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4 May 2012 783 comments
Andy Andy
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The penultimate Gameweek of the season kicks off tomorrow. After last week’s bumper double header, Fantasy managers are fast running out of time to make up their mini-league differences. The Captaincy armband is, more than ever, a vital choice…

A familiar name has run away with our poll thus far. Robin Van Persie will have surely claimed the armband more than any other player this season and yet, after a prolonged dry spell, confidence was beginning to wane. The tap-in at Stoke, coupled with a favourable fixture appears to have turned the tide back his way.

After scoring his first goal from open play in eight fixtures at the Britannia, the Arsenal skipper is back on track to win the Premier League golden boot and keep his side in check for third spot. A home game against a safe and stuttering Norwich outfit adds plenty of weight to the argument for Van Persie to be the top candidate.

With the Arsenal fixture being the sole Saturday match-up (an early kick-off thanks to tube works and the FA Cup Final) those who back Robin to build on his recent showing have the opportunity to get their Gameweek rolling early, although should the Dutchman fall flat, Sunday promises to be an uncomfortable experience.

With a proportion of Fantasy managers shedding Van Persie for double Gameweek temptations, there’s a tough decision to be made. While the Dutchman’s potential is strong, there’s clearly a differential to be had for those brave enough to look elsewhere.

Wayne Rooney is an obvious plan B. There’s a case to be made for United’s attacking players given their home fixture with Swansea and the need to attack to help close the goal difference on rivals City.

With Robert Mancini’s side kicking off early at Newcastle on Sunday, United will take to the Old Trafford pitch knowing the scale of their task. A win for City and it will be interesting to see how United react given that City will be eyeing up a home clash with QPR on the final day. Sir Alex Ferguson has played down the goal difference factor but, should City squeak a narrow win, then United will surely have to go for the throat against the Swans rather than write the title off.

Papiss Cisse and Nikica Jelavic rounds out a strong trio of striker alternatives to the Van Persie option. The latter looking the more viable route: the Croatian striker has brought a goalscoring zest that Everton fans have been craving for years and is up against a Wolves side with nothing but pride to play for. Everton goals look assured and that normally has Jelavic getting in on the act.

As for Cisse, he’ll face a City defence hell-bent on keeping him out to allow both Carlos Tevez and Sergio Aguero the chance to weave their magic. The Senegal striker looks almost impossible to stop right now, however, his strike at Chelsea demonstrating that he’s a threat from all angles. It would still be a brave decision to back Cisse over the top three poll candidates, given City’s determination and defensive resolve.

A risk might be a necessity at this stage, however, and while Cisse fits the bill there are clearly other candidates to consider. Incredibly, Victor Moses has demanded more transfer attention than any other player so far in the Gameweek. His form, coupled with Wigan’s own confidence and remaining fixtures, has seen him worked into over 50,000 squads so far this week. Moses would make an unlikely Gameweek captain but, for those desperate to go out on a limb, he’s clearly an option to explore.

Goals from midfield perhaps look more likely from Tottenham’s Rafael Van der Vaart and Fulham’s Clint Dempsey. Both have obliging Sunday fixtures. Van der Vaart goes to Villa Park having delivered on his double Gameweek promise and will surely carry the biggest goal threat to the home defence. Dempsey has stuttered since the return of Pavel Pogrebnyak but, similarly, will remain a major threat to a hopelessly erratic Sunderland back four.

While that pairing have struggled to make an impression in our poll, it’s perhaps even more surprising to see a lack of support for City’s strikers. City surely have to get three points at Newcastle and, in Aguero, they have a striker who has scored five goals in the last four, including three goals in his last two away trips. It seems certain that Mancini will have to look for a couple of goals from Sunday’s trip and Aguero looks well placed to be amongst them. While United’s attacking assets get the attention, perhaps City’s strikers could present the most viable alternative to Van Persie for those seeking something a little different.

Our Captain’s Poll will run and run in the middle menu of the Homepage to see where the lay of the land is as the deadline approaches.

Andy Leicester won the Premier League. Leicester. Premier League. What is this life? Follow them on Twitter

783 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Gatsby
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Richards > ____?

    have verm, caulker, evans, cahill

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    1. Call Me Old Fashioned
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      walker or kaboul

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    2. vishnu
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Verm.

