We’re in for a bizarre gameweek. Player selection is warped and distorted by a fixture list that shows just 14 Premier League teams on the menu. Bolton and Burnley attempt to confuse matters further by throwing a double fixture our way and we also have FA Cup Quarter Finals threatening to chuck us injuries and bans for the midweek fixtures. To add to that confusing cocktail, we’re kicking off the Fantasy Football Scout Cup with the qualifying round.
Level heads are needed. Whether this week’s Scout Picks will help you reach that state is debatable…
The Defence
I’ve freshened things up in goal this week, opting for West Ham’s Robert Green on his return from England duty in midweek. He comes up against a Bolton side at Upton Park that has scored just a couple of goals in their last five away games. The Hammers meanwhile have kept things pretty steady at home with just a single goal conceded in their last five encounters in front of their own fans. Green offers good clean sheet potential then, plus the odd save point should Bolton get within range.
The rest of the defence more or less picked itself with the fixture list handing us obvious gifts in this department. Much as I’d like to gamble on double offerings from Alexander for Burnley and Ricketts/Knight for Bolton, unless you’re chasing differentials, it makes sense to play safe and spend big this week.
While the Arsenal defence is always a slight risk, such is the potential for goals at home to Burnley to add to the chances of a shut-out against a Brian Laws side in miserable form, it’s almost impossible to ignore Thomas Vermaelen. His goalscoring record this season is just incredible for a new arrival to the Premier League and in a game where Arsenal could easily cut loose, you wouldn’t bet on him adding to his seven goal tally.
The other three members look far more assured when it comes to defensive points. Everton’s Leighton Baines goes into the weekend having made his England debut in midweek – that should give him the confidence to put in a performance at home to Hull. Phil Brown’s side have fight in them at the KC stadium but away from home they boast just two goals in their last five trips, whilst Everton show just a couple conceded in their previous five Goodision matches. Baines offers attacking threat down the left and I can see a cleanie with an assist here.
With Vidic and Ferdinand set to be restored to the United defence for the trip to Wolves, it’s hard to ignore their defensive potential this week. The home side have fight but their 4-5-1 is likely to come up against sound resistance from United’s restored rearguard. Just one home goal in five matches tells the tale for McCarthy’s side and it’s that stat which has me backing a clean sheet for Ferguson’s men here. Patrice Evra is once more the secure option here.
The final defensive spot goes to Liverpool’s Emiliano Insua – now assured of starting role at left-back with Fabio Aurelio now sidelined through injury once more. Liverpool go to Wigan having conceded just two goals on their travels in the last five. The home side meanwhile are showing form that has seen them score just twice in their last five DW stadium matches. Wigan may have laid themselves a new pitch, whether they can turn over a new leaf at home is another matter.
The Midfield
While Liverpool’s trip to Wigan looks likely to be a low-scoring, tight encounter, Steven Gerrard looks every inch a likely match winner. Back in scoring form and set to renew his telepathic relationship with the fit-again Fernando Torres, the Liverpool skipper earns another Picks selection this week having notched last time out.
Arsenal’s Cesc Fabregas is a necessity in the majority of weeks. When he’s lining up a defence like Burnley’s in his sights he becomes essential. Burnley have conceded more goals away from home than any other side and, on paper, are in for a hiding at the Emirates. It’s hard to believe that Fabregas won’t end the 90 minutes with yet more fantasy points in his pocket.
The remaining midfield slots aren’t so obvious. In the end I’ve gone for Everton’s Steven Pienaar for one, simply because I’m backing them for a two or three goal haul at home to Hull. Mikel Arteta is a temptation, although the stats show that he is yet to register an effort on goal in five starts, whilst Pienaar remains a consistent threat to an opponents goal when he starts. Leon Osman is another option – although his starting role could well be under threat if Moyes opts to go with Heitinga in a midfield anchor position.
Whilst I’m not totally convinced on the potential of Bolton with their double fixtures at West Ham and Sunderland in attacking terms, it looks a good idea to cover this with a midfield selection. Chung-Yong Lee looks the wisest selection here. The South Korean was involved in international duty in midweek but at Loftus Road rather than Korea. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue then and unlike Matt Taylor, Ricardo Gardner, Tamir Cohen and Jack Wilshere, Lee looks odds on to start both of Bolton’s matches. He’s lively and creative and might just be the catalyst for a Trotters goal or two.
