The Weekend Team News

FPL GW35 Scout Picks - Final Selection

Raya Martin

Bogle
Hill
Gabriel Magalhães
O’Reilly

Cherki
Eze
Bruno Fernandes

Haaland
Thiago
Calvert-Lewin

Darlow
Ballard
Fernández
Tavernier

GW35 Captain Poll

Price Change Predictions

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Sarr	CRY	6.3m	99.1%	Likely
Gibbs-White	NFO	7.6m	99.1%	Likely
Lacroix	CRY	5.1m	99.1%	Likely
Aaronson	LEE	5.4m	99.2%	Maybe
Cherki	MCI	6.5m	90.6%	Maybe
Isak	LIV	10.3m	95.7%	Maybe
Groß	BHA	5.5m	90.8%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	92.1%	Unlikely
Leno	FUL	4.9m	77.3%	Unlikely
Saliba	ARS	6.1m	69.5%	Unlikely
Alderete	SUN	4.1m	67.0%	Unlikely
Gakpo	LIV	7.3m	65.7%	Unlikely
Aït-Nouri	MCI	5.7m	65.3%	Unlikely
Truffert	BOU	4.7m	63.9%	Unlikely
Richards	CRY	4.4m	62.5%	Unlikely
Ngumoha	LIV	4.3m	61.8%	Unlikely
Verbruggen	BHA	4.5m	59.0%	Unlikely
Ndiaye	EVE	6.2m	60.0%	Unlikely
Tavernier	BOU	5.4m	59.9%	Unlikely
Brobbey	SUN	5.3m	59.2%	Unlikely
Wan-Bissaka	WHU	4.1m	58.1%	Unlikely
F.Kadıoğlu	BHA	4.4m	55.7%	Unlikely
Frimpong	LIV	5.7m	56.2%	Unlikely
Shaw	MUN	4.5m	55.7%	Unlikely
Bijol	LEE	3.9m	50.0%	Unlikely
Ødegaard	ARS	7.8m	49.6%	Unlikely
Hermansen	WHU	4.2m	49.4%	Unlikely
N.Williams	NFO	4.8m	49.2%	Unlikely
Aina	NFO	4.7m	46.9%	Unlikely
Gabriel	ARS	7.2m	43.7%	Unlikely
Haaland	MCI	14.6m	37.5%	Unlikely
Beto	EVE	5.0m	43.0%	Unlikely
Hincapie	ARS	5.1m	42.1%	Unlikely
M.Fernandes	WHU	5.5m	42.1%	Unlikely
Damsgaard	BRE	5.6m	41.3%	Unlikely
Bassey	FUL	4.4m	40.7%	Unlikely
Roefs	SUN	4.8m	41.7%	Unlikely
Gomez	BHA	4.9m	40.1%	Unlikely
Dowman	ARS	4.2m	37.9%	Unlikely
Minteh	BHA	5.5m	37.1%	Unlikely

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Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Palmer	CHE	10.5m	100.0%	Very Likely
Salmon	ARS	4.0m	100.0%	Very Likely
Merino	ARS	5.4m	99.9%	Maybe
Mayenda	SUN	5.2m	98.5%	Maybe
McAidoo	MCI	4.5m	96.3%	Maybe
Tchaouna	BUR	4.8m	96.2%	Maybe
Reijnders	MCI	5.0m	92.9%	Unlikely
Piroe	LEE	4.9m	92.2%	Unlikely
Slonina	CHE	3.9m	91.7%	Unlikely
Emenalo	CHE	4.5m	90.5%	Unlikely
Calafiori	ARS	5.6m	90.2%	Unlikely
John	NFO	4.0m	89.6%	Unlikely
Strand Larsen	CRY	5.9m	90.6%	Unlikely
Cullen	BUR	4.9m	89.5%	Unlikely
Grealish	EVE	6.3m	89.5%	Unlikely
Andrey Santos	CHE	4.5m	88.0%	Unlikely
Estève	BUR	3.9m	85.6%	Unlikely
Trafford	MCI	4.5m	85.0%	Unlikely
Cairns	LEE	3.9m	83.2%	Unlikely
Johnson	CRY	6.5m	82.9%	Unlikely
Senesi	BOU	5.2m	77.9%	Unlikely
Sánchez	CHE	4.8m	77.7%	Unlikely
Brierley	BUR	4.5m	78.7%	Unlikely
Kilman	WHU	4.1m	77.7%	Unlikely
Gusto	CHE	4.9m	74.2%	Unlikely
Mee	MUN	3.9m	76.0%	Unlikely
Mainoo	MUN	4.7m	75.3%	Unlikely
Longstaff	LEE	4.8m	72.7%	Unlikely
Keane	EVE	4.5m	69.6%	Unlikely
Ebere	EVE	4.4m	68.4%	Unlikely
Obi	MUN	4.2m	67.6%	Unlikely
Byfield	TOT	4.0m	71.9%	Unlikely
Woltemade	NEW	6.7m	66.5%	Unlikely
Steele	BHA	4.2m	65.6%	Unlikely
Webster	BHA	4.4m	65.0%	Unlikely
Amissah	FUL	3.8m	62.3%	Unlikely
Van de Ven	TOT	4.4m	61.5%	Unlikely
Caicedo	CHE	5.7m	60.2%	Unlikely
Gonzalez	WOL	4.3m	60.2%	Unlikely
Welbeck	BHA	6.3m	65.5%	Unlikely

