With double gameweek’s for Villa and Wigan, plus some desirable home fixtures for Chelsea, Liverpool and United and the injury to Cesc Fabregas, the script for gameweek 30 almost writes itself.
Covering the Villa defence, with four clean sheets in six, looks essential. Covering the chances of Milner taking another step towards South Africa by winning more plaudits and Fantasy Premier League bonus points looks almost essential. The only real dilemma appears to be how you back those three big sides at home this week – with Drogba, Rooney, Torres, Gerrard and Lampard all lining their sights up on obliging opponents and big fantasy hauls, where does your big money go?
Here’s the Scout Picks to offer my two-penneth…
The Defence
Starting in goal and it’s Brad Friedel who comes into the Picks lineup to represent the Villa defence. While the members of Villa’s back four continue to be strong purchases for this and next gameweek (when Villa have two home fixtures), Friedel looks the best option given that Villa face two away games at Stoke and Wigan. That pair are likely to give the American some work to do, which will mean that any clean sheet returns should be complimented by points from saves. You can argue that the likes of Collins and Dunne offer better Fantasy Premier League bonus potential and you’d be right. However, with decent defensive picks available from other sources, Friedel makes sense for the Picks.
The selection of Branislav Ivanovic once again is perhaps my biggest risk this week. The Chelsea defence is hardly secure while Cech sits out and Ancelotti’s side have a record over the last five home games that shows seven goals conceded. Having said that, the visitors this weekend are a West Ham side who aren’t travelling well of late. They have no wins in five on the road and have scored just two goals in that spell. A home shut-out looks likely and we might even see the Ivanovic throw-in contribute in attacking terms.
With United and Liverpool both at home against Fulham and Portsmouth respectively, both of their defences looks wise selections. That means Patrice Evra gets the nod yet again by default – although the cheaper Rafael should be good for a start in this one if you’re looking for a short-term selection. Gary Neville started at right-back in midweek which should see Rafael with the shirt against Fulham. Hodgson’s side arrive at Old Trafford with just two goals scored in their last five away trips. United meanwhile haven’t conceded a single goal in their last five home matches. Evra, with his attacking threat down the left, is again the best option.
As for Liverpool, they remain woefully short of ideas going forward but continue to be miserly at the other end. Defeat to Wigan on Monday was disappointing but even with this result Rafa’s side have conceded just four goals in their last eleven league matches. Monday saw the return of Glen Johnson to the Liverpool back four and he is your prime source of defensive points if you can afford him. Emiliano Insua, protected by the absence of Fabio Aurelio, is your cheaper alternative.
The final spot in the Picks back four is a slight gamble in that Tottenham’s Gareth Bale could find himself benched if Harry Redknapp opts to shore up his midfield with the selection of Younes Kaboul in the midfield holding role. Having praised Bale in the week however and after his showing on the flank at Fulham in the FA Cup last weekend, I’d like to think that the Welshman will hold his starting role. Employed on the left wing, Bale will be a key attacking threat to Blackburn when they visit White Hart Lane. Add to that the potential of a home clean sheet from a Spurs side that has conceded just a single goal in their last five Lane encounters and you can see clear value in Bale this week.
The Midfield
It’s in the attacking areas that we really have difficult decisions to make this week. The likely loss of Cesc Fabregas as a midfield option at least makes things a little easier but with a smorgasbord of talent available to us – selection of the most profitable options isn’t easy. In terms of the Picks I could of course hedge my bets and go for a midfield that boasts both Chelsea’s Frank Lampard and Liverpool’s Steven Gerrard. That would be too easy and to my mind. You don’t need me to tell you that both look good options for the gameweek. I feel it’s my duty to put my neck on the line and commit to backing one or the other here, since this conundrum will be reflected in many fantasy football minds going into the weekend.
