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What The Fixtures and Form Say – Gameweek 10 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 10’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I take the top six most popular captaincy options (according to the current FFScout Captain Poll) and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

Additionally, I have added a ‘goals conceded H/A’ column to take into account a respective fixtures defensive record. For example, Arsenal face Swansea at home this weekend, so for this we look at how many goals the Welsh side have shipped on their last four road trips. This will hopefully give a more balanced look at the fixture table and to give a potential insight on how certain teams are shaping up home/away.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away points per game (PPG) but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The home and away PPG will take into account the last four Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.

Last year’s season review can be found via this link.

Success will be defined as:

  • Explosive = 10+ points
  • Success = 7-9 points
  • Average = 4-6 points
  • Fail = no attacking returns

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 10’s results…..

Form

RankPlayerTotal PPGGoalsAssistsH-PPGA-PPG
1.Aguero11.75637.2510*
2.Kane11615.510
3.Coutinho7212.5**8.3*
4.Richarlison6.75233.56.25
5.Sanchez6134*5*
6.Salah4.75206.254.25

*Indicates 3 available games

** Indicates 2 available games

Fixtures

RankPlayerFixtureGoals Conceded TotalGoals conceded H/ABig chances concededShots in the box concededTotal
1.RicharlisonStoke (H)141163970
2.AgueroWest Brom (A)6363853
3KaneManchester United (A)2082737
4.5CoutinhoHuddersfield (H)7432236
4.5SalahHuddersfield (H)7432236
6.SanchezSwansea (H)5152031

Results

RankPlayerFormFixtureTotal
1.Aguero123
2.5Richarlison415
2.5Kane235
4.Coutinho34.57.5
5.Salah64.510.5
6.Sanchez5611

Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Sergio Aguero is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method.

The Argentine tops the form table and has six goals and three assists in his last four appearances, giving him a total PPG of 11.75. He has an impressive away PPG of 10, although this is only from three available games’ worth of data.

It is also worth pointing out that a start this weekend away to West Brom is far from certain, as he played the full 120 minutes in the league cup against Wolverhampton midweek and City travel to Napoli next week in the Champions League.

Should he start the Baggies backline should be obliging, given they have conceded six times and allowed opponents 38 shots in the box in the last four Gameweeks.  While Tony Pulis’ troops only conceded three times in their four home games, these  were on paper easy ties (WAT, WHM, STO, BOU),  so it could be argued that they haven’t come across a potent attacking force in the shape of Pep’s men thus far. In addition, the Baggies were humbled 4-0 by the Sky Blues in this fixture last season.

Richarlison is the surprise package that finishes joint second this week and offers up a classic form vs fixture debate. The Hornets star only finishes fourth in the form table despite registering an impressive 6.75 PPG with two goals and three assists in the last four Gameweeks. His 3.5 home PPG is a slight concern for FPL managers. However, this week he faces a Stoke side that have shipped eight goals in their last four games and a staggering 12 goals in their last quartet of road trips – although it must be pointed out that seven of these were against Manchester City. The Potters have also conceded 39 shots in the box in the last four games and the Brazilian offers a strong captaincy option this week according to these results.

Clean sheet potential table

RankTeam
1.Man City
2.Arsenal
3.Manchester United
4.Tottenham
5.Chelsea

 

75 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Thanks for this - if he starts there's goals...but its the 'if' that's a worry.

    1. Freddo
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Points to Kane being pretty much better than Salah who's doing well in the polls.

      Maybe it's time to trust him for being the best striker in the league and capable of scoring against anyone at any time.

  2. Delhidynamo
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Thanks for rebooting this YMA,

    Richarlison captain could be bit of a stretch though..

  3. Cok3y5murf
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Don't think the Captaincy Poll's top 6 should be the only options considered.

    A lot of people here vote for the player they're going to captain based on who they own, not the player they think is the best captain, which defeats the entire purpose of the poll.

    Surely, Sane is more likely to start than Aguero this week, and he's got the form, so I think he should be among the picks to be analyzed.