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FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	B, Vs
No Change	Donnarumma	MCI	B
Up	Henderson	CRY	C
No Change	Pickford	EVE	C
No Change	Verbruggen	BHA	B
No Change	Darlow	LEE	B, Vs, £
Down	Roefs	SUN	B

Last updated: 1 May, 2026 4:27pm

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Gabriel Magalhães	ARS	B, Vs
No Change	O’Reilly	MCI	A
Up	Lacroix	CRY	A
No Change	Keane	EVE	C
Up	van Hecke	BHA	B
Up	Struijk	LEE	B, Vs, £
Up	Hill	BOU	C, £
Down	Ballard	SUN	C
Down	van Dijk	LIV	A
No Change	Thiaw	NEW	C
No Change	Cash	AVL	C

Last updated: 1 May, 2026 4:31pm

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Bruno Fernandes	MUN	A
Up	Cherki	MCI	A
Up	Saka	ARS	C, Vs
No Change	Wilson	FUL	B
No Change	Ismaila Sarr	CRY	C, Rest
No Change	Rogers	AVL	B
No Change	Gibbs-White	NFO	A
No Change	Dewsbury-Hall	EVE	A, £
No Change	Palmer	CHE	C
Down	Szoboszlai	LIV	C
No Change	Tavernier	BOU	C, £
No Change	Hinshelwood	BHA	B, £

Last updated: 1 May, 2026 4:39pm

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	B
No Change	Thiago	BRE	B
No Change	Bowen	WHU	A
No Change	Watkins	AVL	A
No Change	Welbeck	BHA	B
No Change	Calvert-Lewin	LEE	C, Vs
No Change	João Pedro	CHE	C
Up	Isak	LIV	B

Last updated: 1 May, 2026 4:43pm

GW35 Chip Poll

[sbu_large_image] Team News

26 August 2011 1582 comments

Mark

Alex Ferguson faces selection headache up front. Wenger welcomes back Laurent Koscielny but is losing sleep over Thomas Vermaelen’s ankle knock. Roberto Mancini and Andre Villas-Boas contemplate throwing their new signings into the mix. Kenny Dalglish set to rekindle the Suarez/Carroll partnership against Bolton. Harry Redknapp adamant that Luka Modric will line up against City as the Croatian sorts his hamstring and his future at Spurs.

A reminder that these nuggets from around the Premier League grounds – all the team news leading into the weekend – is being collated and compiled for you via our team news section. Noteworthy additions are being flagged via our Twitter feed as usual.

1,582 Comments Login to Post a Comment

SuarezSaurusRex
14 years, 8 months ago
Vorm or Given?
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1. Connor's Calling
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Given...
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Connor's Calling
14 years, 8 months ago
Start O'hara, Y.Toure or Kompany please?
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1. Addicted to transfers
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Only 1 of those 3? Yaya Toure. 2? O'Hara as well.
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Be
14 years, 8 months ago
Any thoughts on Modric over VDV GW4 onwards?
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1. J0E
  14 years, 8 months ago
  steer clear. He is fantasy poison. Lovely player but not great FPL scorer. May get some bonus, but he is often the guy who assists the guy who assists the guy who scores.
  