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    3. jayzico
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      or baines if fit

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  2. FORCA INTER
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    my defence sucks so badly

    Turner,Caulker,Evans,Cahill and Kompany

    4pts hit for defender???does it worth it?

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    1. jayzico
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      i just took a hit for verm. so i hope so

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    2. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Not for me.

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    3. vishnu
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Yes.

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    1. udit
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      😆

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    2. Bad Pen
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Haha brilliant.

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    3. Spike ⚽️
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      😆

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    4. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Ahaa 😀

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  3. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    So my team for gw37:

    Bogdan
    mcauly huth turner
    bale barfa demps pienaar
    rvp rooney adebayor

    bench: mignolet siggy caulker evans

    SO my defense is ultra crap and i have 1FT, is it worth taking a 4 point hit for a defender/gk
    A: Mignolet >>> kenny?...dont know any other keeper for 4.4
    B: evans >>> gallas/hibbert and then take it mignolet next week
    C: turner >>> any defender upto 4.2?

    Pls help:)

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    1. LOCO ABREU
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      play bogdan. and B (gallas) imo.

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  4. LOCO ABREU
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Sorry for repost! Thinking in a -8hit to attack my league rivals. BALE>NANI, AGUERO>CHICO, EVANS>KABOUL.
    third transfer is needed to open a man united spot,(I also own Rooney). is a -4 but it gives me a good defender for the two finals GWs also.
    My Atack will be Rooney,CHICO and RVP!
    What you think please?too risky?

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    1. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I'll repost my lost reply too:

      I like it – aggressive. But if the City beat Newcastle you will definitely want Aguero back for the next gameweek (QPR) – would you be able to afford that?

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      1. LOCO ABREU
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        i can do it selling VDV instead of Bale.

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    2. Fackinell
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Bale - Nani is the week spot.
      Valencia will outscore Nani and his form is poor currently. Evans yes and Agro>Chico is good if you're chasing IMO

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      1. Hate that rotation
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Nani 2 goals in 3 games is pretty good form.

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        1. Fackinell
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Did you watch the games?
          I guess in fantasy terms it only matters what points you score so you're right - but he has more chance of having a stinker than double figures IMO.

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          1. Hate that rotation
            • 14 Years
            14 years, 2 months ago

            Yeah I watched the games. He looked pretty decent apart from the city game where everyone sucked.

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    3. JT's Dog
      14 years, 2 months ago

      i would repost my reply but i cant remember it and cant be bothered going back

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  5. JT's Dog
    14 years, 2 months ago

    damn you third muffin, stop looking at me

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    1. Fratboy
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      🙂

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    2. DaveZubie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      MMMmmmmm muffins *chomp* *chomp*

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  6. Merlinho
    • 17 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Why all the Chicarito love all of a sudden?

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    1. FORCA INTER
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      another crazy bandwagon

      maybe could payoff like with Tevez

      but i am not so sure

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    2. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Because he is almost certain to start and lead the line due to the Welbeck injury

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      1. Optimus.
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        could bite some if fergie goes with roo up top alone with young or nani behind..could happen

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          True. 4-3-3?

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    3. Hate that rotation
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Wellbeck out for Swansea game.

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    4. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Primark version of Rooney.

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      1. Goose
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        So like something bought from Primark, its good for one week.

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        1. Epic Fail
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Pretty much, but also expect to be disappointed.

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  7. Fackinell
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Got one response on this - any other thoughts?

    Really need help this week guy’s:

    Well ahead in mini league & trying to break in to top 100 over the next two weeks. 5 changes last week paid off in terms of NET points but clearly need to be more conservative this week.

    A. Krul – Vorm Cannot afford to change keepers so thinking Krul for save points?

    B. Terry – Hibbert – Simpson inj – J Evans out – Cahill out so thinking must tfr one Cahill for Kompany?

    C. Dempsey – Bale – Valencia – VDV – B’arfa sub – No changes I reckon OR one of the Tot players?

    D. RVP – Aguero – Jelavic Thinking RVP Captain – Is it worth swapping Agro for Roonpig?

    Money not an issue….

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    1. Nibbsy
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      A Krul
      B Yes I would make a tfr - Cahill seems like best for the chop
      C No changes
      D Tough one, Aguero has QPR next week so over the 2 weeks it may not be worth a hit

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      1. Fackinell
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks - was about to give up!

