Market Forces – Gameweek 2

The Fantasy Premier League transfer market continues to match Gameweek results for unpredictability and intrigue.

Marcos Alonso’s brace, along with a sluggish start for some of the highly-owned big guns, has seen “downgrade” transfers – most commonly used as part of a combination of trades – become popular ahead of Gameweek 3.

The strategy frees up cash for managers to spend on the likes of Chelsea’s 7.0-priced wing-back, or for carrying out surgery elsewhere in their squads.

As the dust settles on the most recent round of fixtures, we at whogottheassist.com continue to review and comment on trends and behaviours in the market, looking at common themes and giving our view on the viability of the transfers taking place.

Here are the top targets earning the attention of FPL managers as they react to Gameweek 2’s events.

Chicharito

A brace away at Southampton for West Ham, who were a man down on 33 minutes after fellow new signing Marko Arnautovic decided to practice his WWE moves, meant maximum bonus and a 13-point return for the Mexican.

That has certainly turned the heads of FPL managers.

Almost 290,00 have brought him in since Saturday, with a 0.1 price rise on Monday night taking him to 7.1.

It’s worth noting that Chicharito seems to be being brought in as part of a combination of moves, as Roberto Firmino and Jamie Vardy (though the latter’s sales have slowed since he was declared fit by boss Craig Shakespeare) appear to be the main fall guys.

The likes of Alexandre Lacazette and Josh King are also shedding owners in favour of the new Hammers hitman.

So far, Chicharito’s shown us a glimpse of his trademark predatory instincts in front of goal, scoring both of the big chances he’s been handed.

The fixtures appear to be easing up for West Ham, with Newcastle United away and Huddersfield Town at home the next pair of match-ups.

Now that Michail Antonio has returned from injury, Manuel Lanzini seems on the path to match fitness and Andre Ayew also there or thereabouts, it could be that the Hammers’ front line clicks into a higher gear, perhaps offering further cause for celebration among Chicharito’s new owners in the coming weeks.

Paul Pogba

Pogba’s 15-point haul (a goal and two assists) in the 4-0 demolition of Swansea City caused a surge of renewed interest which resulted in a price rise by Saturday night.

The subject of over 278,000 transfers-in so far, Pogba is still 0.1 cheaper than team-mate Henrikh Mkhitaryan (8.2). However, he’s way ahead in terms of ownership, enjoying more than double the managers of the Armenian, who himself has attracted 151,000 new owners since Saturday.

Pogba’s ownership looks set to rise still further over the course of the week, with a blank from the highly-owned Kevin de Bruyne (subject to almost 65,000 sales in the last 24 hours) perhaps seeing yet another wave of downgrades from a premium player to one of the two United midfield assets.

There’s little to separate the duo, as the fantastic article by Prokoptas showed, with the Frenchman’s price tag perhaps being the deciding factor for many come Saturday evening.

There seem to be two clear routes to Pogba (aside from selling De Bruyne): either part company with the stricken Wilfried Zaha or Liverpool’s Mo Salah.

We can’t argue with the Zaha logic, but Salah is a different matter. With Arsenal’s suspect defence up next, getting rid of the Egyptian – in some cases just a week after bringing him in on the back of his 11-point opening performance – might well come back to bite sellers.

Marcos Alonso

Two shots, two goals and 16 points for Alonso in the Wembley clash with Spurs served as a timely reminder of what the Spaniard – a mainstay in so many FPL sides last season – can do.

After disappointing owners by returning a big fat zero on the opening weekend, he came up trumps for those who had kept the faith, with his brace saving many a manager’s Gameweek.

Having attracted over 130,000 new owners already – including more than 72,000 in the last 24 hours – Alonso embodies the change in attitude to defenders we’ve seen in FPL since last season, with some managers now favouring premium assets at the back over mid-priced midfielders.

Saturday’s transfers-in for Chicharito spiked at the same time as those for Alonso on Sunday evening. The fact that the transfers track each other suggests that many FPL managers are bringing both in as a package deal.

The downgrade to a sub-7.0 third striker enables the introduction of the most expensive defender in the game into many squads.