  Also this season he is in a team he doesn't want to play for. If he's anything like i was when i found myself temping at Legal and General one summer then he will not perform very well.
  
  In conclusion.. VDV is a great choice, but with less great fixtures than the likes of Silva, Modric is dirt.
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Fidacha
14 years, 8 months ago
Kompany(Tottenham Away), Simpson(Fulham Home), Hughes(Newcastle Away), Taarabt(Wigan Away), Sessegnon(Swansea Away), Moses(QPR Home)
Need 2 on the bench out of these guys.
Will Moses play 90min with that knock?
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1. breakballartist
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Whats ur team if you're benching some of those??
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⭐ ABHISHEK - THE CURIOUS …
14 years, 8 months ago
http://www.football365.co.za/story/0,22162,14287_7126473,00.html
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1. ⭐ ABHISHEK - THE CURIOUS …
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Nasri eyes City debut v Spurs
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harmonica
14 years, 8 months ago
Vorm over Schwarzer for a second week running?
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1. Addicted to transfers
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Definitely.
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  1. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
    14 years, 8 months ago
    Yup
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Gdr
14 years, 8 months ago
Malouda or VDV?!
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1. andy85wsm
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Don't fancy either but given his role in set plays, on pens, and guaranteed starter it has to be VDV
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  1. Cannon
    14 years, 8 months ago
    VDV, especially now that Mata might impact on Malouda's gametime.
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    1. breakballartist
      14 years, 8 months ago
      VDV all day...
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2. User
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Malouda for this fixture, VDV longer term.
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andy85wsm
14 years, 8 months ago
Going out tonight, can't wait to come on tomorrow and tell CFCtom about all the drunken transfers I made and how my week is going terrible in FPL just because I got drunk.
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Cannon
14 years, 8 months ago
Is Yaya Toure likely to get forward as much now Nasri is at City? 8m is alot if he's only going to be a DM from now on. Whats everyones thoughts??
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Macca_
14 years, 8 months ago
Is it too far out there to captain Bosingwa this week (clean sheet and attack threat)....

Just about settled on this -

Given (Al-Habsi)
Bosingwa (c), R Taylor, Jagielka (Smalling, Richards)
Silva, Sessegnon, N'Zogbia, Moses, Taarabt
Bent, Torres (Johnson)
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1. HuttonDressedasLahm
  14 years, 8 months ago
  I would say dodgy, but actually not that high on (c) options, so could be a winner??
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Gandalf
14 years, 8 months ago
Hi, any advice on improving this team?
.........Al Habsi

Simpson...Huth.....Bosingwa

Mikel....Jarvis.. Brunt...Silva

......Suarez(c)...Bent...Aguero

subs: Given, Tiote, G.Cahill, Hughes
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1. Cruicky
  14 years, 8 months ago
  looks fine.
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2. RMT's Professor
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Good team, I'd assess Bosingwa after this week- he could well lose his place in the long run but may not if he plays well so keep an eye on that one. Mikel and Tiote are weak fantasy players (don't get involved in attacks and Tiote can get yellow cards easily) but not an immediate problem at the moment- maybe wait until a wildcard to shift them. Otherwise, team is very good. Good captain choice too.
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harmonica
14 years, 8 months ago
O'Hara or Kompany to play, pretty close I reckon

Kompany cleansheet 2/1
O'Hara goal 5/1
add in assists etc. and I edge towards O'Hara?
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1. andy85wsm
  14 years, 8 months ago
  I'd always play the midfielder, however which defenders are you playing instead of Kompany?
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  1. harmonica
    14 years, 8 months ago
    Kompany is definitely 4th most likely to keep a cleansheet and 4th most likely to get attacking points. But agreed, midfielder over 4th defender in this case I think
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2. J0E
  14 years, 8 months ago
  always go for the mid or striker over a defender. Kompany is 6pts maximum. Ohara is anywhere between 2 and 15.
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3. Chris_White
  14 years, 8 months ago
  O'hara def
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4. OldHarrington
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Off topic- can you get odds for scoring on this site anywhere?
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  1. J0E
    14 years, 8 months ago
    totalfpl has it.
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Demí
14 years, 8 months ago
Wigan close to signing Johan Cruyff's nephew, Jessua Andrea Cruyff
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1. andy85wsm
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Won't be anywhere near as good as Jordi
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2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
  14 years, 8 months ago
  But can he do a Cruyff turn at pace? 🙂
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  1. Demí
    14 years, 8 months ago
    I hope so 🙂
    
