jesus christ!

I have no idea how I'm going to last two weeks without pressing that transfer button. I want that ugly guy in my team NOW

Probably the best transfer on here was mine of Perch>Luiz 🙂

me too but I'm not happy about it....

Berba for RVP and Nasri for Bale and Malouda for Lampard

That's a good score mate. Luiz and adam were the difference this week and you had them both.

good effort mate 🙂

wowww, jealous 🙁 nearly double my score this week, absolute joke

I just got him in and I am doubting my decision. I think he could be rotated with the CL fixtures. I might get rid to free up funds for Luiz

he nearly scored a cracker though! I'm thinking about getting Defoe as my third striker though, bit risky...

richardson i think

It'll be gyan, definately.

Saurez - if he's fit. Quite like the look of Pools fixtures.

Bent - tap in striker
Suarez - class
Gyan - great fixtures, average team.

If the cash is not an issue than it is Suarez, other wise Gyan.

Where can you see who you're against?

That's the transfer I'd already done before the chelsea match yesterday.

I am in the same boat and I think I am gonna wait one more GW. He owes me one goal for my team. He scored twice in Uefa he needs to do it in the PL. Luiz is gonna get red soon. And for him what is the rule? He will miss game after 5 yellows or 10? It is not fair if he can count to 10 IMO. Anybody knows?

P.S. Against Stoke I don't fancy our chances for a CS that much. Sun full of injuries. That is the case at the moment.

Top notch maths.

thanks mate, i saw the football at the weekend too.

If they both won, they haven't really moved 7 points behind. They're still 7 points behind.

+ 1.

johnfinlay is still adjusting in the scout team. Give him time 😉

D) Arteta > Adam
Berba > RVP

If you can afford that mate its what i'd do. then get rid of tevez the following week.

I first heard that in about 1983...........

and? 😉

not much in that, if your chasing points goal Bale.

none

Until Spurs start scoring again, they're both a waste of time! I will go for Bale I think - VDV looks like he's carrying knocks and can't last the 90. I thought back when he signed that he would be injury prone - I wonder if that's why Real let him go for so little.

Nice read.

"The manager will die on the bench,' he declares with a broad smile. 'It is his destiny." is a bit sinister though

Check FAQ

I'm keeping Berbatov for one more week, as he's retired from internationals and so will be rested for the next GW. That doesn't mean that Fergie will pick him, but still.

I have had Kolarov for ages and I don't think he is any good.....but I live in hope......Berba went I long time ago.......

Huth to Luiz is madness Huth has more goals in him before the season is over,that is a mega knee jerk,dump lolorov

I would chose cashley over luiz but i cant afford it. like you say rotation risk with luiz and hes a bit irratic. Im still gonna get him in though

Why oh why would luiz be rotated?! He's been awesome since he came in and can't play in cl so no need to rest!

My personal opinion on this Luiz rotation situation is he can't play in the champions league so why rest him? Look at how well he's played and how much he cost.

Alex is back but u would think he would play in the champions league with Terry and probably Ivanovic at RB who is much better in every way than Bosingwa. Alex may play the odd Prem game but it could be for Terry as I'm sure Carlo said he might not play every game now.

In summary IMO Luiz is pretty safe to play every game in the Prem.

Both of them for me. No Luiz with this kind of game won't get rotated. ANd he is not eligible for CL.

Welcome aboard. Mate the rule is like this:

"We, the FPL towers, are gonna protect the players that u have and will let the players that u need rising all the time. This isn't any rule we just want to f.. with you and made a balance in the game. On the Christmas eve dinner we made a bet between our self - can we protect RVP from Christmas to Christmas? Everybody laughed and this is how we are having fan at work. We can not just play by the rules and simply update the game. Come on, we are human after all. P.s. Wait to see what we are preparing with the Fat Adam 🙂 🙂 (chuckle) "

This is a very old post now. It contains one complicated and obscure error that I found later. For all I know the system may now be very different. But for what it's worth I'll wheel it out again:

Many experienced players will be trying to build their team value, especially in this early part of the season. If you pick the cheapest possible squad it costs you £64m leaving you £36m to spend as you choose. If you can increase your squad value to £104m (using selling prices) you have increased your spending power by over 10% for the latter part of the season. In a few months you will see many players with team values of £106m-£108m and more. If you're drifting along on £100.5m don't be surprised if these people forge ahead of you in the
second half of the season.

