Next up in our double gameweek write-ups is Fulham, who have two very tasty looking home fixtures against West Ham and Stoke. On paper Fulham look like the pick of the doubles, but unfortunately these things are never that straightforward.
Last night’s incredible victory over Hamburg was the first of five games they have to play in the space of just 13 days, including the all-important Europa League final scheduled for May 12th. Roy Hodgson made it perfectly clear where Fulham’s priorities lie when he made nine changes at Everton, so with the league now reduced to a mere sideshow, can we look past Hodgson’s Roy’tation antics and pick out any Fulham players worthy of investment?
The Opponents
First up on Sunday is West Ham, who secured their premier league survival with victory over Wigan last weekend. Much like Fulham this year, the Hammers have been let down by their dreadful form away from home. They haven’t won away since the very first game of the season, and their last six league away games read: W0 D1 L5 F4 A16. In addition, they have chalked up just one clean sheet on the road since August. There is enough quality in Zola’s lineup to cause anyone problems however, and the likes of Scott Parker and Carlton Cole will surely be a constant threat.
Next up on Wednesday is a rather dull looking tie at home to Stoke. Another team lurking around mid-table, Stoke can be justifiably proud of another solid season. With safety from relegation assured and no European adventures of their own however, they have little left to play for and I can see this one being a low scoring affair.
Before last weekend’s humiliation at Chelsea, Stoke’s recent league away had been very impressive. Their six games on the road previous to Stamford Bridge read: P6 W2 D4 L0 F5 A3, with 3 clean sheets acquired in those matches. Certainly a lot better than West Ham’s, although in terms of fire power, five goals in six games is hardly going to frighten Fulham’s rearguard.
The Current form
Fulham’s away form in the league has been truly abysmal this year, with their only win on the road coming against Portsmouth, way back in August. Thankfully, their form at Craven Cottage is much better, largely due to their solid defensive returns of just 12 goals conceded all season, a statistic unbeaten by any other Premier League side.
Fulham like to play a narrow 4-4-2 formation to ensure that play is constrained to the middle of the park, where they are defensively very strong. While this tactic has worked very well for them at the back, their lack of firepower upfront has seen them struggle to create goal scoring opportunities recently, managing just 12 shots on target in their last six league games.
The Rotation Risk
With the Europa League final looming, we can surely expect to see rotation in one or both of their league fixtures. How Hodgson decides to play it is anyone’s guess, but my feeling is that Fulham won’t make massive changes in either of this week’s games, as the Arsenal game is the most likely time to do this. Instead, I would expect a few of the more tired players to get a rest, with the likes of Baird, Dempsey and Nevland taking up some of the slack. My perhaps misguided reasoning for this is that Fulham rested almost the entire team against Hull and Everton when they had big European games coming up, and if he plans to do this again against Arsenal, then his first team players will have a full week’s rest between the Stoke game and the Final.
Fulham’s ideal first team line-up is more or less as it was last night, but with Zamora limping off last night after a recurrence of his Achilles injury, Dempsey should start in his place up front. Chris Baird missed last night’s game through suspension and as a result, I would expect him to play against West Ham, either as right back to give John Pantsil a rest, or in centre midfield in place of Murphy or Etuhu.
Defenders look your best bet to avoid rotation; Mark Schwarzer hasn’t missed a game all season while Brede Hangeland, Aaron Hughes and Paul Konchesky also appear to be relatively safe after being rested against Everton. Chris Smalling and Nicky Shorey could potentially cut into the game time of the three defenders but I think this is unlikely. The right back spot is less secure, Pantsil is first choice but he is still not fully match fit and is unlikely to play both games. The alternatives are Baird and Davies, who have both done a good job there this season.
The likes of Duff, Dempsey and Gera will all attract attention from Fantasy Managers but I am leaning towards Dempsey as being the pick of the three. He will be fresher than the other two after starting on the bench last night, and the likelihood of him playing as the main striker gives him an extra edge.
The Potential targets
Mark Schwarzer – With the injuries to Sorenson and Given, Mark Schwarzer could be the ideal replacement. He hasn’t missed a game all season so he offers a risk free way to tap into what could be a high scoring week for Fulham’s defence.
Predicted Return – 2 games, 1 clean sheet, 4 saves
Brede Hangeland/Aaron Hughes/Paul Konchesky – The mainstay of Fulham’s rearguard, all three have a decent chance of playing the full 90 minutes in both games, although the availability of Chris Smalling and Nicky Shorey as options for their positions is a concern. That factor clearly makes Schwarzer the most reliable source of defensive returns and makes all three a slight gamble.
Likely returns – 1 game each, 1 clean sheet
Chris Baird – Chris Baird has become something of a cult hero with the Fulham fans after a disappointing first season. At 4.4m in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, he represents great value but the return of first choice right back John Pantsil, means his place in the team is no longer guaranteed. His absence from Thursday night’s lineup should at least see him start against West Ham.
Predicted Return – 2 games, 1 clean sheet, 8 points
Damien Duff – Fulham’s highest points scoring player in the FPL game, the creative flair and assist potential of Duff could make him a good prospect for this week, if he can avoid rotation. A big “if”.
Likely returns – 1 game, 1 clean sheet, 1 bonus point
Zoltan Gera –At just 4.6m in FPL and playing out of position as a second striker, if Gera plays both games he could be a real bargain. His two goals against Juventus and performance against Hull made a lot of managers pay closer attention and Gera didn’t disappoint against Wigan or Wolves, bagging all 3 Bonus points in both games. A calm and clinical winner against Hamburg last night only strengthens his case for inclusion.
Predicted Return – 1 game, 1 clean sheet, 1 assist, 3 bonus points
Clint Dempsey – Earlier in the season he went on a run of five goals in five games while playing as a makeshift striker, before suffering minor knee ligament damage that kept him out the next 7 games. Such an eye for goal shows he’s more than capable of deputising for Bobby Zamora, in light of Roy Hodgson‘s revelation that Bobby Z may be rested until the Europa Cup Final. Assuming he plays as the main striker again, he would be a very attractive fantasy prospect for this week.
Predicted Return – 2 games, 1 goal, 1 clean sheet, 2 bonus points
