To Wayne or not to Wayne, that is the question. The Fantasy Premier League captain poll says hand him the armband. Today’s “Rooney Roasting” poll says he will start. So what do I do? I leave him out of the Picks.
Let’s face facts though. If you have him in your team, you’re going to start him regardless. This is all about whether the Wayneless buy in Rooney this week or look elsewhere and invest in him later. Personally I’m holding fire, convinced that he’ll get an hour or less against Portsmouth before facing a tough one at Villa in midweek.
Enough about Rooney though, let’s talk about those actually in my selection…
The Defence
As mentioned in yesterday’s meander, there are two defences that stand out in the gameweek – with United and Birmingham both looking strong options with good home fixtures against shot-shy opponents. Beyond these two we’re forced to gamble somewhat, with defenders who at least threaten attacking points coming into play.
I’ve opted for Shay Given and his Man City defence in goal. Mancini’s side won’t get an easy ride at Hull, with Phil Brown’s side asking a few questions of visitors to the KC this season. City have defensive injuries to cope with so a clean sheet is far from assured. Given however, is a top keeper who will present a formidable last line. Save points in the Fantasy Premier League game (FPL) is the least we should see.
In front of Given the United defence is covered by the inclusion of the ever-reliable Patrice Evra. United should be good for a few goals at home to Portsmouth, which could see Evra spending plenty of time in his opponents half with the promise of an assist thrown into the mix. There are plenty of cheaper options available with Ferdinand out and Vidic and Rafael doubts. Johnny Evans looks a certain starter; Wes Brown less so.
The Birmingham defence will need to be on their toes at home to local rivals Wolves but have proven so far this term that they have the resolve to repel some of the most effective attacks in the division. Wolves possess far from an effective attack. Roger Johnson is the rock in the centre of the Birmingham backline and earns selection here. Ridgewell and Dann are also options should pennies need pinching.
The final two spots are more tricky. Fixtures don’t fall in favour of the Chelsea, Spurs or Villa defences but in the end I’ve opted to back Redknapp’s side against Villa and selected their new skipper Michael Dawson. Villa will doubtless cause Spurs issues but Redknapp’s side have been in strong defensive form at home, whilst Villa had previously struggled for goals before coming up against an out of sorts Fulham. Gareth Bale is an alternative if you’ve the cash – his forays down the left with Modric tucked inside, are likely to be a feature of this fourth place battle.
To complete the back four, I’ve gone for a Bolton defender. Stay with me on this. I can easily see Owen Coyle’s side keeping a second consecutive home clean sheet against Fulham. The visitors have injuries throughout and really struggled to get any rhythm going against Portsmouth on Wednesday. A 1-0 win was hardly convincing and is enough to persuade me that Bolton can keep them out at the Reebok. Gary Cahill gets the nod then with his considerable threat from set-plays.
The Midfield
Always the most tricky area of the Picks selection – again this week I had plenty of options to consider. There were genuinely no easy decisions available.
I always like to start with my big money Pick first, so I’ll firstly talk about the selection of Frank Lampard.
In simple terms its Lampard vs Fabregas vs Gerrard and for me, Frank remains the best pick for the second week running. While he failed to reward investment over the double gameweek, he remains a hugely influential player in the Chelsea machine. Drogba’s return will reduce his points output given the Ivorian’s role from direct free-kicks but I still see Lampard given every opportunity to get forward and contribute attacking points. The game against Arsenal at the Bridge will likely be a tight affair and a Lampard spot-kick could well decide matters. I certainly see Chelsea and Lampard surpassing Wenger’s side with Fabregas in line to draw consecutive fantasy blanks.
Alongside the Chelsea man I’ve yet again opted for Bolton’s Matt Taylor. I’m sure I’ll get some flack for sticking by the Bolton man but I’m going to stand by him. I’m backing Bolton to overcome Fulham by at least a couple of goals at the Reebok and Taylor remains the home side’s key player when it comes to a direct threat on goal. The statistics show that Taylor has had 71 attempts this season – Cohen is ranked second behind him on 38 efforts. Pure and simple then – Taylor is a key player for Owen Coyle’s side and sooner or later it will click for him from open play. When you consider he also plays a significant role in set-plays and is on spot-kicks, he has enough in his locker to buy him some time, particularly with two double gameweeks to come. Chung-Yong Lee is your cheaper option and certainly worth a look if you’ve had enough of my Taylor-fancying ways.
The third midfield spot is a risk. I’ve handed another selection to Stoke’s Tuncay in the hope that if they succeed in scoring against Blackburn, they will do so with some involvement from the Turk. Tuncay is a big player for Stoke and while Blackburn have the tools to see off Stoke’s set-play tactics, it may well take Tuncay’s twinkling feet to undo them. He’s also a good price and has a double fixture next gameweek.
The final midfield berth could easily have gone to Nani or Valencia but the quandry here is we are uncertain as to which of the two will start against Portsmouth. Maybe Ferguson will go with them both either side or Rooney or Berbatov but, from noises made in midweek, Ferguson wants to keep Nani wide on the right. That means that he remains in competition with the effective Valencia and there’s a chance that the Ecuadorian will get the nod here with Nani saved for the trip to Villa on Wednesday.
