Winter approaches and the UEFA Champions League (UCL) Fantasy Game heads into hibernation in a couple of days. For now, though, we’ve one last Watchlist to rally up ahead of Matchday Six and the closing of the group stages…
European Fantasy managers will need to have plenty of salt in reserve to sprinkle over our choices because, as warned in last week’s “Survival Guide”, things can get messy in the final round of games.
Defensive choices have proven to be notoriously tricky in the UCL format and the final Matchday hurdle will likely only make it even more difficult. Data from the last two seasons, unsurprisingly, shows that sides tend to keep less clean sheets in the final weeks as teams either go for broke or have less to worry about.
The Matchday averages of 10 clean sheets over the first five rounds of the two previous seasons (09/10 and 10/11) dropped down to 6 and 7 shut-outs respectively, in the the sixth and final game of the group stages. So, if our evidence is anything to go by, then our average of 9.6 clean sheets per Matchday this season would seem to see us with a similar drop in returns.
What we’re trying to get at here is that it is more difficult than ever to choose the stern defences this week. Our backline options, as a result, are all going to be chosen with their attacking ideals in mind, then…
Manchester United have recently shored up their defence and began to plough through the winter with single goal victories. Another 1-0 away at Basel will see Fergie’s outfit in the knockout stages and make David De Gea a sound inclusion in Fantasy squads.
David Luiz gets a spot for entertainment value as much as anything else. With a domestic suspension ruling him out of Chelsea’s tie against Man City next week and Alex somewhat ostracised from first-team matters after handing in a transfer request, we can expect to see him gallivanting goalward as Chelsea push for a win over Valencia tomorrow.
Barcelona will look to mix up their squad where they can and the relatively cheap Adriano will likely be given plenty of attacking license out wide -in the same vein as Dani Alves- for the Champions League holders. Others we’re considering include the likes of Jan Vertonghen of Ajax and Lille’s right-back Mathieu Debuchy.
A win at home to Trabzonspor will see Lille through to the knockout stages. The task before them is simple; while we’d love to add Joe Cole to the aforementioned defender, we’ll play our hand a little safer with the selection of wing wonder Eden Hazard instead.
Man City and Chelsea need to win in midweek to stand a chance of qualification- in City’s case that even that might not be enough. Given that they’ll have to go for broke, the Spanish wizardry of both David Silva and Juan Mata will be crucial in both sides’ respective efforts to remain in Europe’s top competition. With Bayern affected by a flu bug, City will fancy their chances- Arjen Robben and Toni Kroos have been left at home, while Mario Gomez and Thomas Mueller are both doubts.
We expect Real Madrid will be putting out a much changed side for their trip to Ajax tomorrow evening. At £56m on the transfer market Kaka is still the third most expensive player in the history of football and yet stands a strong chance of being one of Mourinho’s main men in this dead rubber of a fixture in Holland. Not bad if you can afford it.
The FC APOEL story has been a truly astounding one. They’re already confirmed as one of the final 16 squads in the Champions League but with an unbeaten record and a chance to top their group there’s still plenty left to play for. The comparatively cheap (just 4.7) Gustavo Manduca is our man to back in Cyprus.
With Manchester United heading to Basel needing a result of some sort it means that Fergie can’t really use this midweek to rest any of his key players. With Javier Hernandez sidelined at Aston Villa last weekend this leaves Wayne Rooney with a more secure spot than otherwise expected. With only 2 goals away to Galati in the last two and a half months it’s time our boy got back on the scoresheet.
Napoli’s victory over Manchester City has put their qualification fate in their own hands. A trip to Villarreal last season saw them knocked out of the Europa League but we envisage a different result as, this time around, they face a much poorer Villarreal side with nothing to play for. Edinson Cavani, coming off two goals at the weekend, should be the man to lead his side to victory.
Valencia likely need at least a score draw at Stamford Bridge tonight if they want to continue their Champions League adventure. Getting a goal against Chelsea these days isn’t the hardest task in the world, and we’re backing Roberto Soldado to do just that.
We’ve already stockpiled from defence and midfield, but if you’re fond of some Gallic flair, why not consider adding another player from Lille into the mix? Moussa Sow will be leading from the front and has the strongest chance of all at grabbing the goals required to see the French champions through.
If you need a budget striker, then reigning European Champions Barcelona will provide an unlikely outlet. With top spot guaranteed, Pep Guardiola will hopefully give youngster Isaac Cuenca another chance in his starting line-up. We’ll have the team-sheets to confirm any issues but at just 4.5 and at home to BATE he could prove to be a handsome Matchday Six gamble.
Please note that deadline for your UEFA Fantasy Champions League team selection will be at 20:30 CET today. This will mean that, as pointed out in last week’s Survival Guide, European Fantasy Managers should have Tuesday’s team-sheets to work with before closing.
