Ticking the Boxes – The Case For Junior Stanislas

I’ve been keeping a Fantasy Football spreadsheet for a couple of years now, with the intention of automating my transfers based on the elements I personally feel to be important for success in the game. It’s based exclusively on the data available from the Fantasy Premier League website.

Players are analysed based on their Fantasy Football  ‘GABS’ (Goals, Assists, Bonus, Saves and Clean Sheets) points calculated from each week. Teams are then analysed based on the goals scored and conceded, both independently and on the teams they faced.

At the end of it, this spreadsheet compares all the players in the game and suggests players  it thinks are worth taking a look at, based on a raft of different categories that I think are important.These categories include whether they are a good moneyball pick, their potential to be consistent and their recent form.

I thought it might be interesting to take a closer look at some of the spreadsheet’s suggestions.

Spreadsheet Top Five

As has been the case for much of this season, midfielders are dominating the radar. The top five players are:

1. Adam Lallana
2. Junior Stanislas
3. Kevin De Bruyne
4. Alexis Sanchez
5. James Milner

Of this quintet, only Sanchez has an ownership above 20%, so the rest could be considered differentials. Bournemouth’s Stanislas in particular is an actual differential with ownership below 1%, and I’m interested to take a look a closer look at his statistics to why the spreadsheet is so impressed with him.   Is it just his 21 FPL points haul against Hull, or is there anything more reliable in his locker?

Stanislas’ Fixtures

A note of caution to kick off, as in the very short term he is expected to struggle at home to Spurs in Gameweek 9. With four clean sheets, and never more than one goal conceded, Tottenham have got the highest rated defence in the game. Although Spurs’ defence is significantly less effective away from home, and Bournemouth’s attack at home is relatively strong, the spreadsheet does not fancy his chances.

That said, he could be one to watch, as despite the imminent game not looking good, the games to follow are quite appealing.

Looking ahead to the next six games, the spreadsheet suggests that Bournemouth’s attack has a good chance of results.  A closer look reveals this is boosted significantly by their fixtures between GW10-12 when they play Middlesbrough, Sunderland and Stoke, all of whom have struggled so far this season. These three games, combined with their strong home form (flattered by the battering of Hull), suggests Stanislas could continue to perform in the medium term.

Stanislas’ Stats

Across the spreadsheet’s key ranking Stanislas is top in two, and scores well across many of the rest. A player with a strong PP90 will always be looked upon favourably by the spreadsheet, because that is what it is predominantly based on – the events that have actually transpired and been converted into points. I’m not going to be drawn back into this argument this week!

The first category in which Stanislas tops is the moneyball ranking. Roughly speaking this is looking for value players, who are scoring a high number of points compared to their cost. He just pips Joe Allen with Charlie Austin in third place.

The other category in which Stanislas is considered the best is his consistency, which assesses a player’s ability to score points across multiple games. This favours those who get assists and bonus points as well as goals. Stanislas has returned six, point scoring events (goals twice, assists twice, bonus twice) across his last three games, and has shown a complete blank on two occasions. This is enough for him to beat Kevin De Bruyne for the top spot, with Kasper Schmeichel and Heung-Min Son close behind.

In terms of  form, Stanislas is doing great thanks to his great recent scores across the last three games, along with his limited minutes in the games before. But as a great comment from sinik pointed out, “PPG may focus my attention on a target, but it’s the underlying stats or eye test that will confirm him as a transfer for me”.

So for members only, let’s see if the underlying stats back up his recent good form, or if he is likely to be just another flash in the pan.

CONCLUSION

Stanislas has had great results from his opening five games, with his most recent three giving him great points. His PPG and PP90 both indicate that he’s a Fantasy asset worth a closer look.

When it comes to consistent assist or goal potential, Members who have seen the underlying statistics will know which he is likely to excel at in the coming weeks.

Overall for his price he certainly looks a great choice for the fourth midfield slot.