Similarly I considered City’s Martin Petrov – City’s most effective player of late behind Tevez. Concern over his starting role again convinced me to look elsewhere. Mancini has Wright-Phillips, Bellamy and now Adam Johnson to consider for the wide roles and that’s too much competition when you consider that City have four games in the next ten days.
Sunderland’s Andy Reid, Everton’s Tim Cahill, Wigan’s N’Zogbia and Burnley’s Chris Eagles were also considered, but in the end I’ve chosen to keep the faith with Liverpool’s Dirk Kuyt. The Dutchman scored in last week’s win over Bolton and I’m backing him to chip-in again here in what is set to be a very tight encounter with Everton.
The Forwards
Up front then where the big decision concerns Wayne Rooney. I’ve changed my mind on whether he will start against Portsmouth several times this week and, having slept on it again, I’m being positive and stating that I think he will be on the initial teamsheet at Old Trafford. I’m only about 70-30 right now though.
From Ferguson’s perspective, both Berbatov and Owen need pitch time as United enter the closing stages of the Champions League. United will likely go with 4-5-1 and Rooney at Villa on Wednesday, so I can easily see one or both of Berbatov and Owen starting against Portsmouth. With Ferguson indicating that he sees Owen and Rooney as similar in style, there’s every possibility that Rooney will be rested.
Even if Rooney does start, the question that remains in my head however is just how much pitch time he will gain. With the tough trip to Villa in midweek, Ferguson could well give him 45 minutes or even an hour depending on how the game pans out. Will that be enough for Rooney to earn yet more returns with goals and FPL bonus points?
The doubt is enough for me to be brave or foolish enough to look elsewhere for my Picks. I say brave but my selections are hardly that. There are still some very good options open this week which make it far easier to overlook even Rooney.
Carlos Tevez goes to Hull with form behind him and Adebayor likely to be by his side. It’s hard to see Hull standing up to that pairing and goals look pretty certain. Tevez has been in rich form and should return at least an assist and FPL bonus here.
He is partnered by Chelsea’s Didier Drogba who returned with a goal at Hull in midweek and will once again be the major threat to Arsenal’s backline on Sunday. Drogba destroyed the Gunners at the Emirates earlier this season and always enjoys himself against Wenger’s defence. With African Cup of Nations fatigue a possible factor, Drogba may not be at his best but he will likely still have enough to be a key figure in this encounter. I see more returns for Drogba in a Chelsea win.
Beyond these two you have Sunderland’s Bent up against the Wigan defence that always suffers on the road. A confident Defoe up against Villa and Bolton’s Kevin Davies who should be amongst the attacking points for Bolton against Fulham. I’ve gone for Burnley’s Steven Fletcher on my bench though, backing up my Fantasy Island Risk from this week’s podcast. As mentioned, I see a home win in this one and some returns for Fletcher, boosted by his recent goal against Chelsea.
Paddy Says…
United are Paddy’s overwhelming favourites for a clean sheet this weekend with odds of 4/9 on a shut-out against lowly Portsmouth. After that the odds lengthen somewhat to Birmingham (11/10) at home to Wolves, followed by City at Hull. Then comes Chelsea (6/4) at home to Arsenal and Liverpool (11/8) who host Everton. In short then, Paddy Power don’t fancy clean sheets this weekend outside of United and Birmingham.
When it comes to goals, again it’s United who are strongly backed by our bookmaker friends. The blue side of Manchester are their next shortest odds, with Chelsea also fancied for a few at home to Arsenal and Liverpool coming next in their Merseyside derby at Anfield. Sunderland and Spurs then follow when it comes to odds on three or more team goals scored.
Looking at individual player odds and unsurprisingly, it’s United players that dominate matters. Rooney is a big big favourite for goals with the shortest odds on anytime goalscorer (4/9) and two or more goals (2/1). Significantly perhaps, both Owen and Berbatov also have strong odds for anytime scorer – Paddy perhaps sharing the concerns that Rooney could be rested allowing starts for either or both of United’s bench-warming strikers. Following Rooney there are four strikers tied on odds for anytime scorer – Paddy are scarcely able to separate Tevez and Adebayor (5/4) and Drogba and Anelka (6/5). Sunderland’s Bent then comes next with Kuyt and Defoe to follow.
There are some interesting goalscoring odds in midfield, with the United pairing of Nani and Valencia much fancied. Given their opposition, that’s perhaps not surprising. Gerrard also has short odds but it’s Tuncay (2/1) and Petrov (13/5) that I find particularly significant. Both are strongly fancied by Paddy this week with similar odds to both Gerrard and Lampard. Bolton’s Matt Taylor and Birmingham’s Lee Bowyer then follow, with Blackburn’s Dunn, Everton’s Cahill and, surprisingly, Fabregas, trailing next. Obviously Paddy feels that Arsenal will face a difficult task against the Chelsea defence.
As usual we have some special markets selected with Paddy this week for those aged 18 or over who fancy a flutter. In the Clean Sheet Accumulator you can get odds of 9/1 on clean sheets for United, Birmingham and Stoke. In the Scout Picks market meanwhile you can get 20/1 on Matt Taylor, Carlos Tevez and Didier Drogba all scoring this weekend.
Don’t forget, if you’ve yet to register an account with Paddy Power you can still benefit from their offer of a free £20 bet when you join up via this site and make a £10 bet.