    although, he is a Left back
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3. reply fail
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Any better than Jordi?
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rohan
14 years, 8 months ago
who should i captain??? rooney or suarez or adam???
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1. Call Me Old Fashioned
  14 years, 8 months ago
  NOT adam. Rooney or Suarez, flip a coin..
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Call Me Old Fashioned
14 years, 8 months ago
Team this week:
Given (Vorm)
A.Cole, Kompany, Simpson (Hughes, De Laet)
Moses, N'Zogbia, Yaya, Tarrabt(v) (Surman)
Aguero, Torres, Suarez(C)

1.5 in bank.

Given or Vorm? Sitting tight for this week, Brunt and RVP/Bent/Hernandez in GW4.
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1. rohan
  14 years, 8 months ago
  given
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adam1383
14 years, 8 months ago
team is
given
simpson baines enrique cole
moses brunt silva
graham torres bent

bego nzogbia kompany cleverley

have i gt my subs right and also have my transfer left??
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1. Mulder
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Don't bench Nzgobia! Rather bench Simpson then.
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  1. rohan
    14 years, 8 months ago
    i would rarther suggest to bench moses than nzogbia.. moses may not start
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Fratboy
14 years, 8 months ago
"West Ham confirm they are in talks with Tottenham about the possible sale of Scott Parker"

Crazy, I guess he'll come in at 9.5 as well...
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1. Declan
  14 years, 8 months ago
  8m
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  1. Fratboy
    14 years, 8 months ago
    was a joke....
    
    I reckon about 8 too
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  2. Shipstontrev
    14 years, 8 months ago
    Will they swap him for the Olympic Stadium?
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    1. FPL Daniel
      14 years, 8 months ago
      If they sign Parker than Modric is on his way
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beachsherrill
14 years, 8 months ago
Thoughts on when this weeks Podcast will be available?
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1. ManofKent
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Don't think there will be one. I'm sulking...
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2. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
  14 years, 8 months ago
  They're not done everyweek. Andy said that Granville's been in Manchester next wek, so they'll have to dry him out first.
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  1. The Stock
    14 years, 8 months ago
    *United fan actually in Manchester alert*
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    1. Fratboy
      14 years, 8 months ago
      *waves from manchester*
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      1. The Stock
        14 years, 8 months ago
        There's 2!!!!??? 🙂
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        Fratboy
        14 years, 8 months ago
        A*se hole 😛
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        The Stock
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Excellent early season scoring btw.
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        Fratboy
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Thanks 🙂
        
        If I hit 200 this weekend I think I'll be shunned on here hahaha.
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        Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Yes, well ... from a Citeh fan in the heart of the West End ... 😉
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        The Stock
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Doos, what have I told you about breaking my cover? 😉
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        Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
        14 years, 8 months ago
        😆 I have put up "Wanted" posters in all the restaurants I can think of! 😀
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    2. andy85wsm
      14 years, 8 months ago
      I'd be angry at this comment, if I wasn't sitting in my bedroom in the South West of England 🙂
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      1. The Stock
        14 years, 8 months ago
        I think that's my point...erm....proven.
        
        Disregard Doosra's comments too! 🙂
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Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
14 years, 8 months ago
To all those people who have Moses, this is his plea to the Lord:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP5EfwBWgg0

