With Didier Drogba and Florent Malouda struggling for form, Mikel Arteta, Steven Gerrard, Carlos Tevez, Rafael Van der Vaart and Frank Lampard all ruled out through suspension or injury, spending the entire £100 million budget in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game has become an unlikely challenge. Personally I’ve got 7.5million in the bank, which just feels weird and unnatural – I’m struggling to sleep at night.
Maybe it’s something we should be getting used to, as while a rich array of expensive talent is missing, there appears to be a regular supply of Fantasy potential in and around the budget bracket. That’s where you can find value and it’s also where you’ll locate those “differentials”, the players that offer a potential leg-up over your mini-league rivals.
Differentials are our business in this Friday regular and business is good, as once again we pick out our four favourite “unfashionables” for the Gameweek ahead…
Ryan Nelson
Five times as many managers own Chris Samba than Ryan Nelsen which is surprising, considering their very similar fantasy returns over recent seasons. Samba does tend to bring in more Bonus Points, but in terms of goal threat, they are very evenly matched. Nelsen has the edge so far this season, with two goals and two assists in the last four games and has put together FPL scores of 6,11,-1 and 15 over those games, the one blip being their 7-1 mauling by Man United.
Blackburn have been pretty inconsistent away from home recently, but with two clean sheets in their last three games, they will be hoping that they can do a lot better defensively against local rivals Bolton. At 4.9m in the FPL, he comes in 0.2m less than Samba and has just 2.0% ownership.
Nenad Milijas
The Serbian International has taken a while to settle into Premier League life, but now looks to have claimed a permanent position in the Wolves midfield and is finally showing some of the skill and attacking intent that got their fans so excited when he arrived last summer. It is his potential for goals and assists that make him such a promising Fantasy prospect, and although he has managed just one of each since breaking into the side in October, his performances in recent games suggest that there are plenty more where they came from.
In his final season for Red Star Belgrade, Milijas was the league’s top scorer with 22 goals, a very impressive feat for a central midfielder, regardless of opposition. The OPTA stats available to Members also suggest he has been unlucky not to score more in the Premier League so far; he has managed 8 attempts on goal in his last 4 games, just one behind the likes of Samir Nasri, Tim Cahill or Nani. As Serbia’s main penalty taker, Milijas also offers the potential for some bonus goals from the spot, although it is not yet known whether he will take over the penalties from Kevin Doyle.
Milijas is priced at 5.0m so will fit into the budget midfielder category, but it is his 0.1% ownership that makes him such an interesting prospect. As a fifth midfielder, it is hard to see better value anywhere else in the game for this weekend’s fixtures which is why he’s earned a Scout Pick bench selection.
Jack Rodwell
The young Everton midfielder played all 90 minutes against Chelsea, and with Arteta suspended for the next two, he looks certain to retain his place for their home game against Wigan this weekend. Despite his obvious talent, he was a poor Fantasy pick last season as he was in and out of the team and was played mostly as a holding midfielder. Towards the end of the year, however, Moyes changed his role in the team and his attacking performances from centre midfield, showed just how versatile he can be. His strong finish to the season last year (2 goals and 2 assists in 5 game period, including that dramatic last minute goal against Man United) was followed by another two goals in pre-season, so he looks a much better prospect this time round.
With 0.6% ownership, and a home game against struggling Wigan coming up, in the short term at least, he looks a good option for 5.0m. Long term, much will depend on whether he can keep a place in the side once Arteta returns so he will be looking to prove what he can do this weekend.
David Ngog
Liverpool have played two strikers in each of their last three league games and their excellent performances in those matches suggest that they will stick with this strategy for the foreseeable future. The Villa match was particularly impressive as they dominated from start to finish despite missing the spine of their team in Carragher, Gerrard and Torres. Raul Meireles and Maxi Rodriguez both put in good performances against Villa, but it was the young French striker that particularly caught the eye. His goal, assist and 3 Bonus Points saw him rack up a 12 point haul and at just 4.8m, he looks exceptionally good value, especially when you consider that his partner, Fernando Torres comes in at 11.9m.
With Gerrard set to miss the Newcastle game, Ngog’s place in the side looks certain for this week at least, but it is unclear how they will line up once the England star returns. After the week that Newcastle have had however, Liverpool will fancy their chances of getting a few goals at St James Park. Ngog could cement his place in the side with another strong attacking performance.
Nearly making it onto the short list this week was West Brom’s Somen Tchoyi, who, despite scoring in consecutive games, is still showing as having 0.0% ownership. To get rounded down to 0.0% instead of up to 0.1% means that less than 1160 people in the whole world own him… you can’t get much more differential than that!
Bolton’s Mark Davies has been outstanding in last two games, and his goal and assist against Blackburn proved what a shrewd purchase he was to the 0.1% of managers that have him in their teams. The imminent return of Stuart Holden make him too much of a risk to make the shortlist this week however, but at just 4.2m, he is definitely one to keep an eye on. Finally, Wigan’s Tom Cleverley showed once again what good value he is at 4.2m with another goal last weekend, but a difficult trip to Goodison this time meant he just missed out.
