Our bookmaker friends at Paddy Power are blissfully oblivious to the double Gameweek scramble but that doesn’t stop them influencing our decisions.
The odds on United’s defensive and attacking players going into the weekend are of particular interest as yet again, Wayne Rooney is heavily backed to trouble the scoresheet. In terms of clean sheets, United are also out on top, although, according to Paddy, if you want further defensive returns, you’ll need to look to teams with single fixtures over the Gameweek as Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea lead the rest of the double Gameweek pack…
Who Will Keep a Clean Sheet?
- Man Utd 1.61 (BIR)
- Arsenal 1.72 (WIG)
- Everton 2.00 (WHM)
- Chelsea 2.20 (bol)
- Fulham 2.40 (stk)
- Man City 2.70 (avl)
- Liverpool 2.70 (wol)
Manchester United’s unbeaten run looks set to continue for another week, based on Paddy’s forcast against struggling Birmingham. The Red Devils hold the top spot in the league with a resolute 0.64gch (goals conceeded at home), whereas Birmingham float a mere point from the bottom, even with a respectable 1.1gas (goals scored away).
With a similar price, we see the other side of the coin as Wigan take on Arsenal at the Emirates. Arsenal’s attacking instincts and injuries at the back are emphasised by their defensive stat of 1.1gch, near double that of Man Utd. Wigan, on the other hand, have scratched only 0.8gas over the course of the campaign so far. Paddy predicts that as much as United will keep Birmingham out, Wigan will fail to mount a sustained threat to Arsenal’s goal.
Everton tie up the top three, again perhaps due to West Ham’s continued lack of quality in front of goal (0.73gas). Chelsea feature quite highly with their trip to the Reebok; they’ve conceded 1.09 goals per game away from home this season. A decent record, although City go to Villa with the best defensive on the road, having conceded just 0.89 goals per game away from Eastlands. Paddy rates Chelsea’s chances of a shutout above City, no doubt based on recent form that shows that the Sky Blues defence has conceded 5 goals conceded in the last 2. There is value here for me however – I’m not convinced that City have suddenly forogtton how to defend and Darren Bent could well be in for a frustrating debut at Villa Park.
Anytime Goalscorer
- Rooney 1.57 (BIR)
- Van Persie 1.57 (WIG)
- Berbatov 1.66 (BIR
- Chamakh 1.72 (WIG)
- Hernandez 1.83 (BIR)
- Bendtner 1.90 (WIG)
- Nasri 2.00 (WIG)
- Torres 2.00 (wol)
- Tevez 2.10 (avl)
- Drogba 2.10 (bol)
- Arshavin 2.20 (WIG)
- Nani 2.30 (BIR)
- Saha 2.30 (whm)
- Vela 2.40 (WIG)
- Dzeko 2.40 (avl)
- Walcott 2.40 (WIG)
- Fabregas 2.40 (WIG)
- Anelka 2.50 (bol)
- Gyan 2.50 (blp)
- Anichebe 2.50 (whm)
- Beckford 2.50 (whm)
Paddy predicts goals galore this week with short prices filling half of the Anytime Goalscorer table. None shorter however than the erratic Wayne Rooney, who, despite netting only two goals in his 897 mintues, tops the odds here. Robin Van Persie looks a much stronger prospect, with 2 goals in the last league fixture and one in the cup, the Dutchman looks to be firing on all cylinders again and has Wigan in his sights.
Rooney and RVP’s understudies come next, still very much odds on, and with perhaps greater justifcation. Berbatov and Chamakh have 21 goals between them this season, belittling that of Rooney and RVP who have only mustered 5. It seems then that Paddy’s odds this week are not based entirely on statistics, but on where the money is going, certainly when it comes to Rooney.
Further down the list we see Nasri edge in at even money, perhaps a little shorter than deserved as Fabregas’s return to the Arsenal line-up as playmaker has doused the French midfielder’s flame somewhat. Torres, Tevez and Drogba predicatbly are in and around the action as per usual, none really offering value for money in betting terms, but at least one will likely feature in our Fantasy squads this weekend. Saha still looks out of place at 2.30, but I did highlight the same just prior to the Tottenham match and he scored his first of the season from a great strike in the opening minutes. Walcott seems great value as he has scored once every 100 minutes or so of match time he’s getting. If he plays the 90, add a few for injury time, he seems a very strong option. Beckford for Everton at home to West Ham also looks decent value at 2.50.
Finally, you’ll notice that Darren Bent is missing from the list – he’s way out at 2.87 for a debut goal for Villa against City – interesting. If you fancy Bent to score, check out Paddy’s Money Back Special this week.
Paddy’s Scout Specials
Our Clean Sheet Accumulator this week offers odds of 7/1 on clean sheets for United, Everton and Fulham over the weekend matches. If you’d rather back goals you can look to the Scout Picks Special. Here you can get odds of 10/1 on Samir Nasri, Wayne Rooney and Clint Dempsey all notching one or more goals in their weekend fixtures.
Paddy’s Money Back Special
As mentioned, Darren Bent is the focus of the Money Back Special. If Darren Bent scores the last goal in the match against City, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match.
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