    1. Agree. Good sense all round.

    2. Samurai Blue
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Agree.

    3. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      I agree to a point, the FFS captain poll does provide probably the best indicator of success it must be said. I tried before including the top 10 but it gets too messy. Also I wrote this before the city game yesterday and was only published today barring any city injuries

  4. Richarlison?

    Now I have seen everything.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      That's what the indicators are saying my friend

  5. QPRUTD
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Thanks for this.
    What about Morata (c) at BOU. Dont see him mentioned anywhere in the article

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      At the time of writing, he wasn't in the top 6 of the captain poll

  6. Johqvist
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Glad to have you back whit these articles, YMA! 🙂

    1. Johqvist
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      With...

  7. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Why are we expecting Kun to start?
    90 and 120 mins in 3 days.
    Jesus has had his rest plus subbed off early yesterday.
    Surely Kun will be rested for Napoli with Jesus starting against Wba.

    1. Freddo
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Have you not learned anything from the last 7 days?

      There's no such thing as surely with Pep.

      1. Freddo
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        Can I just flip that around? Aguero has played 210 mins in the last 4 weeks, he's probably as fresh as any of them.

    2. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      It's for the FPL manager to decide on rotation issues 🙂

  8. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Yessssss YMA is back !!!!

  9. ktk_interista
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    We have missed your articles YMA. Always very helpful in deciding the best captain. Welcome back.

  10. FC Lackless [BALEGIUM]
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Welcome back YMA!

  11. Pompel
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Great to have this article back, YMA!
    The Richarlison pick sure to generate some controversy

  12. tokara
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    miss your article

    easily best contributor for me

  13. Mattias
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Thanks YMA, I have missed these.

    David Silva is my current choice for captaincy, and it would be interesting to see where he fits into your table. 4 assists and 1 goal in the last 6 with 2 double point hauls. He was rested last night so hopefully will be supplying the service to whoever Pep plays up top at the Hawthorns. Add to that he also sits on Jontys goals imminent table..

    1. Freddo
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Great shout actually, would take huge coconuts though.

    2. WHY ALWAYS MESUT?
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      I switched from Kun to Silva too. Just because I'm more confident of him starting the game.

    3. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      He would finish between Kane and Coutinho

  14. I Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Something isn't quite right when United away is seen as a better fixture than Huddersfield at home.

    Also how is it possible for Stoke to have a higher Goals Conceded Total than Goals Conceded H/A?

    1. Freddo
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Liverpool at home.

      Liverpool 1-0 Palace
      Liverpool 4-0 Arsenal
      Liverpool 1-1 Burnley
      Liverpool 0-0 United

      Why do we assume Liverpool are the rampaging force that they were last year?

      The Arsenal game was more about their collapse than Liverpool being good, they've struggled in the rest.

      1. Freddo
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        They badly miss Mane and Lallana.

        1. Get up ya bum
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 8 days ago

          This is very true

      2. Ramboros
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        Liverpool were running over Palace, Burnley and United. They should've scored 6-7 goals in total over those matches. It's just about finishing and luck really.

        1. Freddo
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 8 days ago

          Should but didn't, unfortunately that's no good for fantasy.

      3. Get up ya bum
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        Those palace and burnley results follow last seasons theme perfectly

        1. Freddo
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 8 days ago

          Huddersfield just stopped thr mighty Lukaku, don't think they should be underestimated.

          These are all cup finals for them.

          1. Get up ya bum
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 8 days ago

            Big fan of this hudds team and Wagner. I think it will be a high scoring win for Liverpool though. Hudds will try to beat Liverpool at their own game.

            1. Freddo
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 8 days ago

              No one knows Klopp better than Wagner.

              1. Get up ya bum
                • 15 Years
                7 years, 8 days ago

                True

    2. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      So stoke have conceded 8 goals in their last 4 games but in their last 4 away games, conceded 12.

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        I make it 14 and 11.

  15. Henryyy
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Great post mate! Nice to see it back again!

  16. livingbeetroot
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    A great read. Thank you for your efforts, it’s helped me make up my mind.

  17. skodaole2
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Had Richarlison captain from the beginning of the week. Hopefully most will go with Lukaku and MCI attackers. Chris Wood's injury worries me a bit, want to keep him but if he wont play my first sub will be Cork's 1 pr 2 pointer. Any news?

    1. Get up ya bum
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Hasn't trained. Wait for pressers

  18. Inverted into midfield
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Tricky choice of who to swap for Mo Salah

    A. the returning Hazard or
    B the tired Sterling

    Any thoughts?