It's important to note that you only get half of your profit when you sell a player and odd numbers are rounded down. The kind FPL organisers let you keep all your losses though.

Let's keep the numbers simple. If 1.5m people are playing the game at the start of the season and a player is owned by 33% of teams, he has 500,000 owners. As people buy and sell him his price may change.

You have to look at purchases minus sales. This is called "net
transfers in" (NTI). There is a "rise threshold" of 25,000 NTI and a "drop threshold" of 10%.

This means that our player's price will not change so long as his ownership remains within the band 450,000-525,000. If 20,000 people buy him in the first week his ownership is 520,000 and his price will not change. If 60,000 people sell him the next week his ownership is now 460,000 and his price will still not change. This will continue until his ownership busts out of this range.

So you can see that his NTI is not reset at the end of the gameweek. Because of this it is not enough to look at "transfers in (gameweek)" (except for the first week of the season).

Thankfully, there is a guy called Diamondplus on the FISO site who does this for us. He downloads transfer statistics from the FPL site and estimates when prices will change. If you check at the bottom of this page, there is a link to his site called "FPL Values - Crack The Code" (CTC).

Now let's go back to the start of the season. Let's say 20,000 people buy our player in the first week. His price does not change. Then on Saturday at the start of the second week he scores 2 goals and 10,000 people buy him. He is now over the rise threshold. Still his price will not rise on Saturday evening. But we know for certain that it will rise in the overnight update. This is 12.30am BST Sunday morning, or within 2-3 hours of that time. They don't always update
at the same time but you need to act by 12.30am to be certain of
getting your transfer done. (WARNING: I'm uncertain whether this will switch to 12.30am GMT when the clocks change).

Now you'll notice that after the update our player has 530,000 owners. His rise threshold and fall threshold are now recalculated. His price will rise at 530,000+25,000 and his price will fall at 530,000-53,000. Our new band is 477,000-555,000. So long as his ownership remains within this range his price will not change.

Alert readers will have noted that we had 5,000 more transfers than we needed for our price rise. These 5,000 transfers are "lost to the market". In other words they do not count towards the next price rise. This isn't tremendously important but it often confuses people when a player is bought heavily and lots of transfers-in are lost in this way.

Back to the start of the season again. Let's assume there are no midweek matches. Our man scores a hat-trick and the Mongol Hordes buy in their droves. 15,000 on Saturday and 15,000 on Sunday. His price rises overnight. 5,000 transfers are lost to the market. For a second price rise in the SAME gameweek his rise threshold will be 25,000*2=50,000. His ownership will need to rise to 580,000. The buying continues through the week but at a slower rate. By Friday night his ownership has reached 570,000 so on Saturday morning his price has not risen for a second time.

But something happens on Saturday morning to upset our calculations. At 11.30am BST we have the start of a new gameweek. This means that the rise threshold is reset. Our hat-trick hero hasn't had a price-rise in this new gameweek so his rise threshold will be 25,000*1=25,000 and his price will rise when he gets 530,000+25,000=555,000 owners. But he already has 570,000 owners so his price is pretty much guaranteed to rise unless he breaks his leg and he is heavily sold on Saturday. This has important implications
for dedicated and alert FPL players.

If you are buying a player on a Saturday you can sometimes get a
"free" price rise this way. This is important because some of the players you buy will do well and others will do badly. If you get a "free" price rise it will take 2 price falls before you lose money.

Now look at the CTC site. Click the "Rises" tab. Here we can see the actual rise threshold is estimated at 25,425. This is likely to fall through the season as people give up the game and the overall number of transfers decreases. As I write this Darren Bent is 127% so his price will rise tonight. Mark Noble is 98% but this data was collected at 6.00pm so, because people are buying him, it's probable that his price will rise as well. Wayne Rooney is next in line. He needs about 3,500 more buyers for a price rise.

This means that when you are thinking about who to buy you can look at CTC and, if you want to, you can pick somebody who is close to a price increase. Even if his price doesn't go up, he'll be that much further from a price fall than most other players.

Now click the "Drops" tab. Various players look like they are going to drop in price tonight. If you are thinking of buying one of these players tonight you might want to hold-off until his price drops and you can get him cheaper.

Back to our example. The second Saturday of the season. Our
wonderfully gifted superstar breaks his leg and the Mongol Hordes start to sell. Remember his ownership is 570,000 and his newly calculated "stable-price band" is 477,000-555,000.