To an extent I have still hedged my bets. By selecting Frank Lampard over Gerrard in midfield, it gave me the freedom to cover Liverpool’s attacking potential with Fernndo Torres up front. Reluctantly there’s no place in the Picks for Didier Drogba then with Rooney an essential pick alongside Torres. I was going to either go with a Gerrard/Drogba or Lampard/Torres combination and I’ve opted for the latter because I feel that Gerrard’s contribution to the Liverpool performance is more difficult to call. Rafa could well start with Kuyt playing just off Torres, with Maxi/Babel and or Riera in the wide roles
For those chasing a gap and a major differential, investment in Gerrard and Torres with Portsmouth in town on Monday night looks a very good option. The formbook confirms this as a gamble however. Such investment would require Liverpool to hand out a beating to the bottom side. On paper this looks likely but then Liverpool have not scored more than two goals in a league game since they thrashed Hull City at Anfield back in September. Recent performances, showing a side bereft of attacking ideas, does little to suggest that Rafa’s men will dispose easily of Pompey if Avram Grant’s side turn up and offer a battle. In their situation there’s little to suggest they won’t.
Lampard in contrast goes into the West Ham game with a stat that shows that only United have prevented Chelsea scoring two or more goals at Stamford Bridge this season. A home win by a two or three goal margin looks good then and both Lampard and Drogba should be in profit. I also fancy Malouda for a supporting role.
Two of the remaining midfield slots go to double gameweek players with Villa’s James Milner and Wigan’s Charles N’Zogbia the obvious and most secure selections. While Stewart Downing and Ashley Young provide good differentials for Villa, as I mentioned in Thursday’s podcast, I’m a little worried about Villa’s ability to score goals at Stoke and Wigan. Young and Downing will need chances to be converted to bring in points whereas Milner offers greater potential for FPL bonus points, even if goals are hard to come by for O’Neill’s men.
As for N’Zogbia, FPL bonus plays a part here. He’s been a bonus magnet all season which has helped to compensate for disappointing goal and assists returns of late. He is however a key threat and a major influence on Wigan’s attacking play. I can see his run of just one goal and one assist in his last eight league games coming to an end over his two fixtures.
The final midfield slot goes to Tottenham’s mercurial Croatian Luka Modric. Harry Redknapp shifted Modric into a central position for the FA Cup tie at Fulham last weekend, employing Bale wide left. That strategy is likely to be in place for the home game with Blackburn and I see Modric thriving on his increased involvement in Tottenham’s attacking play and continuing his recent fantasy form.
The Forwards
There’s little to discuss up front. As mentioned I’ve opted for Fernando Torres over Drogba with Lampard covering Chelsea’s attacking returns. It will be very close between the two strikers in the gameweek and both should be in profit. The form of Wayne Rooney prevents me from picking both though. The United man comes up against a Fulham side off the back of two goals against AC Milan in the Champions League. You wouldn’t bet against him doing the damage again this weekend against Hodgson’s side who are still struggling on their travels. United’s irresistible home form should continue, as should Rooney’s impressive goal count.
There are plenty of alternatives of course – Nicklas Bendtner for Arsenal at Hull, Jermain Defoe for Spurs at home to Blackburn and of course Carew and Agbonlahor with their double fixtures. In the end I opted for Bendtner to take the strikers role on the bench, with Chelsea’s Malouda and Wigan’s Scharner taking up the midfield and defensive sub roles.
Paddy Says…
This week’s Scout markets at Paddy Power offers you 4/1 in the Clean Sheet Accumulator if you fancy Liverpool, Spurs and United to keep shut-outs. The Scout Picks bet meanwhile demonstrates just how undecided I’ve been this week on my selection – you can get 9/2 on Drogba, Gerrard and Rooney all scoring one or more goals in the gameweek.
I’ve also put together some Double Gameweek specials. You can get 5/1 on Villa keeping clean sheets in both their matches at Stoke and Wigan. Wigan themselves are 16/1 on keeping two consecutive cleanies at Bolton and at home to Villa. There’s 14/1 on James Milner scoring two or more goals over his two fixtures, while Agbonlahor is offered at 15/2 for two or more goals against Stoke and Wigan.
If you fancy any of those odds and have yet to sign up for a Paddy Power account then you can take advantage of their offer which gives you a free £20 when you register an account via this site and bet a tenner. Click here to get started.
Oh and by the way, don’t forget that if you entered our free Last Man Standing tournament with Paddy, that all kicks off again this week. Don’t forget to make your team selection.