        Good point on Aguero. It's a coin flip.
        I think Rooney will score more over two games but will it be more than the 4 point hit?

        Thanks again...

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        1. Nibbsy
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Hard to call really. If your aim is higher overall rank though you have to take a risk I think, and Aguero is probably the bigger differential. It's make or break now so I'd probably stick with Aguero and pray.

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    2. Fackinell
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I'd stop posting this as no one seems to give a F**K

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  8. vishnu
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Schwarzer
    Walker Vermaelen Hibbert
    Nani VDV Pienaar Dempsey
    Cisse RVP (c) Jelavic (v)

    Bench
    Vorm Moses Cahill Evans

    Should I play Moses ahead of Cisse?

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    1. Fackinell
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

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    2. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Terrible decision to have to make. I hope you didn't bring in Moses this week.
      I'd play Cisse

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      1. vishnu
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Yes, unfortunately yes. Now I have a decision to make 🙁

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Very very silly

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          1. vishnu
            • 14 Years
            14 years, 2 months ago

            Yeah, but I actually did that to afford Nani. Didn't have the courage to go without a United cover this week.

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            1. Ryan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              14 years, 2 months ago

              Yeah I would have sold either Dempsey or cisse for your United cover. You always have to consider your bench. Anyway, good luck with your decision.

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              1. Kevin Twine
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                14 years, 2 months ago

                I'd play Cisse

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  9. keotes
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Which is better?

    A) Cisse -> Rooney
    B) Siggy -> Nani

    front 8:
    VDV, Bale, Valencia, Dempsey, Siggy,
    RVP, Jelavic, Cisse

    Cheers

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    1. Fackinell
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      A - by a country mile.
      You have Valencia and Nani is pants at the moment

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    2. ludi
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Cisse->Rooney and bench Siggy

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    3. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      B) is plain ridiculous as it means you would have to play 5 midfielders. So its A) for me, do consider Hernandez if you want a differential though

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      1. keotes
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Nothing wrong with Stacking midfield 😉

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          No there is something wrong with it. It means you will have to bench Cisse which is another terrible idea.

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    4. LarryMurphy
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Cisse to Rooney. Nani is one of those players...he's hot and cold, can play a stormer or can be completely ineffective i.e vs Manchester City so I'd go with Rooney..have a feeling he could play a blinder this weekend

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    5. vishnu
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I did B, I'm kinda regretting it.

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  10. ROBERTO MANKINI
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Worth taking a hit to dump JEvans for RFerdinand/ShawX/Kaboul?

    My current defenders are Vermaelen, JEvans, Enrique, Walker, Caulker. and last 4 are all either injured, out or have a hard fixture....

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    1. LarryMurphy
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I'm going to play J Evans and just let the autosub do it's job. You'd never know with Sir Alex

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  11. Touré De Force
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Hernandez starts, Rooney drops deeper. I don't have any hard statistical data to back this up, but I know I am right.

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    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      You are right in a general sense. However i suspect United will go all out attack so I don't think it will be the case this time around.

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    2. JT's Dog
      14 years, 2 months ago

      you are right, but question is will they keep that style needing so many goals

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      1. Hate that rotation
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Fergie said that catching city on goal difference is impossible.

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      2. Touré De Force
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        United are thinking about winning their last two games. End of. 1-0 from both those games would do them nicely I'd bet.

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          I doubt United will get all cagy. If they find themselves scoring for fun they won't lift their foot off the pedal. I'm sure they will continue to be eager for goals as the game progresses without being silly about it as they did in their massive 6-1 defeat to Citeh

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  12. Scroobius Mac
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    With the standard level of Moyes uncertainty regarding Baines anybody prepared to take the plunge or best avoided?

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    1. jayzico
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Im playing baines. Ive waited long enough for the differential paying off. that said he'll prob play a 10 min cameo

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      1. SneakyPete
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        he will start i m sure

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  13. Nibbsy
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    A Tevez - Rooney (no hit)
    B Tevez - RVP & Bale - Moses (-4)
    C Torres - RVP/Rooney & Bale - Moses (-4)

    Already have VDV so not too bothered about losing Bale. Think Moses could well outscore him anyway.

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    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldn't lose Bale for a hit, no chance.

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      1. Nibbsy
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        So A then?

