Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

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1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. PlayPercentage
    9 days, 17 hours ago

    I can't see Pep rushing Aguero back.
    Next three PL games are against Stoke, Burnley and WBA.
    Not the best sides to face if you are recovering from a broken rib and don't want a physical battle.

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 17 hours ago

      Could easily get 60 vs Stoke to get him ready for midweek

    2. Wild Rover
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 17 hours ago

      No way did he have a broken rib if he's even in contention

  2. New Post
  3. Lucio's Limelight
    9 days, 17 hours ago

    Is Ritchie worth keeping?

    1. CSF150473
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 13 hours ago

      He's on spot kick duties if I'm not mistaking?

    2. thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 1 hour ago

      I don't think so, given that Shelvey has snatched a large piece of his set-piece responsibility. Richarlison a much better pick, along with the Choupo

  4. pelle9
    9 days, 17 hours ago

    Pick 1... ?

    a) silva
    b) sterling

    Tnks

    1. Albert_Luque
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 17 hours ago

      Silva most nailed if you have the cash.

  5. Gregg Wallace
    9 days, 17 hours ago

    So if Aguero is back what's the front 3? Sterling-Kun-Sané? Sterling-Kun-Jesus? Need to know wether I should invest in both Sané and Sterling

    1. Albert_Luque
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 17 hours ago

      No idea. The only person that knows is Pep. Even if aguero says hes back, will he start? No one that you've stated above is a nailed on, certain starter.

    2. shotgunnufc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 17 hours ago

      look at theirs minutes played so far when both were fit - sterling

      1. Gregg Wallace
        9 days, 16 hours ago

        Sterling for sure, but debating whether Sané as well

  6. Albert_Luque
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 days, 17 hours ago

    Blimey, this Aguero news throws a right spanner in the works. This is why Man City are such a frustrating fantasy football team, unparalleled wealth of attacking options but picking one of their players is like a weekly Russian Roulette. Makes you appreciate the certainty of starts that Lukaku offers.

  7. shotgunnufc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 days, 17 hours ago

    kun kane morata front 3 to have in a gws time?

  8. The Asset
    9 days, 16 hours ago

    Lets see if Kun gets through Friday night. Squeeze are playing down the Colston hall I fully expect to see him down the front belting out Cool for Cats....

  9. Misteak
    9 days, 16 hours ago

    KdB + Long > Sterling + Luiz (-4) ?

  10. Carroll-er coaster
    9 days, 15 hours ago

    Trying again:

    Lloris Elliot
    Alonso, Monreal, Jones, Lascelles, Mbemba
    Eriksen*, Silva, Jese*, Kante*, Carroll
    Kane, Lukaku, Wood

    1FT
    0,9 ITB

    A: Eriksen, Jese & Kante -> Hazard, March + 4,5 - 5,9 mid
    B: Eriksen, Jese & Kante -> Sane, Sterling & March (0,2 ITB)
    C: Other?

    1. nalassimi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 13 hours ago

      Hazard March for me

  11. nalassimi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 days, 13 hours ago

    First time posting. I would appreciate some feedback. I really dont know if I should use my wildcard or not. I have 412 points and trust in the team. I just think I need some chelsea coverage instead of Mkhi but it will be at the cost of losing some of other premium players like DDG and Jesus.

    MY team as it stands with 2.2 in the bank. I already transferred out Morata for Jesus.

    DDG - Elliot
    Dawson - Lejuene - Kolasniac - Cedric - Dunk
    Mkhi - Richarlsion - Choupo - Atsu - Carroll
    Lukaku Jesus Kane

    This is what Im thinking

    Elliot - Fabianski
    Jones - Davies - Clark - Ward - Dunk
    Hazard - Sterling - Richarlison - Chuopo - Carroll
    Lukaku - Kane - Vardy

    Cheers.

  12. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    9 days, 13 hours ago

    On WC, any obvious transfers right away? 1.2 ITB

    Foster, Eliott
    Alonso, Monreal, Davies, Mee, Rangel
    Alli, Coutinho, Silva, Brady, Romeu
    Lukaku, Jesus, Hemed

    Cheers!

    1. GreenShark1
      9 days, 13 hours ago

      I'd lose Rangel, Alli, Brady, Romeu and Hemed.

  13. poulteren
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 days, 4 hours ago

    Hi all,

    PLEASE please please help me put my mind to rest. Big wager on the line!

    I own Jesus upfront BUT do I:

    A.) Sterling, Silva, Hazard with Maguire at the back

    B.) Fabregas, Silva, Hazard with Stones at the back

    c.) swap out Jesus for Lukaku and have Fabregas, Silva and Stones at the back

    Thanks in advance!

    1. AD2110
      9 days, 3 hours ago

      A

      1. poulteren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 days, 3 hours ago

        thanks

  14. Scotty B
    8 days, 15 hours ago

    1 FT & 0 ITB

    Fabianski
    Bellerin Cedric Jones Alonso
    Salah Eriksen Ritchie
    Morata Kane Rooney

    Elliot Shaqiri Carroll Tuanzabe

    Really want a City but not Jesus as he is not certain to start.
    Should I go with Morata > Abraham and get a good mid in?