The red card for Kyle Walker in last night’s draw between Man City and Everton could also cause Alonso’s ownership to grow further – more than 142,000 managers have ditched Walker in the last 24 hours alone.

This will be one that requires continued monitoring. If the Spaniard produces the goods again against the Toffees on Sunday, we could see him elevated to (near) essential status once more.

Jese

It was ten points in 70 minutes for Stoke City’s new signing as the former PSG and Real Madrid man announced himself to the Premier League by scoring the decisive goal against Arsenal.

Jese has the potential to be a fantastic bargain at his starting price of just 6.0 and many managers seem to agree – almost 200,000 have swooped ahead of Gameweek 3 so far.

However, it may be a case of caveat emptor (buyer, beware) as Stoke come up against miserly defensive units West Brom and Manchester United over the next pair of fixtures.

For now, Jese’s match fitness may be limited until he gets up to speed. He was definitely struggling at the time of his withdrawal so may be initially limited to 60-70 minutes per outing.

It’s also worth noting that he was not the only 6.0 option to announce himself this weekend.

Watford’s new import Richarlison followed up a promising debut by scoring against Bournemouth, bagging himself 11 points in the process.

The statistics look incredibly enticing for the former Fluminese man, with an eye-catching headline of a shot every 15.1 minutes over the last couple of matches.

Ahead of the home match with Brighton this weekend, it could be that the Brazilian is being overlooked due to Jese’s contribution in a more high-profile match. Richarlison transfers-in (71,000+) currently stands at just a third of Jese’s.

Ahmed Hegazi

The recipient of top billing last time out, the imposing Egyptian’s star continues to rise as more than 254,000 managers have brought him in after another Baggies clean sheet.

No goal this time, but two bonus helped Hegazi to eight points and saw him remain at the top of the defender leaderboard with 23 points, three ahead of unlikely Man United goalscorer Eric Bailly.

No goal attempts this week for Hegazi, compared to three last time around, but the relatively kind upcoming trio of fixtures – Stoke and West Ham at home, Brighton away – seem to be convincing managers to continue investing.

As a result, he’s the first player to have risen twice (by 0.2 to 4.7), netting his early buyers at 4.5 an extra 0.1m to spend if/when they come to sell him on. Not many would have bet on that before the opening Gameweek.

Aaron Mooy

Two shots and one sumptuous goal for the Australian international provided a ten-point return for his trickle of new owners as Huddersfield Town continued their winning start to life in the Premier League.

Having created three big chances so far, assists also appear to be on the cards for the Terriers’ creative lynchpin.

Those who had chosen the likes of Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse and Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser in their initial squads at the 5.5 price point look to be making the swap to Mooy, alongside those selling 7.0 assets (an example being Zaha last weekend).

They make up the core of those buying Mooy, who has 131,000+ new owners.

Given their performance so far, the trio of upcoming fixtures – Southampton and Leicester City at home, West Ham away – will hold little fear for new owners. They appear to be backing Mooy to emerge as the key man in the 5.5 bracket which, lest we forget, boasted the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Josh King and Zaha in recent seasons.

Final thoughts

Fascinating stuff all round.

The data shows that there’s a diverse range of options being chosen by managers, with many moves seemingly coming as a package deal where one transfer downgrades an asset in one position to enable an upgrade in another.

In particular, the re-emergence of Alonso appears to have sparked the more extreme behaviour we’re seeing this week. The reminder of his explosive attacking potential caused managers to either cash in their free transfers or take hits to reconfigure their squad in order to acquire the Spaniard – regardless of his hefty price tag.

It’s also interesting to see that, of those we mentioned last week, only Hegazi remains as a force in the market.

Jamie Vardy (injury) Mo Salah (rotation) and Granit Xhaka (blank) have all seen their bandwagons stall, with others quickly rising to take their place.

Romelu Lukaku’s goal scoring form continues to attract more new owners, with Harry Kane’s second consecutive one-pointer tempting many to switch directly to the Belgian.

Looking at the data so far, we can only predict one thing as the season enters its third Gameweek: further unpredictability.

This is a new series of articles written by Nick (Matamatics) and Tom (Individual), founders of ‘Who Got The Assist’ (www.whogottheassist.com, @WGTA_FPL on Twitter) – a website and podcast devoted to FPL.