Rankings have now been updated and Scout Picks are up if you refresh your screen. There’s no major risks this week although I’ve renewed my fetish for all things Bolton with the usual average results likely. Read on for my usual flimsy justification of this week’s eleven…
Okay lets start at the back and work forward as we go.
I like the look of West Ham this week. They’re inconsistent but Birmingham’s current away form is pretty dire – four defeats in the last five with just two goals scored, plus they’re missing their leading scorer and creative force, Kapo. West Ham look a good bet then having won three of the last five at home. This could be a clean sheet and a couple of goals for the Hammers then with Green and Upson the best defensive bets – Ljungberg the most likely attacking threat with the strikers still struggling for fitness and goals. I’ve gone for Green as my keeper then, with FPL bonus points and saves always an additional factor.
Everton are another home side who look strong this week. Reading’s defence has conceded more away goals than any other side. They’re without Ingimarsson at Everton and have lost the last six games. Everton meanwhile are on excellent run of form. On paper then, this is a home banker with a clean sheet also on the cards. Cahill would normally be a prime target in midfield but, with still some doubt over whether he’ll be refreshed enough to play after his appearance for Australia in midweek, I’ve opted for the recently unspectacular but dependable Arteta for one of my midfield slots with Lescott once again in my defence. Up front meanwhile, Johnson also ranks highly this week.
United conceded at Spurs last weekend and will be without Evra for the Manchester Derby. Regardless, they still look a good bet for a clean sheet against a City side who are struggling for goals. The Benjani debut could be a factor, as could the fact that this will be an emotive Derby match. Despite that, I still see Ferdinand and Vidic as essential given United’s defensive record. I’ve gone with Ferdinand this time, with Vidic now sitting on the suspension tightrope with four yellows. Vidic will more than likely get that goal I’ve been predicting now I’ve omitted him after backing him for so long.
I’m playing safe again with the third defensive slot and opting for Chelsea’s Alex once more. Liverpool are still not creating chances and without Torres they’ll have their work cut out to breach a solid Chelsea back line boosted by the return of Carvalho. Alex keeps his place in the picks again then. I see Chelsea edging this by a narrow margin with Anelka likely to be the deciding factor against his former club. He ranks highly amongst the forwards then but doesn’t quite make the picks.
Time to take a slight risk with my final defensive pick. I’ve opted for Bolton’s Cahill. I’m expecting Megson’s side to get a couple at home to Portsmouth. Bolton’s home form is very strong – they’ve conceded just three in the last five. Portsmouth meanwhile have seen their once stellar away form, drop. Defoe is well fancied to score but he has scored just one away goal from nine in total away from home while at Spurs. Portsmouth have lost their last two away from home without scoring while Bolton have kept three clean sheets in the last four home games. That appears to point to a strong chance of a shutout for Megson’s men here. Cahill has picked up some FPL bonus points and is always a threat from set-pieces which will always be prominent for Bolton.
Talking of Bolton set-pieces, I’ve opted for Taylor in midfield again. Taylor has scored in this fixture on the last two occasions. Can he get the hat-trick in Bolton colours? Well its funny how those kind of records can play a part. Taylor missed a penalty last weekend but is set to keep the spot-kick duties. I put him in my picks a fortnight ago and I’m bringing him back this weekend. He’ll be looking to prove a point to Harry and that could be a powerful incentive for him to put in an influential performance.
There should be goals for Arsenal at the Emirates. Blackburn look in trouble at Arsenal. Normally, away from home, you’d have confidence in Hughes’ team. They’ve certainly never struggled for goals with Santa Cruz in particular, enjoying good returns on his travels. however, Rovers have injury concerns and key players out through suspension. With Samba suspended, Nelson out and Ooijer a doubt, there appears to be real fragility in place. Not a week when you want to come up against Adebayor.
Yet again then, the Arsenal striker is impossible to ignore. In midfield Fabregas also remains in the picks having bucked his ideas up in the last two games with a pair of assists and a goal. The pair take spots in the side then, while Gallas only misses out in my picks due to the “two players per club” rule I impose on myself. The Arsenal defence has conceded just two goals in the last five at home though so a clean sheet against a weakened Rovers looks on the cards.
With Arteta already in place, the final midfield slot has to go to Ronaldo. Yes he had an off week at Spurs but he’s likely to be pushed up with Tevez against City with Rooney suspended. The odds on another fruitless week look long then and once again it will be a brave fantasy manager who looks beyond him for a captain. More on that in a bit.
I’ve already mentioned Adebayor as the obvious pick up front. Alongside him though I’ve gone for Sunderland’s Jones. He’s inconsistent over the season but not at home. This is a must-win high pressure game for Keane’s men who are very strong at home and I expect Jones to step up again for this one with an assist and bonus points likely at least. Wigan should concede with skipper Melchiot likely to be absent to force Bruce into a reshuffle of his back four. My only concern with Jones is fatigue – he seems certain to play but only arrived back in the UK today after playing for Trinidad and Tobago on Wednesday. I’m tempted to look elsewhere on that basis but, by sticking to my two players per club rule, that would leave me picking Anelka or a Spurs forward. My gut feeling is to stick with Jones, but be aware, I’m taking a risk here.
Outside of the picks, Spurs players are the prime targets. They take on Derby but then Tottenham’s recent away form isn’t that strong with just three goals in the last five trips. That along with the fact that Spurs players miss a fixture in the next FPL gameweek, is enough for me to just overlook the likes of Jenas, Berbatov and Keane. All three are ranked just outside the picks however and along with Hutton in defence and Cerny in goal, present excellent returns this week. Without Woodgate and King however, I can just see Derby nicking a goal here.
Elsewhere, Villa look a decent bet for a clean sheet given Newcastle’s recent lack of goals. Laursen is the obvious target although there is a slight doubt over his fitness having withdrawn from the Danish squad in midweek. Davies is also a minor injury doubt so Mellberg and Carson in goal appear to present the best options. Villa’s attack will be weakened by the likely absence of Agbonlahor. Young still ranks this week but I fancy this game to be a narrow win for Villa or possibly a low scoring draw.
The best mid-range or cheap options appear to be presented by Wigan’s Taylor at Sunderland, Wheater at home to Fulham and Bullard in the same game. Taylor could be employed at full-back which will reduce his potential returns but such is his importance at set-pieces, there could be points here. I don’t expect a clean sheet from him though.
Up front Boro’s Alves is also worth considering if you need to gamble – he could promise big returns but may also miss out on his debut or fail to make an impact due to lack of match fitness. Elsewhere, Sunderland’s Prica and West Ham’s Cole appear to offer the best value outside of Jones this week, although neither are certain of starts.
Back to the issue of the FPL captain then. Outside of Ronaldo, Adebayor again looks more than just a little bit tasty and he is the best bet if you need to vary your captain to bridge a mini-league gap. Fabregas and Arteta from my picks are far more risky but offer promise given the fixtures.
That’s about it. Over to you lot for the usual lively discussion…
