Okay, the clock’s ticking on your fantasy lineup. It’s last minute tinker/panic time. How about some statistics to reinforce your current thinking?
Don’t get worried. I’m not going to hit you with chi-squared tests and the like. Also, I should point out that the analysis you are about to receive is purely for the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, although the principles can be applied to any game you happen to be playing.
First, let’s state the obvious – in order to identify potential high point scorers this coming season, the logical place to start is with the high point scorers from last season. However, a far better ranking method to use is Points Per Game (PPG). You can find this stat in the drop-down menu of the Transfers page on the FPL website. Furthermore, I believe it is important to make sure the player’s point scoring ability is consistent and not just based on a handful of matches. I’ve dealt with this by identifying players who have scored at least 4 PPG in each of the last two seasons. And here they are …
| ID | 200708 | 200809 | Total |
| MDGerrard | 5.9 | 7.0 | 6.4 |
| MDLampard | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| FWTorres | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| MDFabregas | 6.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| FWAdebayor | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| DFVidic | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| FWVan Persie | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| DFLescott | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| FWRooney | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| GKCech | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| MDCahill | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| MDYoung A | 5.2 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| DFAlex | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| FWBerbatov | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| GKVan der Sar | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| MDBarry | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| GKAlmunia | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| GKReina | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| MDCole J | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| FWCarew | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| FWAgbonlahor | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| DFG Johnson | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| FWDefoe | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| GKHoward | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| DFCole A | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| DFTerry | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
We can consider these players as the consistent high point scorers, I label them the ‘Fantasy Rocks’. These guys will not come cheap but using them to build the ‘core’ of your team is an obvious starting strategy. Hey, it’s not like stats have ever let us down before ;-).
There are no massive surprises at the very top of the rankings. The two remaining players in the ‘Holy Trinity’ – Gerrard and Lampard, head the list. The presence of Fabregas in third is a surprise perhaps, helped by his impressive haul in the 2007/08 season. Torres and Adebayor lead the strikers, although Berbatov’s PPG, despite an indifferent season last term, is worth noting. He looks likely to push up the table with a 5.0+ PPG this season, if Ferguson is true to his word and hands a more out-and-out strikers role.
In defence it’s all about Vidic and you wouldn’t question his ability to continue a 5.0 PPG this season. Lescott has also been consistent, although a possible move to City could skew his output this season. It’s interesting that Alex out performs the likes of Cole, Terry and Carvalho over the two terms, although he looks a major risk for our fantasy lineups if Carvalho keeps safe from harm. What’s perhaps more interesting is that Glen Johnson figures so highly. In fact, if you take his output and put him in the Liverpool defence over the past two seasons you would see a PPG of 4.9 in 2007/08 and 5.5 last season. That would rank him as the top defender, above Vidic, over the past two seasons.
Plenty to digest then and more fuel for last minute discussion and tinkering. Expect lots more stat-driven articles from me throughout the season.