. However, while he’s proven his attacking potential, in terms of bonus, he will often be overshadowed by team-mates further up the pitch.

Koscielny’s goals shouldn’t cloud our judgement – he won’t score every week, so I’m currently favouring Blind and Walker as the more consistent points scorers in defence.

Andy says…

Big-hitting defenders aren’t something I usually pay attention to until later in the season.

So far in this campaign, my tactic has been the same with Antonio Valencia and Leighton Baines at £5.5m being the highest priced defenders I’ve owned.

With two free transfers going into the international break, however, I have started to look towards both Arsenal and Spurs defence given the number of clean sheets Spurs have registered, coupled with the Gunners’ excellent fixtures.

Big-name defenders rarely offer viable captain options, and they’re not players that rouse excitement but they can bring in a steady stream of points once you include bonus.

I said on the Scoutcast recently that someone like Hector Bellerin at £6.5m could be great value versus a midfielder at the same price. With the fixtures ahead of Arsenal, I can see players like Koscielny and Bellerin bringing in a steady seven to nine points per game, and with their price tags, this has to be something to consider.

For me, the key question surrounds settling on the big-hitters in attack.

It’s difficult to fit in Sergio Aguero, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexis Sanchez while spending in defence. In fact, for my own team, I would likely have to go without both Ibrahimovic and Sanchez to afford the Bellerin option.

That being said, I’m still considering it.

If Theo Walcott can retain his starting spot, I think he can be great value and, coupled with Hector Bellerin, could provide more points than a Sanchez and Jordi Amat combination.

While Bellerin may already be owned by 25% of teams, I would imagine if we scan our mini-leagues, he’s still a differential. And with Swansea City (h), Middlesbrough (h) and Sunderland (a) to come in the next three, he could emerge as a key asset.

Granville says…

Should we be guided by circumstance?

Koscielny actually missed a sitter and would have scored seven points if the laws of football had been applied.

When we isolate clean sheets, there might well be reasons to invest in Arsenal’s defence given upcoming fixtures, but they don’t offer quite the degree of goal threat that other sides do.

No Arsenal defender has more than three attempts at goal and, with that in mind, I would still be concentrating my spend on the Gunners attack.

If I was looking primarily for clean sheets, there are fewer tighter teams this season than Southampton and, with the next four of six at home, they might offer stronger value even if the fixtures are a mixed bag.

Spurs, on the other hand, are currently looking like a defence that can provide points at both ends of the pitch. They’ve claimed four clean sheets and the full-backs have returned three assists and a goal, together with a hatful of bonus points.

Manchester City are playing too open to be considered right now and are error ridden, while rivals United face a tricky run of fixtures.

Liverpool are another side who have four out of six at home, but only Nathaniel Clyne has been ever-present this season.

Statistically, Liverpool have been one of the tightest teams on show in terms of chances conceded, but they’ve suffered through individual errors. If this can be remedied, Clyne is your go-to man as he’s showing potential to score attacking points.

Mark says…

I’m wondering whether I’m being swayed solely by Spurs’ recent form and Koscielny’s output but, yes, I am currently considerably a policy that moves funds into defence.

For me, it’s always a viable tactic to start considering defensive investment as we near the Christmas period. I always feel that the crowded schedule and rest and rotation promotes lower scoring matches and allows the more robust defences to earn points.

It always seems like a spell to grind out results rather than go for the throat and gamble on all-out attacking football.

It means making sacrifices – I’m considering downgrading Etienne Capoue to a rock-bottom fifth midfield option, plus shedding Jermain Defoe to find another million.

Reluctantly, I will likely have to lose either Raheem Sterling or Theo Walcott, or even downgrade Alexis Sanchez.

For now, I want to postpone that decision – particularly while Arsenal’s fixtures suggest the goals will continue to flow.

Toby Alderweireld is my top target. Perhaps not immediately given that he faces four in six away from home but, eventually, he will find his way into my squad.

Koscielny may lead the way right now, but Alderweireld promises to rival his goal count. I also feel that Spurs will continue to flourish as the top defence, ensuring that the Belgian presents exceptional value.

It’s not a question of “if” but rather “when”.

In all likelihood I’ll have other issues to fix over the next month but, if form and injuries allow it, I’ll be manufacturing a move for Alderweireld and deciding where to make the sacrifice.