😉
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SuarezSaurusRex
14 years, 8 months ago
guys, rite now im leaning towards bosingwa for C. what do u think?
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1. J0E
  14 years, 8 months ago
  never captain a defender. Rarely pays off.
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  1. J0E
    14 years, 8 months ago
    those in my minileague who always do badly frequently captain defenders...there's a link there.
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2. andy85wsm
  14 years, 8 months ago
  The only defender I'd ever considering captaining is Baines, and for that too happen I'd have to be confident he was on pens.
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  1. J0E
    14 years, 8 months ago
    I'd consider baines as captain for a double game week. I still have fond memories of that Vidic 42 pt double game week captaincy a couple of years ago.
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arfa
14 years, 8 months ago
WazzaMataNani.....just using my time constuctively over a friday pint

anyone else got this team name or heard it on here yet?
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1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Nope. 🙂
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2. Shipstontrev
  14 years, 8 months ago
  I quite liked the name Shakhtar Senseless...
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  1. arfa
    14 years, 8 months ago
    im having thateam name then..good score last GW merry,im having a shocker 🙁
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    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
      14 years, 8 months ago
      Sorry, arfa - but you are too good a player not to come zooming back. 🙂 I just got lucky!
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      1. arfa
        14 years, 8 months ago
        i hope so mate......its a marathon and all that jazz,go and win the thing man!
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        Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Cheers very much, arfa. 😀
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3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Nani, WazzaMata reads a little better, I think ... 🙂
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  1. arfa
    14 years, 8 months ago
    i agree,cheers merry
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  2. Fratboy
    14 years, 8 months ago
    +1
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    1. arfa
      14 years, 8 months ago
      that settles it then,cheers FB
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Screaming Midget
14 years, 8 months ago
If Saha is out, which would you suggest:

A: Saha > Long
B: Keep Saha and instead play Senderos (newcastle Away)
C: Keep Saha and instead play Kompany (tot Away)
D: Something else (please state)
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1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Saha to Fletcher, imo ...
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  1. Screaming Midget
    14 years, 8 months ago
    I'm opting for Jarvis for GW4
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    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
      14 years, 8 months ago
      Can you not have both? Five home matches in eight.
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rohan
14 years, 8 months ago
IS LUIS SUAREZ A GUARANTEED STARTER AGAINST BOLTON..???
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1. MJ6987
  14 years, 8 months ago
  No. Chances of starting:
  
  RVP 95%
  Bent 95%
  Rooney 90%
  Suarez 70%
  Aguero 70%
  Torres 60%
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  1. andy85wsm
    14 years, 8 months ago
    Rooney is 100% fo sho, as is Bent.
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    1. rohan
      14 years, 8 months ago
      so rooney or suarez??? as my captain????
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    2. Jonah
      14 years, 8 months ago
      I think 100% must be a figure of speech in these cases.
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  2. Fratboy
    14 years, 8 months ago
    Lol those stats are terrible
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    1. MJ6987
      14 years, 8 months ago
      Which ones do you disagree with?
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      1. andy85wsm
        14 years, 8 months ago
        http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2011/08/26/the-weekend-team-news-46/comment-page-3/#comment-1927817
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      2. Fratboy
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Rooney, Bent, RVP
        
        I guess the other ones seem about right to be fair
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    2. Brian (Not the Messiah)
      14 years, 8 months ago
      Surely these are from a betting site?
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2. snowman
  14 years, 8 months ago
  yes
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beachsherrill
14 years, 8 months ago
S'pose I shouldn't complain, since it's free advice/entertainment. Might not stop us from doing so... 🙂
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The Finnisher
14 years, 8 months ago
I've decided against picking Mata this week, VDV gets a run instead, worse case scenario Mata scores well and VDV blows and i get him, Walcott or even Nasri next GW, best case scenario, Mata plays 15 minutes, scores 1 point and VDV and Tottenham fire at home
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1. rohan
  14 years, 8 months ago
  do you think vdv will be as successful as last season???
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Declan
14 years, 8 months ago
Correct Subs for this GW?

Schwarzer
Enrique Bosingwa Warnock
Silva Moses Osman Lampard(C)
Bent Carroll Long

Vorm Simpson Kompany Surman
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1. FPL Daniel
  14 years, 8 months ago
  I love your captain choice. Looks good. Rethink about the goalies
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Brian (Not the Messiah)
14 years, 8 months ago
People who were having a go at someone saying United are due a penalty aren't really thinking. If a team gets on average 1 penalties per x amount of games of course if they've taken longer than x number of games for a penalty they become more likely to get it. You would be really stupid to ignore statistics like this. The only problem with a stat like this is of course that some players are more likely to get penalties and some teams are more likely to give penalties away. So to get a true reflection of the odds you need to take many things into account but this is not to say a simple average isn't good enough for our thinking.