  19. Robben Mee Blind
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Thanks YMA. Have missed these articles. Don't think I'm any the wiser about who I'm going to captain though 🙂

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      I'm going Richarlison 😯

      1. Robben Mee Blind
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        Might be tempted if I had him. Was set on getting him in for Ramsey but Sicknote's haul has persuaded me to keep him a while longer, at least until after Swansea

  20. El Lobito 10
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    I've missed this article, one of my favourites from last season. Thanks for a good write up. Great to have you back YMA!

  21. rjcv177
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    New article. Sorry.

    Cheers guys.
    Some help for a maverick player please.

    A) haz & ritchie TO coutinho & richarlison (-4, and keep sterling)
    B) davies, sterling, ritchie TO dunk, cout, richarlison (-8, keep haz and bench dunk)

    Thkx in advance

  22. André94PT
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Great to have this back, Charlie 🙂

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      People don't know my real name Andre! Haha cheers bud

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        Link probably needs updating . It points to a team managed by someone called Alan rather than to the team in the Veterans League.

  23. CAPTAIN BLACKLIST
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Awesome to have this back YMA! A highlight of last season it served me well - putting this season's non-performance down to this article not being in place - the only way is up now with it back in situ!

  24. DAZZ
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    I am the only one in my mini league with Aguero, as he is such a differential, im taking a gamble and giving him the armband, will probably give Salah VC

  25. Dreams
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Good to have you back Yma. The last season was a mixed bag with the likes of Siggy and Kane not delivering when most expected to. Hoping to get more lucky this season.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Please don't mention siggy 😉

  26. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Coutinho has played 3 away games, so his A-PPG form should be 8.3* (not 7.5**).

  27. EL_FENOMENO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    Hazard to Salah, should i go for it ?

    1. L S P
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      no

  28. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    In Fixtures, Stoke have conceded 14 goals (not 8) in their last 4 and 11 (not 12) in their last 4 aways, so Richarlison's total should be 70.

    These do not affect any of the positions in your tables, but may slightly strengthen Richarlison's fixture potential.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      Changed to reflect this, thanks. Had a limited window at work to get this sent in!

  29. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    4 matches does not seem very much to base reliable forecasts on.

    If it was based on 6 games instead then Form would become:
    1. Kane (total PPG 9.8)
    2. Aguero (8.3)
    3. Coutinho (6.0, only 5 games)
    4. Richarlison (5.3)
    5. Salah (5.0)
    6. Sanchez (4.5)

    Assuming that the order for Fixtures would not change (I haven't checked this, but it seems quite likely), the Results would then be:
    1.5. Aguero 2+2=4
    1.5. Kane 1+3=4
    3. Richarlison 4+1=5
    4. Coutinho 3+4.5=7.5
    5. Salah 5+4.5=9.5
    6.Sanchez 6+6=12

    So, based on 6 games rather than 4, Kane would move up to joint 1st and Richarlison would drop to 3rd.

    It would be nice if Form could also be adjusted for the strength of the opposition faced in the 4 or 6 games on which Form is based - but that would of course be a lot more difficult to calculate.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 8 days ago

      I think the problem with changing form to 6 fixtures is that one result can skew the results somewhat. One haul for e.g. in an 'easy' fixture could potentially mean the difference between finishing last and finishing a lot higher up. Whilst I agree with you, I think that 4 represents a more concise look at immediate form

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 8 days ago

        My suggestion of adjusting Form according to the strength of the opposition would also help to reduce the effect of spikes arising from particularly easy or difficult fixtures.

  30. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 8 days ago

    But doesn't one result out of four skew the results more than one in six?
    The effect might only skew the results for four GWs rather than for six, but it skews them by a greater amount.
    That's why I like to look at more than just four.

    The same goes for when I choose to play my wildcard - I feel that I need to have at least six GWs of information before I can feel reasonably confident about players' form.
    I jumped the gun slightly this season and played it for GW5, but it might have been better to have waited another three game-weeks for the second international break as I had originally intended.

    I suppose another idea might be to taper the results, like in the Hall of Fame, e.g. 100% for the most recent GW, 90% for the previous one and so on. This would capture recent changes in form, whilst also evening out the effects of spikes over a longer period.