This week’s Scout Debate attempts to tackle the issue of spending points on transfers in the Fantasy Premier League game. Some people regimentally stick to one transfer per week, some can be trigger happy, whilst others indulge every now and again. The site contributors will now share their own personal opinions and thought-processes to give you, the reader, another perspective to consider when lining up a points hit in the FPL…

Akers: “This season I’ve become very frugal with my transfers. I haven’t taken any point hits so far (or used my wildcard), and there’s not been much temptation to tell the truth. That’s not to say I think my squad is the bee’s knees, but I’ve been lucky with injuries and week-to-week I’m happy with it. I’d love to get certain players in, but my philosophy is that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

I have myself pegged as someone that makes perennially mediocre transfers, so by reducing the amount I make the less damage I can do. This seems a very pessimistic and negative policy, but one thing I’ve learnt in my fantasy career is that the regret of making a bad transfer is worse than the regret of not making a good one. Yet again, a rather strange thing to say perhaps and based largely on factors other than scoring points, but that honestly plays a part in my decision making so it’d be wrong to pretend otherwise.

That said, I’m almost certainly going to be taking a few point hits this season (partly to test the waters and see if my decision making has improved), but I’m trying to make as few, or even none, until after I’ve used my wildcard. I’m trying out a tactic of only making one transfer a week until I hate my squad, and then I can start over and a few point hits here and there just to take advantage of double gameweeks.

If there isn’t a double gameweek in sight and I’m contemplating a four point hit, I ask myself the following questions: Will I struggle to field 11 players next week? Does my squad have injuries/suspensions? If the answers are no, then I decide my single transfer and move on.”

Andy: “Points hits huh? To be honest, on past history you would assume that I didn’t mind spending points if the mood was right, and to a certain extent I probably wouldn’t hesitate to fork out a few points every now and then. But, once again, with the introduction of the new two free transfers rule I feel the need to capitalise much less. As of yet I haven’t spent any, and will have another two free trades next gameweek (pending any disastrous injuries following me writing this forcing my hand this week), which should be more than enough I hope.

Last year i spent 64 points in the first half of the season and did average (not bad at all, but nothing stellar), from Christmas onwards I spent 40 points and pretty much moved up the overall rankings every week. So my personal statistics seem to say that when I am more cautious in the transfer department I end up more productive.

We’ve heard Akers previously say “if in doubt, sit it out”, and I can certainly see the logic there – but I think in the end I will spend a few of my fantasy pennies down the line, and with little to no regret. As Mark has intimated, if you are confident in your own fantasy ability, then why not spend a few points and back yourself to come out on top?

In the end though, points or no points – you still need to choose the right trades, a duff switch is still that whether you hand over your change or not.”

greek fan: “My transfer choices successes are seldom or at least my transfers are rarely fruitful from the first gameweek. Thus, I had always fostered a hesitation, if not repulsion, against point hits. One flop a week is better than two or three, I think. Last season I only got three or four hits, when I felt I had to. One of them was a 8 points hit, when I decided I could not go on without Lampard anymore, nor miss a string of promising fixtures for him. That had paid off really well both in the short and long term and I never regretted it. However I am still reluctant when it comes to multiple transfers. Perhaps I am just not brave enough and certainly I admire people who regularly make profiting double transfers, i.e. Mark.

I prefer planning ahead and trying to avoid penalties. A big example is this week, when I felt that my squad was not what I really wanted it to be. Instead of making three transfers that could have improved it, I opted for a rather premature wildcard. I don’t expect my post-wildcard squad to hit the week’s higher score either, but I can plan my transfers for the next 7-8 weeks on a more rational basis now. I know that statistics can’t talk about the quality of transfer picks, but I would like to see what Superior Being’s database has to tell about the effectiveness of point hits.”

Mark: “My approach to transfers in the Fantasy Premier League game change dramatically in the New Year. Prior to this I’d been cautious, stuck to my one transfer per week and kept some of my urges and hunches at bay. To be fair, this conservative strategy had worked okay for me in previous seasons, however, as soon as I started “gambling” points by making two or more transfers, my weekly points tally improved and I ended the season with a top 300 finish. Based on last season, I would say 60% of my extra weekly transfers came off and when they did, the points gained more than made up for the 4 points lost when my gambles flopped. In addition, when you consider that, without Ronaldo, FPL captain selection now involves backing hunches more than ever, gambling those 4 points can often unlock the door to a big points haul. Of course, you have to make the right decisions but then that’s what Fantasy Football is all about.”

SIR PAULOS: “Far as I remember, did the overall winner of last year’s FPL not make a good number of points-hit transfers? I recall reading a post saying as much, whereas the runner-up made either little or none. Right there, you have a perfect illustration that there is no definitive way to play this game.

To make a large number of points-hit transfers and finish top of the pile clearly illustrates there is a tactical way to make ‘em and succeed at this game. That’s the perfect counter-argument to those that say it’s a result of poor planning or whatnot; if done correctly, clearly it is very good planning. But if done badly, ie- in a panic, it will undoubtedly prove costly.

My fantasy footy experiences are mainly in other games; I only started playing FPL in the last month of last season, so I have yet to completely settle on an overall strategy that I’m happy-or successful- with. Coincidentally, I’ve taken my first 4 point-hit this week, and as the extra transfer is for the long-term, I’m completely unfazed by it.

There’s a fine art to playing a waiting game with your squad picks or cutting your losses when things aint going too well, and essentially it’s only something experience can teach.

So from a purely personal point of view, I am quite prepared to take the points hits while refining my technique.”

SUPERIOR BEING: “Last season I produced some stats in order to analyse whether or not it is worth taking a point hit. Unfortunately, the results were inconclusive. For the purpose of this article I have revisited the stats and I’m glad I did – the results are much more conclusive this season…

I took the point histories of the 512 teams in the Fantasy Football Scout Cup up to and including Gameweek 5. Then I classified them as one of three categories: a) averaging 0 – 0.4999 hits per week (i.e. generally not taking the hit), b) 0.5 – 0.9999 hits per week & c) 1+ hits per week. For each category I then averaged each team’s total points as at the end of Gameweek 5 (minus the effect of the point hits – obviously). The results were as follows: a) 273, b) 255 & c) 241.

This clearly shows the less hits you make the better. I think the reason for this is the introduction of the ‘carry-over’ transfer where you get 2 free transfers if you don’t make a transfer in the previous week. These act as mini wildcards and minimise the need for taking hits. Hence point hits are even more costly this season.

In the real world it will be difficult to go all season without taking a hit though. There will be some weeks where eleven players cannot be fielded due to injuries and suspensions. I think this is the only time to take a point hit, especially if the player has a forthcoming double gameweek. That way you’ll usually get to grab at least an extra 2 points thus halving the cost of the transfer”

Thanks to Sparky for suggesting the subject of discussion this week. If you’d like to suggest next weeks then you can do so by emailing me at akers@fantasyfootballscout.co.uk. Over to you…