This article aims to find out the best Fantasy Premier League captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form, fixture and bookies odds.
In Gameweek 13, the model’s top pick, Roberto Firmino, failed to deliver attacking returns in what was a low-scoring Gameweek for the many who backed Liverpool assets. This means that this strategy now has a five out of seven success rate. On the plus side this method did highlight Swansea ‘midfielder’ Gylfi Sigurdsson as a differential captaincy choice. Those who backed him with the armband were rewarded with 20 points.
REFINING THE ODDS
This article will now focus more on the form and fixtures elements and offer the bookies odds combined element at the end of the results table.
For this method, I take six popular captaincy options, according to the FFScout captaincy poll and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (SiB) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. This article will now factor in the players PPG from their last 2 home and last 2 away games respectively, higher weighting will be given according to the players fixture. E.g. if a player is playing in an away fixture, their away PPG will be given a higher weighting, if 2 players PPG’s are still the same, then the players total PPG will be taken into account. This will give a new and detailed look into each players’ respective form.
I understand that the odds segment can sometimes heavily outweigh others (e.g. Aguero is always likely to be low odds for scoring) so from this week, the total rank column at the end of the results table will include odds factored in, for those who like their odds taken into account.
With that in mind let’s take a look at Gameweek 14’s results.
FIXTURE
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded SIB Total |
| 1. | Kane | Swansea (H) | 11 | 10 37 58 |
| 2. | Sanchez | West Ham (A) | 7 | 10 39 56 |
| 3. | Ibrahimovic | Everton (A) | 3 | 7 37 47 |
| 4. | Defoe | Leicester (H) | 7 | 3 28 38 |
| 5. | Hazard | Man City (A) | 3 | 1 20 24 |
| 6. | Aguero | Chelsea (H) | 1 | 0 18 19 |
FORM
| Rank | Player | PPG | Goals | Assists H-PPG A-PPG |
| 1. | Kane* | 7.66 | 3 | 0 13 5 |
| 2.5 | Defoe | 8 | 3 | 2 9 7 |
| 2.5 | Hazard | 9.75 | 3 | 2 10.5 9 |
| 4.5 | Sanchez | 7.5 | 4 | 0 8 7 |
| 4.5 | Ibrahimovic | 5.75 | 3 | 0 4.5 7 |
| 6. | Aguero | 9 | 5 | 1 3.5 7 |
RESULTS
Rank Player Form Fixture Total Total Rank with odds factored in
1. Kane 1 1 2 1st
2.5 Sanchez 4.5 2 6.5 3rd
4.5 Hazard 2.5 5 7.5 5th
4.5 Ibrahimovic 4.5 3 7.5 4th
6. Aguero 6 6 12 6th
ANALYSIS
Taking fixture and form into account, Harry Kane is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method. He faces a Swansea side that currently shows no sign of defensive improvement. Swansea have conceded 11 goals in the last four games and are joint top for big chances conceded in the same time period. Interestingly, Kane sits at the summit of the total rank with odds factored into the table as well.
7 years, 4 months agoHAve a feeling this will be third time lucky over the last three weeks. Swansea are leaky - Kane has five in five. What could go wrong? 😉