(n.b. Even though he is being sold, if his ownership remains above 555,000 on Saturday night his price will still increase. This is likely to be a freak situation though and of little practical relevance).

Now let's assume that everybody at FPL Towers is out on the lash all weekend and don't drag themselves into the office until Monday morning. Bleary-eyed they check if the bonus points have been messed up yet again and start to trawl through the official club websites for injury news. About lunchtime they become the last people in Britain to notice that the winker has broken his leg. They flag him as injured and run their "mini-update" when they get round to it. All
this is important because there is often a delay between a player getting injured and FPL getting round to red-flagging him.

Now remember that our hero was owned by 570,000 teams when he had his "accident" and needs to drop below 477,000 before his price goes down. The Mongol Hordes also go out on the lash, but by Sunday night there will have been lots of sales. Let's examine 2 scenarios:

(A) His ownership on Sunday night is 500,000. This is not enough to trigger a price drop. On Monday he is red-flagged and his drop threshold becomes 22.5% instead of 10% which is 530,000-22.5%=411,000. Now his stable-price band is 411,000-555,000 instead of 477,000-555,000. So you can see that his price can still go down but it takes many more sales to reach the drop threshold. This is how the system is supposed to work. (We will talk about a player who comes
back from injury below).

(n.b. 70,000 people have sold our player and his ownership is 500,000 so many people will expect his price to fall because 70,000 seems to be above 10% of owners. You'll see their posts on this site. That's another reason you need to use CTC.)

But it's only Monday. SELL, SELL, SELL. By Wednesday ownership is down to 400,000 and there is a price fall despite the red flag. We calculate a new drop threshold as 400,000-(22.5%*2). So our stable-price band is 220,000-425,000. Wow, look at the huge number of sales we need for a second price decrease that same week. A second price fall is always going to be unlikely for a flagged player because
there are always loads of players who don't actually care. Watch out for next week though. The band will change to 310,000-425,000.

(B) His ownership on Sunday night is 450,000. This is sufficient to trigger a price drop because FPL Towers have been tardy in red-flagging the player. This happens quite a lot and it's very important to pay attention otherwise you will be the victim of the price drop. Remember that a players' ownership may have been just above the drop threshold in the first-place. My example is one extreme where many sales are needed for a price drop. Sometimes it doesn't take many sales for an unflagged player to drop in price.

When a player returns from injury something new and very confusing happens. His price is protected for 7 days??? After that NTI is reset??? This causes repeated chaos on this site so let's continue our example:

It was a simple leg-break and our superstar (Chris) plays his first match 10 weeks later on a Saturday. He still has 250,000 owners. What's more he scores and people start buying. Will his price increase? Well that's a good question. Sometimes FPL Towers will have realised that he's back in training and will have unflagged him. Other times information is scarce or non-existent, he is still flagged until Monday lunchtime. Basically I'm a bit confused about whether or
not his price can change if he's returned to action whilst still
flagged.

So let's just look at the system as it's supposed to work. Once our hero is unflagged his price is frozen for 7 days. So the flood of buyers for our returning superhero matters not one jot. None of these transfers count towards a price increase. Unfortunately the CTC site can't seem to give us this information in a way that I understand (maybe I've not tried hard enough) so it will show a player 200% towards a price rise and yet his price doesn't change. (n.b. I could
talk about this problem in more detail but I think it's beyond the scope of this post). If at the end of the 7 days ownership is 300,000 we calculate the rise and drop threshold as normal and his price will then behave normally.

Well if anyone got to the end of all that let me know if you think I made a mistake. It was a bit of work so I may post it again at some point especially if I can improve it. If you're new to all this it might be an idea to save it. Cheers.

See above.

1. FAQ
2. For now yes but fixtures are still to be reschuled wait and see.

1) FAQ
2) Arsenal also

+1 I was going to say that.

I reckon he'l be about 6.0

I'm sure your not alone in thinkin that! He is a bit of nut job tho and isn't he only on loan or have they bought him?

remind me of that next season? I'll forget stuff like that.

Depends, he might make a transfer in the summer.

Small warning on Taraabt...when things aren't going well for him, he disappears out of the game. This is likely to happen a lot more often in the Prem than the Champ.

congrats on linking your team 😉 you are more official now 😛

as for bale, I'm not so sure...

I cant tell you how many months I have been saying that about Nando,its really shocking a player of his potential is out of form for so long and not getting a drop of luck