The word “troll” is a popular term within the Fantasy Football community, referring to a frustrating player who fails to score when expected and are prone to surprise points hauls.
My observation is that there are two types of troll:
Form Trolls who score big points one week only to blank for many Gameweeks to follow.
Fixture Trolls who under performs against a weakened team but score highly against stronger opponents.
This article will concentrate on Fixture Trolls, with a potential follow up article on Form trolls to come at a later date.
Concept
I have compared some of the most owned players Points Per Game (PPG) vs the Bottom six clubs, top six clubs and all Gameweeks so far (up to Gameweek 24). This method should highlight players who fail to score against weaker teams but play well against top teams
Bottom Six – Swansea, Hull, Crystal Palace, Middleburgh, Leister City, Sunderland
Top Six – Chelsea, Tottenham, Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal
Notes: Only a game were a player plays at least 1 minute is counted in PPG. The PPG statistic is used as some clubs have played more total games against top and bottom six clubs
Goalkeepers
Top 6 PPG | Bottom 6 PPG | GW1-24 PPG | |
David De Gea | 3.57 | 3.50 | 3.625 |
Tom Heaton | 4.71 | 4.29 | 4.73 |
Thibaut Courtois | 3.11 | 5.63 | 4.29 |
Ben Foster | 2.57 | 4.33 | 3.42 |
Petr Cech | 2.43 | 4.43 | 3.33 |
Hugo Lloris | 3.71 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
Key Points
· There are no trolls in goal
· Ben Foster and Peter Cech struggle against top six clubs so playing them with a non playing keeper may be a bad idea.
· Tom Heaton is extremely consistent against all opposition and is probably fixture proof and therefore could be played every week.
· Thibaut Courtois is virtually guaranteed six FPL points against bottom six clubs.
· Hugo Loris is consistent and not a bad single playing keeper.
Defenders
Top 6 PPG | Bottom 6 PPG | GW1-24 PPG | |
Kyle Walker | 3.63 | 6.38 | 5.32 |
Gareth McAuley | 1.57 | 5.67 | 3.75 |
César Azpilicueta | 2.67 | 6.50 | 4.75 |
Laurent Koscielny | 1.83 | 5.00 | 4.36 |
Gary Cahill | 3.11 | 7.13 | 5.04 |
Marcos Alonso | 5.13 | 8.29 | 6.316 |
Seamus Coleman | 3.43 | 7.00 | 4.81 |
Leighton Baines | 5.60 | 5.00 | 5.31 |
Antonio Valencia | 3.14 | 5.33 | 3.85 |
Key Points
· There are no defender Trolls
· Cahill, Colemen and Valencia are bullies against smaller teams but could be benched against big clubs.
· Alonso, Baines and possibly Walker should play every game. They can deliver big hauls against any type of club.
· Koscielny and Azpilicueta are a great option when they have an excellent run of easy games but not for a mixed bag of red and blue fixtures.
Midfielders
Top 6 PPG | Bottom 6 PPG | GW1-24 PPG | |
Alexis Sánchez | 4.71 | 7.29 | 7 |
Eden Hazard | 6.67 | 4.00 | 6.3 |
Dele Alli | 5.57 | 3.63 | 5.78 |
Matt Phillips | 2.00 | 5.33 | 4.74 |
Adam Lallana | 3.63 | 6.25 | 5.14 |
Christian Eriksen | 4.25 | 7.14 | 5.61 |
Roberto Firmino | 2.71 | 6.56 | 5.04 |
Ross Barkley | 5.60 | 3.00 | 4.09 |
· We have our first trolls in Chelsea schemer Eden Hazard, Everton’s Ross Barkley and Dele Alli of Spurs who all score better against top teams and under circumstances were they would unlikely to be captain picks.
· Baggies winger Phillips does not score well against big clubs so having a strong fifth midfielder in the squad is important for owners
· Firmino and Lallana are bullies so should only be purchased for a run of easy games
· Alexis Sanchez and Christian Eriksen are fixture proof
Forwards
Top 6 PPG | Bottom 6 PPG | GW1-24 PPG | |
Zlatan Ibrahimovic | 4.00 | 6.88 | 6.09 |
Diego Da Silva Costa | 5.00 | 8.00 | 6.23 |
Romelu Lukaku | 3.33 | 7.29 | 6.09 |
Jermain Defoe | 4.63 | 8.33 | 5.66 |
Harry Kane | 3.29 | 6.17 | 6.21 |
· No Strikers are trolls.
· Lukaku does not perform well against the top six.
· Defoe and Costa could be fixture proof. Defoe looks a good captain differential against weak teams
· Ibrahimovic can deliver modest returns against top sides but he prefers minnows.
· Kane may need to be sold when fixtures become difficult
Fixture Troll Conclusion
Following this analysis just three trolls emerge – Eden Hazard, Ross Barkley and Dele Alli.
Here we have three trolls who unexpectedly turn up against the strong teams but often fail to deliver against weaker sides. This unpredictability makes them risky picks in terms of the captaincy.
Lukaku, a player who unfairly has gained the troll tag on a number of occasions, emerges as one of the most predictable captaincy picks, as his four goal haul against Bournemouth in Gameweek 24 shows.
7 years, 2 months agoI like looking at these numbers even though I don't like the word troll since the players are not really aware of us in any way, shape, or form -- the error is in our inability to perceive how they will perform in any given gameweek, not some flaw in the player himself.
I also appreciate the concept of looking at what performances might defy expectations, but without factoring in home/away and attacking/defending prowess of the opposition, I'm not sure how useful this can be, especially within a single season. They will be playing the reverse fixtures for their remaining matches so I don't know that we can apply any of the information here.
For example, I have been looking at Phillips with increasing frustration, and when I looked at how he did over several gameweeks, he seemed to follow a very predictable pattern of scoring well against poor opposition and poorly against strong opposition. However, in the last few matches, he has been a real disappointment, so my first reaction was to blame him. However, I then ran the comparison tool in the member's area for Phillips 13-20 vs Phillips 21-24, and he is actually doing a better job in several key areas. For me to ditch him because of this statistical variance of blanks lately might actually be shortsighted, and also might lead me to start blaming him as unpredictable when in fact it was me who failed to play the long game.
Cue Phillips RC now that I've posted this long response.
Anyway, thanks for the effort here, it made me think and that is always appreciated.