In fantasy terms Cesc Fabregas has gone ominously quiet again. In the last three games he’s registered just one assist and a single FPL bonus point. His display against Milan and Birmingham showed promise but he continues to struggle to find the free-scoring form he enjoyed earlier in the season.
He’s hit just one goal in the last 17 games in all competitions. Oddly however, his efforts on goal haven’t reduced – he had 40 goal attempts in those last 17 games, while he had 41 shots in the 16 games that preceded that in which he scored 11 goals.
Against Birmingham, Fabregas registered his highest number of goal attempts of the season with 7 shots, 4 of which were on target. Clearly then, Fabregas still shows goalscoring intent but it appears Arsenal’s tactics seem to have restricted his runs into the box that brought him the early season flurry of goals.
So is he worth perservering with despite the temptation of Gerrard’s double gameweek?
In the Fantasy League games Fabregas is very reasonably priced but managers will likely have their heads turned by the form of Villa’s Young in particular, while Bentley, Cahill, Downing and Petrov certainly offer good alternatives for a lower price. In the popular Daily Telegraph game meanwhile, Fabregas remains second only to Ronaldo for midfield selections but again Young, Bentley and Petrov are looking tempting as the Arsenal man’s returns continue to falter.
In the FPL game his bonus points offer some return, although a run of just one point in the last five is alarming. Strangely however, his price tag in that game continues to rise. It currently stands at 10.6 having increased in gameweek 26 from 10.5. Those managers who got on Fabregas early would therefore stand to lose a significant amount of cash should they trade him and live to regret it.
Having said that, there’s never been a better time to trade. Gerrard presents a worthy alternative on 10.7 and his double gameweek as Liverpool face Bolton and West Ham, is sure to see Fabregas’ stock fall this week. The Arsenal man is already sitting second on the “players out” stat in the FPL game for this current gameweek after just 24-hours.
Fixture wise things look okay for Arsenal and Fabregas in March. Villa at home, Wigan away and Boro at home come next. However, then things get nasty – Arsenal visit Chelsea and Bolton away before they take on Liverpool at home and United at Old Trafford. That’s three of the likely top four in the space of four fixtures.
On paper that run looks tough for Fabregas and a good time to get rid. However, in the corresponding games against Chelsea, United and Liverpool this season, he hit two goals, an assist and 8 FPL bonus points. In the Premiership this season, Fabregas is clearly a big game player.
Here’s another factor to consider though – Fabregas currently sits on 8 bookings – that means he has to get to April 13 without gaining two more domestic bookings – that’s 7 Premiership matches in all. Arsenal face United on that Sunday. If he picks up his tenth booking in that game or before he’ll face a two-match ban. That would be a crucial loss for the season run-in.
Right now then, if you’re looking to get Gerrard in for the double gameweek, trading Fabregas to generate the cash looks a worthy move. If you’ve already got Gerrard sitting pretty in your lineup, then it appears to be worth holding tight until the Boro game is out of the way, unless your heart is set on the likes of Bentley, Petrov or Downing to free up the cash for other areas of your squad. By the time the Boro game is done and dusted we’ll have more clues on Fabregas’ form and he could also be hovering on 9 bookings. One way or another, that should help reach a conclusion of the future of Fabregas in your squad.
It’s yet another tough decision so I’ve added a new poll tonight to gather some further opinion on this – so get voting.