After such a disappointing lack of action last weekend, we now move into the busiest period of the season with three Gameweeks in just seven days; we will be covering all three in this special Christmas edition of “Spot The Differential”.
While rivals eat, drink and sleep their way through the festive period, many will be oblivious of the revised deadlines, and with rotation set to to play a part amongst the bigger sides, owners of players such as Samir Nasri, Dimitar Berbatov or Marouanne Chamakh, where decent squad alternatives exist, may see their star players sat on the bench. An astute manager can take advantage in a big way then, and a good differential can be worth his weight in Gold (or indeed Frankincense or Myrrh.)….
Craig Gordon
Despite reclaiming the number one jersey seven weeks ago, more than four times as many people still own second choice Simon Mignolet than Craig Gordon, who is currently sat on just 0.9% ownership. While many less attentive managers will have simply not noticed the change in personnel, the Scotland international cannot be ignored after a series of outstanding performances in the Sunderland goal, including this world class stop against Bolton last weekend. At just 4.5m in the FPL game, Gordon looks like great value and with Sunderland’s home and away fixtures dovetailing perfectly with Newcastle’s over the season, a pairing of Gordon and Krul (assuming he keeps Harper out of the side) looks like an excellent choice.
Sunderland’s defensive record so far this season has been superb; their three clean sheets in the last three games take them to nine in total, more than any other side in the league so far. Despite a tricky fixture against United on Boxing day, Sunderland still look to have one of the best set of Christmas fixtures as they take on Blackpool and Blackburn at home in their next two. If they can retain their defensive form, Gordon and the previously spotted Phil Bardsley will provide exceptional value over this crucial period.
Jose Bosingwa
One of the essential buys in the 2008/09 season, Bosingwa has spent most of the following year and a half in the treatment room, and after a brief return to fitness this season, suffered a further hamstring injury against Everton three weeks ago. He goes into the Christmas period as a doubt then, but reports suggest he has shrugged it off and will be fit to play a part against Arsenal.
Since returning to the side in early November, Bosingwa has put in a series of impressive performances, and now looks to be first choice right back, with Ancelotti preferring the attacking threat he poses to the more defensive Ivanovic or Ferreira. At 5.5m and an ownership of just 1.5%, that is enough for us to consider him as a differential for Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures, although as with any player returning from injury, he comes with a ‘dont blame us if he doesnt play’ type warning affixed.
Chelsea’s next game at The Emirates perhaps isn’t the most straightforward fixture for a Fantasy defender, but the two games at home to Bolton and Aston Villa that follow, are a lot more promising and Bosingwa could well be kept in reserve with these in mind. Despite their recent wobble in form, Chelsea have only let in four goals at Stamford Bridge all season, and three of those were in the same game, against Sunderland. We can expect at least one clean sheet in those two games then, and Bosingwa’s attacking threat may be enough justification to chuck him in against Arsenal as well.
The new filtered OPTA stats available in the beta version of the members area, allow us to analyse just those games where Bosingwa has played a part, and the results are pleasantly surprising. In the five games he has featured this season, he completed more key passes, made more passes in the opponents half, and supplied more crosses than the infinitely more popular Ashley Cole (in Fantasy football terms of course). Considering Cole currently comes in at a record breaking 8.4m, an injury-free Bosingwa looks like an almost essential purchase if he can cement regular starts.
Mikel Arteta
While new Fantasy favourite Tim Cahill has been nodding them in left, right and centre, Mikel Arteta has fallen out of favour with Fantasy Managers in a big way, dropping to just 2.1% total ownership in the FPL game. His red card against West Brom will have been the last straw for many managers, so it would take a brave man to invest in the Spaniard right now. Don’t write him off just yet though, Arteta has been one of the most consistent Fantasy performers over recent seasons, and there are several reasons why Arteta could represent a great prospect over forthcoming weeks once again.
After missing the last three games through suspension, Arteta will be raring to go once more, and will surely play a part in all three Christmas fixtures. There is no denying his Fantasy returns have been hampered by playing a more defensive role this season, but he has proven he can score points regardless of where he plays and the return of Marouane Fellaini should help free Arteta from his recent role as defensive creator, and allow him to get involved in more attacking build-up play. Cahill is also due to leave for the Asian Cup in the New year, so we can expect the more defensive Jack Rodwell to come in, allowing Arteta even more space to push on. When you add in his free kick, corner and penalty duties, there should be more than enough chances for Arteta to get on the score sheet.
First up in the hectic Christmas period is a home game against Birmingham, followed by a trip to under pressure West Ham, and another away game against Stoke. Interestingly, all three sides traditionally play with four across the middle, so Arteta should benefit from the extra man in Everton’s five man midfield, especially against Birmingham who play such a deep defensive line. At 8.0m, Arteta is probably the most expensive differential we’ve promoted this season, but this price is cheap if he can replicate his Fantasy returns from last season. Besides, with an average of 1.1 bonus points per game this season, at least we can rely on him nicking Cahill’s bonus even if he does nothing all game.
Moussa Dembele
Another slight risk this one seeing as Dembele has missed the last four games through injury, but he has been so influential in the Fulham side this season that we have decided to stick our necks out and opt for the Belgian International anyway. Keep an eye on the tweets for last minute updates; the latest news is that he has returned to training and is rated 50-50 by Fulham boss Mark Hughes.
Since Dembele suffered his ankle injury, Fulham have picked up just two points and their lack of firepower up front is a major concern to Hughes. With Andrew Johnson struggling to find the form he showed before his injury, and the influential Bobby Zamora still recovering from a leg fracture, Dembele and Clint Dempsey will be key to Fulham’s chances over the next three games when they face West Ham, Stoke and Tottenham.
Dembele has dropped to just 4.9m since the start of the season, and with 0.5% ownership across the FPL game he could be a big differential to this season’s big bandwagon strikers, Carroll and Elmander. His biggest chance of goals will come in their home game against West Ham on Boxing day, so much will depend on the results of that fitness test.
The best of the rest..
Nearly making the list this week was Dembele’s Fulham team-mate and Mark’s Fantasy Island pick, Zoltan Gera. Over the last six games he has had more shots on target than any other midfielder in the league except Nani and Clint Dempsey. Dembele’s return may impact on his pitch time however, so we opted for the striker, but if he retains his place then he offers a viable alternative to the more expensive Dempsey. Mark Davies at Bolton who returns from suspension this week just misses out again, but looks great value at just 4.2m. If he can hold down his spot in midfield this weekend, he will likely feature in our Gameweek 22 article, when Bolton face Wigan at home. Finally, Junior Stanislas will be hoping for a starting role after scoring against Blackburn in a substitute appearance last time out. With 0.0% ownership, he is a huge punt right now but showed enough promise last season to become a good option if he can earn a permanent place in the side.