The Forwards
There’s talk of a rest for Wayne Rooney for United and that could well materialise. Even so, it takes a very brave Fantasy Manager to right him off and leave him out of their lineup for the trip to Wolves in his current form. There’s a knee injury troubling Rooney and Ferguson is concerned about fatigue setting in for his striker, particularly with the Champions League clash with AC Milan approaching on Wednesday. Even so, i can see him starting and completing over an hour of action at Molineux and it’s hard to see Rooney not doing some damage to the Wolves defence in this time.
Liverpool’s Fernando Torres is of course your alternative this week to the heavy-hitting Rooney. His trip to Wigan could turn into a goalfest but it looks unlikely. Rafa’s side are notoriously conservative away from home and have notched just two goals in their last five trips. Wigan may fold on their travels but they don’t make things as easy in home matches. I’m betting on a 1-0 for Liverpool here with early investors in Torres disappointed in comparison to points hauls elsewhere.
So it’s Nicklas Bendtner in my Scout Picks again. The Arsenal striker has scored his last three outings for the Gunners and Denmark and takes this form into the Burnley game against a defence that could fold under the tidal wave of Arsenal’s flowing football. Bendtner should keep his run of goals going here.
The Bench
I’m keeping Burnley’s Graham Alexander in reserve on my bench, mainly because I can see his side getting something out of their second fixture at home to Stoke in midweek. Alexander looks nailed on for both this and the Emirates trip, although the fear is that he will suffer heavy losses from a defeat at the hands of Arsenal. Sunderland’s Michael Turner, subject of a recent Watchlist article, presents a more conservative defensive option.
I’ve gone for West Ham’s Scott Parker for the midfield slot. I’m backing a decent home win in their game with Bolton and Parker, back after a hamstring complaint, should be a major influence in that. Similarly, I’ve opted for teammate Carlton Cole as my reserve striker. Everton’s Yakubu and Burnley’s Fletcher were both consderations but I settled on the West Ham striker, simply because he’s so strong for home matches and I see at least a couple of goals for Zola’s men.
Paddy Says…
Arsenal hosting beleaguered Burnley at the Emirates are Paddy’s favourites for a clean sheet at the weekend (8/13) with United at Wolves (8/11) and Everton at home to Hull (5/6) their next favourites to earn shut-outs. Liverpool at Wigan (evens) and then West Ham at home to Bolton (13/10) then follow. That effectively reinforces my defensive selections in this week’s Picks.
My selection of Fabregas and Bendtner is also backed by Paddy’s view that the Emirates is likely to be the most likely source of three or more goals. Arsenal are 11/4 in that market with Everton against Hull (7/2) and United at Wolves (7/2) following on. West Ham and Liverpool also can’t be seperated next at (9/2) for three goals.
Arshavin and Bendtner (8/11) are the favourites as anytime goalscorers along with Rooney (also 8/11) at Wolves. Then comes Torres for Liverpool at Wigan (5/6), Arsenal’s Fabregas (evens) with Yakubu (11/10), Carlton Cole (6/5) and Kuyt (5/4) and Gerrard (5/4) all following up.
If you fancy a flutter to back your fantasy lineups this week and you’re aged 18 or over of course, then take a look at the three special markets I’ve lined up for you. The Clean Sheet Accumulator offers 15/2 on Everton, West Ham and Liverpool all earning clean sheets this weekend. In the Scout Picks market meanwhile you can get odds of 7/1 on Fabregas, Gerrard and Rooney all scoring one or more goals over the gameweek. Finally, I put together a fun double gameweek special on the chances of returns for Burnley’s Graham Alexander. You can get odds of 7/1 on Burnley keeping a clean sheet in either the Arsenal or Bolton fixtures in the gameweek with Alexander scoring one or more goals in either game.
Don’t forget that Paddy Power are still offering a free £20 when you register via this site and make a £10 bet. Once again this offer is only open to those aged 18 and over.