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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

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1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    D'you think Poch will keep faith in Llorente for the weekend after his hattrick and 2 assists tonight?

    1. LarryDuff
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      in my opinion regardless of how he plays Kane is still first choice

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        lol

    2. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Oh, yes! 😉

      1. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Cheers. Just did Kane -> Llorente for a hit before the inevitable price rise.

        1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          6 days, 12 hours ago

          😯 Aaargggh! 😆

          1. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            6 days, 12 hours ago

            😆

    3. ZeBestee
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Maybe playing him together with Kane. Kane should start.

  2. ZeBestee
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Regret not ditching Sane for Coutinho before the price changes.
    Have Salah and Sane currently. Do:

    1) Sane 》Coutinho
    2) Sane 》Sterling

    1. Chicken Bhuna FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      1

      1. ZeBestee
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Thanks. I will wait till Friday and make the move.

  3. Strchld
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Change that D.Silva play weeekend?

    1. Netley O'Lucas Ibeland
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Many think he's not injured at all

      1. Strchld
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Yep, would like to be "sure". Im i gonna let him go for a hit or keep.

  4. Scotty B
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    That's Sane on the bench Sunday then

    1. _sidney_will
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      He's played literally every game for City that he's been fit for, he's Peps fave

    2. Ode
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Are you actually serious?

      1. Scotty B
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Yeah he was awful as well Sunday and he's in the B team

        1. _sidney_will
          6 days, 12 hours ago

          With that theory do you think Jesus will be on the bench too? 3/4 of Sane Sterling Jesus Aguero are going to start on Sunday

  5. Mateja
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    From now to the end of season what do you think how much games CalvertLewin will start? in % answer 🙂

    1. Reinhold
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      65%

    2. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      %? I'm not Carol Vorderman.

      He'll start about 7.

    3. Kuntheman(c)-★Balegium★
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Don't rely on a 5.1 striker mate haha

      1. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Especially when they 'should' buy a striker in Jan.

      2. Mateja
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Well if he would start atleast 60% of games i would pick him and dont have headaches about 3rd striker 🙂

    4. GAMBIT
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      I'm 100% sure Big Sam will get a striker in Jan if that helps you any

      1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Yep. He is gonna buy Andy Carroll!!! 😆

        1. GAMBIT
          6 days, 12 hours ago

          Yikes. Might as well try to get Kevin Nolan out of retirement too.

          1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            6 days, 12 hours ago

            You haven't heard? 😉

          2. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            6 days, 12 hours ago

            England in waiting apparently.
            According to his chairman who is new to football ownership.
            Already marking himself down as King of the clowns imo.

            1. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              6 days, 12 hours ago

              Darn.
              *England manager*

              1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                6 days, 12 hours ago

                😀

                1. Dreams - Bolivia Giroud
                  6 days, 12 hours ago

                  Hello there senior player and manager. Looks like you fellas are having a nice time here.

                  1. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    6 days, 12 hours ago

                    Just chillin'
                    Captains lurking somewhere - think he's at the bar!

                    1. Dreams - Bolivia Giroud
                      6 days, 12 hours ago

                      He's always at the bar when he's posting here I reckon.

                      1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        6 days, 12 hours ago

                        😆

                      2. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        6 days, 12 hours ago

                        Well done on top score this week, edged the victory I reckon. 🙂

                      3. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        6 days, 12 hours ago

                        Yep. Bolivian Bandit!

                      4. Dreams - Bolivia Giroud
                        6 days, 12 hours ago

                        Got lucky with the Couti pick. I'm just relieved that I didn't fook up the midweek game with my terrible score.

    5. Athletico Timbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      They'll but someone in Jan and that'll be it.

  6. Reinhold
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    I've realized I have got to get Kane in for Jesus

    To fund that, either I go Vardy to a max 7.2 million forward, or Otamendi to a max 4.4 million defender.

    Suggestions as to what and whom?

    1. Chicken Bhuna FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Why would you be getting kane in right now.. bit silly. Stick with vardy

      1. Reinhold
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        Not really silly, is it? Next two fixtures are great. Beat Stoke 4-0 three times in a row, where he scored six. Great captaincy option imo

    2. Ode
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Kane & Spurs look bad, get him for the Dgw

  7. Fantasy Gold
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Seems a bit silly of Klopp to play his full allocation tonight considering the game on Sunday.

    An injury to one of Cout/Mané/Salah/Firmino would make the decision look a tad silly

    1. Kuntheman(c)-★Balegium★
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Not as silly as if he were to play a rotational squad and lose

      1. Klopptomist
        6 days, 12 hours ago

        This

    2. GAMBIT
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      We want to top the group to avoid Barcelona so they can't come to Anfield and tap up Coutinho

    3. Clump
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Disagree. Champs league qualification at stake.
      We could cope without 2 of the above at the weekend.

  8. Fantasy Gold
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    As an Alli owner, I’m not feeling too good that he’s playing tonight with mainly second string players.

    Time to ship him out if he is crap tonight I guess

    1. Chicken Bhuna FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Don't be silly. He's missed first few games of champions league and there's nothing like a goal from him tonight to get the momentum going again

    2. ZeBestee
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Yeah there are other better cheaper options. Alli has regressed a bit this season unfortunately

  9. Knuckles the one who Knocks
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    How many West Ham and Spurs players are people planning to get for the DGW?

    I am thinking Hart / Sanchez / Cresswell / Kane and one more

    1. Netley O'Lucas Ibeland
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      More than none and less than two 😆

    2. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Between 3 and 6.

    3. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      1 & 3.

    4. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Just Kane and a goalkeeper I think. 48 days between games, rotation will be fierce. Alli and Eriksen would have to show some serious form for me to even consider ditching the midfielders I have now.

      1. KingOfLuck
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        48 days should be enough for professionals

  10. COK3Y5MURF - Emre Canada
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Kane 100% blank this weekend

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Four goals

  11. John terrys dog -Bantu boy
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    New article
    Find it yourself I ain't a guide dog

    1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Woof.

  12. Daviek212
    6 days, 11 hours ago

    Which two would you pick for this weekend?

    Richarlison (bur)
    Ward (WAT)
    Naughton (WBA)

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      Bench ward

  13. LaCazettio
    6 days, 10 hours ago

    Sane & Jesus out for Hazard and Andre Gray?

  14. Whits
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 days, 21 hours ago

    Brady and Kolasinac to Coutinho and Femenia?

    A) YES
    B) NO

    Other defenders I have are Otamendi, Mee, Naughton and Mbemba.

    Thanks

  15. JoeSoap
    5 days, 17 hours ago

    Which 2 would you bench? assuming Moreno is fit.

    A. Moreno (EVERTON)
    B. Ward (WATFORD)
    C. Daniels (c palace)
    D, Duffy (hudders)
    E. Maguire (newc)