I guess a bigger question is - how many penalties do Arsenal give away on average vs how many penalties United get on average.

An interesting stat is that a player who scores a hat trick in a game is extremely unlikely to score in the next game.
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1. Stat virgin
  14 years, 8 months ago
  "If a team gets on average 1 penalties per x amount of games of course if they’ve taken longer than x number of games for a penalty they become more likely to get it. You would be really stupid to ignore statistics like this."
  
  Surely this is a joke?
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  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    14 years, 8 months ago
    how do they work out the odds for betting sammy?
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    1. Stat virgin
      14 years, 8 months ago
      I don't know, but it's not using that logic.
      
      If you flip a coin there's a 50% chance of getting heads.
      
      Even if you flipped it 1000000 times and got 1000000 heads in a row, the next flip is still 50% chance of getting heads. The universe doesn't intervene to make sure that the coin averages out heads and tails
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      1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
        14 years, 8 months ago
        see my comment on coin flips below. it would average out to close to 50% each for a given number of flips due to the odds being 50:50.
        
        you only have to look at what % of boys and girls are born to see this.
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      2. MrJefferson
        14 years, 8 months ago
        its actually not,theres a very slight increase in chance of the side of the coin that is facing up before you toss it...u learn something new everyday
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        Brian (Not the Messiah)
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Now I know!
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2. The Bandit
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Forget the stats, Howard Webb is in charge. Nuff said.
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  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    14 years, 8 months ago
    another stat - number of games Mr webb has given penalties to united at OT
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    1. King Eric, in America
      14 years, 8 months ago
      A common ABU refrain, that (not that I'm inferring BobsUncle say it for this reason) ...
      
      But the stats should be analyzed: it could very well be a number of factors that shift Utd's likelihood of PKs > they play a counterattack game, sending many balls into the area, they continue with the attack even if up by several goals (maybe defenders get cynical to a greater degree), maybe Webb calls the game pretty loose - making players think they can get away with more - until a foul occurs in the area, etc.
      
      Yes, even Webb being biased or the 80,000 fans may factor into this, as well. But the analysis is rarely done - just a 'Utd always get PKs, something's rotten'
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3. andy85wsm
  14 years, 8 months ago
  If I remember right, last season Arsenal gave away the highest or joint highest number of penalties last season (at least up to a point). And Utd always get penalties at home so naturally ROoney will 100% get a penalty on Sunday.
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  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    14 years, 8 months ago
    Im not sure he was asking about 100% nothing is ever 100% - like Rooney starting isn't 100% there is a 5% chance he'll get injured or something before the game.
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4. King Eric, in America
  14 years, 8 months ago
  I'm not much for 'maths', but it seems to me 'odds' are different from 'probability'
  
  If you flip a coin 3 times, and it comes up heads 3 times ... the probability that heads will come up again is still 50%. Odds may suggest that that is unlikely to happen, ergo they are not the same thing.
  
  A hat trick has an extremely low probability in the first place - but the fact that other teams will focus on that player shifts the probability of a hatty. The simple fact that a hat was scored previous, though, has no effect.
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  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    14 years, 8 months ago
    you can always look at the given probability for each event separately. flipping a coin is different because there are only 2 outcomes with no outside factors (unless someone has learnt how to flip the side they want)
    
    however when a trend emerges - Mr Howard webb gives loads of penalties for example, then you would be silly to write it off as chance.
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    1. King Eric, in America
      14 years, 8 months ago
      True, but then it's the referee of a particular game that shifts the probability, not the previous number of games without a PK.
      
      It would be analogous to, say, weighting one side of the coin (Webb's supposed proclivity to awarding PKs).
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      1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
        14 years, 8 months ago
        previous number of games also shifts the probability. unless the environment has changed to affect the probability.
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    2. Stat virgin
      14 years, 8 months ago
      Yes, there are factors which make a penalty more likely, eg, Utd have more possession, Utd being at home (pressure on the ref oooh contraversial), Utd having tricky wingers against lumbering centre backs. Those are all fine to take into account if you want.
      
