Christmas Eve and while one Santa prepares his sacks and reindeer, another wonders if he’s going to get a game against Stoke. Funny how these days it’s the latter that really concerns me. It’s called getting old apparently.
Enough of this sentimental rubbish. Well almost. Firstly it’s time for me to wish you all a very Happy Christmas. Now that’s out of they way, let’s get on with my Picks for the Boxing Day fixtures…
The selection of Shay Given in goal is perhaps a curious one, although it must be said, yet again I’m hardly spoilt for choice in defensive areas. City have injuries at the back and, given stats and form, are likely to concede. Having said that, Stoke are not an attacking side away from home and boast just 2 goals in their last 5 trips. That bodes well for a City side that may well be less cavalier under Mancini. If Stoke do feel in the mood, Given is also an excellent bet for save points even if a clean sheet doesn’t come his way.
In front of the City keeper I have the United and Chelsea defences represented by their usual candidates – Ashley Cole and Patrice Evra. Cole goes to Birmingham where he and his team-mates will surely face a thorough examination. I see a tight game here but I expect Ancelotti’s side to edge it and a clean sheet and some attacking points for Cole are certainly not out of the question. As usual, Ivanovic provides the cheaper option if your budget is tight. He should be a starter at right-back once again.
As for Evra, he travels to Hull City with Rafael and hopefully Brown or Vidic alongside him in the United back four. That could make all the difference and may well be enough to keep Phil Brown’s side at bay. Hull do have strong home form however so this, like all defensive selections this season, is on shaky ground when it comes to a clean sheet.
Glen Johnson perhaps has a better chance of earning some defensive returns against Wolves at Anfield, although he too is selected for his attacking threat. I see another tight, nervy affair for Rafa’s men here, with Wolves fighting all the way to maintain their current run of form.
Once again Paul Scharner earns a start in the Scout Picks, with Wigan hosting a goal-shy Blackburn on Boxing Day. Scharner is set to play slightly deeper in the midfield as a result of the injury to Diame, as Martinez considers the switch to 4-4-2. Defensive points are on the cards here though, with Blackburn really struggling for goals of late. Three strikes in the last 5 away games tells the tale and offers every opportunity for a Wigan cleanie.
In midfield I’ve ignored the popular Arsenal and Villa players in their head-to-head clash at the Emirates. Guess what? I’ve got this down as another tight game with a dreaded 1-1 scoreline looking the favourite result for me. Fabregas remains a doubt, Arshavin and Milner won’t get the same kind of freedom to express their attacking instincts as they’ve enjoyed in recent weeks; so I’ve made the decision to look elsewhere.
Liverpool’s Gerrard just edges Lampard as my major purchase in midfield. I’m far from confident in Gerrard’s fitness right now, plus his role in the Liverpool lineup is not yet clear given the suspension to Mascherano and the lack of fitness being displayed by Aquilani. Even so, I see Liverpool eventually prevailing against Wolves by a one or two goal margin. Gerrard’s influence will surely be key and a spot-kick or set-piece goal could be the difference.
Gerrard’s fellow midfielders are certainly more risky. Burnley’s Chris Eagles has a decent looking home game with Bolton – a defence which never keeps clean sheets. We should see goals here then, probably for both sides given the injuries to Burnley’s backline. Eagles has been Owen Coyle’s main creative force in recent weeks, so much so that he has hoovered up bonus points without actually contributing goals or assists. I see that stat changing on Boxing Day however.
The other two selections come from the same match – a game which promises goals for me. Sunderland have not been in form of late but did record three goals at City last time out. Similarly Everton have been suffering badly but did create a lot of chances against Birmingham in their 1-1 draw. For some reason I see three or four goals in the Stadium of Light encounter between these two sides; Andy Reid and Tim Cahill are my picks to be the influential figures with assists and goals shared amongst them.
Up front I’ve taken no risks at all. Drogba plays his last game before his departure for the African Cup of Nations and he will lead the Chelsea attack against a Birmingham defence that could be without both Roger Johnson and Liam Ridgewell. Drogba’s pace and power will likely be the difference yet again; returns should be on the cards after a blank at West Ham last time out.
Wayne Rooney partners the Chelsea man. United may well need at least two goals to see off Phil Brown’s outfit at the KC Stadium and Rooney will surely be the chief architect behind those strikes. Spot-kick duties could also be vital agian for the United striker.
My bench holds some decent alternatives with Burnley’s Alexander always a good bet as a defensive signing – purely on his strike rate from penalties. Again, I’m not seeing a cleanie for Owen Coyle’s men but Alexander is always worth a punt in his midfield role. Elsewhere you can look to Blackburn’s Samba if you’re backing another 0-0 for Rovers, while the West Ham vs Portsmouth game could be another with a distinct lack of goals on show. Upson and Kaboul would be your best options here, although I’m pretty convinced we will see two or three goals at Upton Park.
Talking of West Ham, I’ve opted for Jack Collison as my midfield bench pick. He’s been given licence to get forward in Zola’s 4-5-1 formation and that should continue on Boxing Day. He’s a decent cheap option with strong fixtures to follow after this gameweek. Fulham’s Murphy, Dempsey and Duff were all close to being included. Any of those look good options with Fulham showing excellent form going into the Christmas period. Spurs are also in good shape though, particularly at the back where Dawson has been dominant. I’m not convinced that we’ll see too many goals in this game then.
Bolton’s Klasnic is my chosen option up front, with Bolton taking on a Burnley defence nursing injuries to both Carlisle and Caldwell. There should be goals in this one, with both sides enjoying attacking returns. Other options that look strong this week include Wigan’s Rodallega and of course Torres against Wolves. I still have my doubts on the Spaniard starting this one however, with Villa lying in wait soon-after. I actually fancy Darren Bent to do some damage to Everton’s defence at the Stadium of Light but if he’s too rich for you then you can look to Chelsea’s Sturridge as a budget purchase. He looks set to start alongside Drogba at Birmingham, while Pompey’s Piquoinne is another who is certainly worth a look in his form against the Hammers defence.
Paddy Says…
Or Paddy Power pals have Liverpool as favourites to keep a clean sheet in the gameweek, with United and Chelsea coming next on equal odds. City then follow and Arsenal next favourites. I’m not so sure about the Gunners – Villa have only failed to score in one game so far this season. I see Wigan as a stronger option. In terms of goals, Paddy has Liverpool vs Wolves as the most likely to see four or more, with Hull vs United, Arsenal vs Villa and City vs Stoke on equal odds to follow.
Once again I’m prepared some special bets for those of you who are 18 and over and who fancy a wager or two to go with their turkey sandwiches. This weeks’ clean sheet accumulator offers you odds of 9/1 on City, Liverpool and Wigan all keeping shutouts. The Scout Picks bet meanwhile has 15/2 on goals for Gerrard, Rooney and Darren Bent. Bent was in my picks earlier in the week and as stated above, I still fancy him against Everton. Finally, if you want something with a some longer odds, you can back the “Coming to Dinner” picks from this week’s podcast in which Granville and I backed Danny Murphy and Tim Cahill for returns. You can get 25/1 on them both netting in the gameweek.
If you’ve yet to sign up for a Paddy Power account, just a reminder that the offer of a free £20 bet when you register through this site and make a £10 bet, still stands. Click here to get started.