The word “troll” is a popular term within the Fantasy Football community, referring to a frustrating player who fails to score when expected and are prone to surprise points hauls.
My observation is that there are two types of troll:
Form Trolls who score big points over a sustained period of fixtures only to blank over the next Game week.
Fixture Trolls who under performs against a weakened team but score highly against stronger opponents.
This article will concentrate on Form Trolls (see part one for Fixture troll analysis.)
Concept
To analyse a form troll I first need to define a player in Form and a Form Troll.
Form – player must have at least 5 PPG (average points per game) from the previous three fixtures
Maintains Form – a Form player who scores over 5 points in a Gameweek
Form Troll – a Form player who scores less than 5 points in a Gameweek
With that in mind let’s take Everton striker Romelu Lukaku as an example and calculate the proportion of times he delivers or lets us down after a run of form.
He is a player that my earlier analysis of fixtures showed was not a fixture troll, as he delivered in the main when expected. But, given his reputation is he perhaps a form troll? Let’s find out.
According to my analysis Lukaku has a troll percentage of 50%, from 14 occasions when in form. I think it is difficult to maintain a three game 5PPG so anything above a 65% is classified as a Form Troll. As with the fixture analysis this reveals that the Belgian marksman is certainly not a troll.
| Player | Form (3 Game 5+PPG) | Total Continued Form | Total Troll | Maintains Form % | Troll % |
| Romelu Lukaku | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 50% |
| GW | Fixture | Points | Form (3 game PPG) | GW Form | Form or Troll |
| 2 | WBA (A) 1 – 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | STK (H) 1 – 0 | 2 | |||
| 4 | SUN (A) 0 – 3 | 17 | |||
| 5 | MID (H) 3 – 1 | 12 | 6.7 | Form | Maintains Form |
| 6 | BOU (A) 1 – 0 | 2 | 10.3 | Form | Troll |
| 7 | CRY (H) 1 – 1 | 8 | 10.3 | Form | Maintains Form |
| 8 | MCI (A) 1 – 1 | 8 | 7.3 | Form | Maintains Form |
| 9 | BUR (A) 2 – 1 | 5 | 6.0 | Form | Maintains Form |
| 10 | WHU (H) 2 – 0 | 12 | 7.0 | Form | Maintains Form |
| 11 | CHE (A) 5 – 0 | 2 | 8.3 | Form | Troll |
| 12 | SWA (H) 1 – 1 | 2 | 6.3 | Form | Troll |
| 13 | SOU (A) 1 – 0 | 1 | 5.3 | Form | Troll |
| 14 | MUN (H) 1 – 1 | 1 | 1.7 | ||
| 15 | WAT (A) 3 – 2 | 12 | 1.3 | ||
| 16 | ARS (H) 2 – 1 | 2 | 4.7 | ||
| 17 | LIV (H) 0 – 1 | 2 | 5.0 | Form | Troll |
| 18 | LEI (A) 0 – 2 | 8 | 5.3 | Form | Maintains Form |
| 19 | HUL (A) 2 – 2 | 2 | 4.0 | ||
| 20 | SOU (H) 3 – 0 | 11 | 4.0 | ||
| 21 | MCI (H) 4 – 0 | 5 | 7.0 | Form | Maintains Form |
| 22 | CRY (A) 0 – 1 | 2 | 6.0 | Form | Troll |
| 23 | STK (A) 1 – 1 | 2 | 6.0 | Form | Troll |
| 24 | BOU (H) 6 – 3 | 21 | 3.0 |
Now thanks to Lukaku we have a method of calculating and determining a Form Troll so can summarise other top owned players below. Remember a score above 65% and the troll alarm bells start ringing.
Defenders
| Player | Form (3 Game 4 +PPG) | Total Continued Form | Total Troll | Maintains Form % | Troll % |
| Kyle Walker | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 31% |
| Gareth McAuley | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0% | 100% |
| César Azpilicueta | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 50% |
| Laurent Koscielny | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 55% |
| Gary Cahill | 14 | 9 | 5 | 64% | 36% |
| Marcos Alonso | 15 | 11 | 4 | 73% | 27% |
| Seamus Coleman | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 56% |
| Leighton Baines | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50% | 50% |
- For defender 4 ppg has been applied as defenders generally score lower compared to midfield and forwards
Midfielders
| Player | Form (3 Game 5 +PPG) | Total Continued Form | Total Troll | Maintains Form % | Troll % |
| Alexis Sánchez | 19 | 11 | 8 | 58% | 42% |
| Eden Hazard | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 50% |
| Bamidele Alli | 13 | 6 | 7 | 46% | 54% |
| Matt Phillips | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 44% |
| Adam Lallana | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 58% |
| Christian Eriksen | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33% | 67% |
| Roberto Firmino | 13 | 3 | 10 | 23% | 77% |
| Ross Barkley | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75% |
| Glyfi Sigurdsson | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 55% |
Forwards
| Player | Form (3 Game 5 +PPG) | Total Continued Form | Total Troll | Maintains Form % | Troll % |
| Zlatan Ibrahimovic | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 23% |
| Diego Da Silva Costa | 15 | 12 | 3 | 80% | 20% |
| Romelu Lukaku | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 50% |
| Jermain Defoe | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27% | 73% |
| Harry Kane | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 50% |
Form Troll Conclusion
Following this analysis five form trolls have emerged – Jermain Defoe, Ross Barkley, Roberto Firmino, Christian Eriksen and Gareth McAuley.
This quintet could be seen as risky captain choices for upcoming double Gameweeks and are proven to not sustain form as well as other top popular players.
This data also highlights that if these players score heavily in a single Gameweek, jump on the “band wagon” early as they are capable of short term form but you may miss out if you hold a week for further review.
The other note is these players can often get double figure points, which could boost their three game PPG, so captaining a week following a explosive points performance is not recommended
Taking into account both from and fixture trolling, Ross Barkley is the only player who falls under both Troll categories. He is a very risky captain choice in Gameweek 28 when the FA cup impacts the fixtures and he becomes a captain option in a small pool of playing assets.
7 years, 2 months agoThanks for this. Really adds to the fixture analysis and good to see that Lukaku is no form troll either. Bodes well for GWK 26 captaincy.