      Saying that they haven't had a penalty for a while therefore probability/averages dictate that they are more likely to next match is just 100% categorically incorrect ceteris paribus
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      1. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
        14 years, 8 months ago
        or maybe we're just really stupid.
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      2. applebonkers
        14 years, 8 months ago
        amen
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5. MJ6987
  14 years, 8 months ago
  If you flip a coin 100 times and get 100 heads, it doesn't mean you are "due a tail". The next time you flip the odds are still 50:50.
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  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    14 years, 8 months ago
    flipping a coin will always have 50:50 odds agreed. However I'm sure over time you would see that 50% of the flips end up as tails and 50% end up as heads.
    
    like in most countries the number of boys born and the number of girls born is normally close to 50 each. this is not a coincidence.
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    1. Scroobius Mac
      14 years, 8 months ago
      It's close to 50:50 in most species because when it drifts away from 50:50 it becomes advantageous to be in the minority therefore the minority then become the majority and the cycle oscillates pretty close to 50:50 (In most species).
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    2. Marknlard
      14 years, 8 months ago
      This is the flaw in your argument, bobsuncle. If Man Utd play a gazillion matches (however many kids are born in India each year) then you can say that they should have x number of penalties. But the number of home games in a season is too small a sample.
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      1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
        14 years, 8 months ago
        true about the sample size... point taken.
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  2. reply fail
    14 years, 8 months ago
    So Torres is due to a hattrick, right?
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    1. King Eric, in America
      14 years, 8 months ago
      10 games ago 😀
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      1. reply fail
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Damn, I'm too late.
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    2. Marknlard
      14 years, 8 months ago
      Someone used EXACTLY THIS ARGUMENT last season to say that Shawcross was due a goal as he hadn't scored that season but had 4 or whatever the year before. One goal every 8 games and it had been more than 8 since he'd scored therefore he was due.
      
      It was a bollocks argument then and it's a bollocks argument now.
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      1. reply fail
        14 years, 8 months ago
        Ehm, that was kind of a joke.
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6. Scroobius Mac
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Basic misunderstanding of statistics and how odds work drives me up the wall. Say united have a 1/8 chance of gaining a penalty in any given match. Even say because Webb is the ref this odd rises to 1/5 in matches Webb officiates that united gain a penalty. To say that it becomes more likely would make the assumption that either
  a) Referees look back and go "Hang on thats not fair it's been ages since Man U have had a peno, better give em one this time"
  or
  b) Fergie goes "Come on lads its been ages since one of you has dived over and got a penalty, if you don't earn one today you're dropped".
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  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    14 years, 8 months ago
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers - however I do accept that over a short sample period it is not accurate to assume a law of averages.
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    1. Marknlard
      14 years, 8 months ago
      "You would be really stupid to ignore statistics like this."
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      1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
        14 years, 8 months ago
        that bit was a bit of trolling TBH 😉 Sorry guys! I'm wrong 😀
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7. Marknlard
  14 years, 8 months ago
  This was like a proper old school discussion before the forum exploded. Good work guys!
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oi no professionals
14 years, 8 months ago
Moses or Dyer this week?
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1. Declan
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Moses
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  1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
    14 years, 8 months ago
    See above. 😀
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  2. NED KELLY
    14 years, 8 months ago
    dyer
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Drip Doctor
14 years, 8 months ago
Man my team feels like money
Points attracted to me
They come around like honey
Cause im fly like a bee

Given
Enrique Bosingwa Kompany
Nani Moses Yaya Taarabt
Suarez(C) Bent Torres

Ruddy: Simpson Dyer Distin

Goodluck to all. That is all.
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1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
  14 years, 8 months ago
  lol
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  1. Call Me Old Fashioned
    14 years, 8 months ago
    i may just be singing that if my team does well after a shocking start
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2. NED KELLY
  14 years, 8 months ago
  looks good.. good luck
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3. King Eric, in America
  14 years, 8 months ago
  Work 'dench' into that and you have a hit!
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  1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius�…
    14 years, 8 months ago
    😆 Nice one! 😀
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Islandboy
14 years, 8 months ago
Worth dumping Torres for Bent?

Only the fact that Chelsea have Norwich at home is keeping me from doing this straight away. Have been burned too often by Torres in a Chelsea shirt so have very little faith in him. Wavering towards Bent at the moment a little.
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1. Declan
  14 years, 8 months ago
  You have to stick with him for the Norwich game imo!
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