It’s a case of springtime déjà vu for Martin O’Neill as the form of his Aston Villa side tails off and, once again, hopes of a Champions League place look forlorn. Five games left and seven points off fourth place seems a bridge too far, but this upcoming double game week sees Villa take on the Premier League’s bottom two away from home…
Opponents
Portsmouth have now failed to score in four league games since beating Hull in Iain Dowie’s debut game as the Tigers’ manager. With the FA Cup Final their priority, Avram Grant’s eight changes at Wigan this midweek following on from the semi-final win over Spurs is perhaps indicative of his future league selection policy, with the club already relegated.
Hull’s first home league game produced a win and a clean sheet for Iain Dowie, but the second home game was last weekend against Burnley. They may well have a game in hand over their relegation rivals, but Hull are still four points from safety, and, given that the other two teams in the drop zone have hit seven goals past them in two games since Dowie took over, the signs are pretty ominous right now.
Current Form
Villa have been beaten just once since the turn of the year, in the seven-one mauling at Stamford Bridge. Their home form -one win and six draws on seven games- suggests O’Neill will be glad the games are on the road this time round.
Villa’s game is more suited to counter-attack, and their league results since January (in comparison to their results at home ) stand testament to that fact: three wins, two draws and just the one (Chelsea) loss. Villa have picked up four clean sheets in those games, scoring once two times, twice two times and also failing to find the net on two occasions.
Rotation
Villa’s team is virtually the same week in, week out, and with no more cup ties on the horizon, Martin O’Neill will surely rely on his strongest line-up as he looks to leapfrog Liverpool into sixth place by winning their game in hand.
Recent games have seen the likes of Steve Sidwell feature in five of the last six games, albeit four as a sub. However, with many Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers looking at the forwards, it’s worth looking at the recent game-time O’Neill has allowed his men up front.
Despite John Carew and Emile Heskey tending to take turns alongside Gabbi Agbonlahor, Carew seems to have cemented his place as a starter these days; the last four games have seen Heskey play 34 minutes, whereas Carew has played 311 minutes.
In comparison to Agbonlahor, however, Carew inevitably suffers in terms of game-time; he has finished just seven league games he started this season, whereas Agbonlahor has twenty-six 90min appearances to his name.
Potential Targets
Villa’s FPL points are evenly spread amongst the team making it harder to pinpoint exact players; they have a goalkeeper, two defenders and two midfielders amongst the top five highest point scorers for their respective positions. Lack of a real cutting edge up front is reflected in the fact that Villa have only scored more than one goal four times away from home in the league all season.
Richard Dunne, Carlos Cuellar, James Collins
The trio’s last five league appearances have seen them pick up eleven, twelve and eleven FPL points respectively, an indicator of how similar their current returns have been. Playing against the bottom two teams, surely there’s at least one clean sheet to be picked up?
Predicted Return: 1 clean Sheet, 3 Bonus Points between them.
James Milner/Ashley Young
Of the two, Young is the man in form, no question; picking up 31 pts from his last five league appearances, in comparison to Milner’s total of 20, he looks the more likely of the two to grab a decent points haul. Milner is still the likeliest to grab Bonus Points, having picked up more than twice that of Young. Young, however, is the “differential”, have just 12% of FPL owners compared to Milner’s 28%.
Predicted Return:
Milner:1 assist, 1 clean sheet, 2 Bonus Points.
Young: 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 clean sheet, 2 Bonus Point.
John Carew/Gabby Agbonlahor
Once again, it’s the player with the lowest percentage of owners that’s the form man here; Carew has 29 points in his last five league games, whilst Agbonlahor has 13 in his last five.
Whilst there’s talk of away games suiting Agbonlahor’s pace more, he has scored six goals at home and six away, so there’s no real advantage on the road. Carew, however, seems to be more of a homebird, scoring six of his eight league goals at Villa Park.
Predicted Return:
Agbonlahor: 1 goal. Carew: 1 goal, 1 assist.