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    2. Touré De Force
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I'm keeping Tevez. Don't know why one would drop him. Looked on top of his game against United. Aguero is probably the better option from City though. I plan to have both for 38.

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      1. Nibbsy
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Rooney has the better fixture this week though surely? I could then get Aguero in for Rooney next week.

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        1. Touré De Force
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Tevez +4 vs. Rooney. I dunno, I think that's tight.

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          1. Nibbsy
            • 15 Years
            14 years, 2 months ago

            Fair play. Chasing a 30 point lead. Maybe I should just save a transfer to go all out on differentials next week?

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    3. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Moses is not better than Bale

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      1. Nibbsy
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        No but he could score better in fantasy football this week, that's all I'm saying.

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  14. FORCA INTER
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    who will be top goalscorer this season??

    RVP or Rooney

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    1. Hate that rotation
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      RVP

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    2. tosey
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      u dont think suarez can still do it?

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      1. FORCA INTER
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        i am not drunk today 😀

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    3. Fackinell
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      RVP by one goal

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  15. Drogba "Unstoppable, U…
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    What happened to Walker?

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    1. Spike ⚽️
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      He's got a bruised toe but will play according to Sky Sport

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    2. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      toe injury but should be back after injected

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    3. Drogba "Unstoppable, U…
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks Guys
      Evans Out then...

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  16. Drip Doctor
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Utd forums are a dark place at the moment, they've all given up. Most of their predicted teams has Berbatov over Hernandez aswell...

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    1. FORCA INTER
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      if berba starts then i fancy UTD to goes crazy and score at least 5-6 goals against SWA

      can't say same for team with Chiko

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    2. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Chicharito scored at Liberty ?

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      1. Drip Doctor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        And? Berbatov scored 3 against Wigan and didn't play a minute against them in the 2nd game.

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    3. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I'd play Berbs over Hernandez too, but I don't see Fergie doing it.

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      1. Spike ⚽️
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        this

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    4. Spike ⚽️
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him involved or even start !!

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    5. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Hmm that is bizarre. TBF Berba is capable of big goal hauls. And United certainly need plenty of goals. The more pragmatic choice would be Hernandez though

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      1. Hate that rotation
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        We just need to win, goal difference is too much catch up. Hope for Newcastle to draw/win.

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          I think United will know the result before they play. No doubt this will have a bearing on how they play. They can't afford to relay on QPR causing an upset in GW38

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      2. Spike ⚽️
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        I think Berba can hold the ball up better but I think you maybe right about Chico 😉

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    6. Goose
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Please dont tempt me. (actually do)

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      1. Drip Doctor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        I wanted Hernandez, no idea what to do now, too many options as to what the Utd team could be.

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        1. Goose
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Hmm, id love to be brave enough to get Berba and then he starts, it would be glorious. If Fergie has any sense he'll start him.

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    7. udit
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Can't see it happening, might be good though. As to why they've given up is beyond me 😕

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  17. griff
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Narrowed it down to 3 potential moves for this week:

    JEvans-> Verm
    Bale -> Valencia
    Cisse -> RPV

    Which would you do, and would you do more than 1 for -4?

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    1. Scroobius Mac
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Not B.
      I dont mind either of the the other two - depends on the rest of you defence.

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      1. griff
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Defence looks a bit wanky- Kompany, Simpson, Warnock and Jose Enrique

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    2. manehi
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I'm doing Cisse -> RVP. Would also do Evans -> Verm for a hit if I could afford it.

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    3. Hay Number 2
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I did:

      Simpson>>>>Verm
      Cisse>>>>RVP

      So I say take a hit IMO.

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    4. Drogba "Unstoppable, U…
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      1st one i would do
      Goal potential + CS for Verm

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    5. Spike ⚽️
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      1 or 3 or both imo

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  18. OPTA FPL
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Siggy --> Piernaar worth 4p hit?

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    1. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      otherwise i can play and bench Siggy ( Play Sezz already)

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      1. OPTA FPL
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        * play Mc Clean

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    2. Touré De Force
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Have same dilemma, unsure what to do. Siggy gets 2 minimum, and I wouldn't bet against Swansea scoring at Old T either.

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  19. Hay Number 2
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Hi gents,

    My defence is currently:

    Verm Walker Evans (Turner) (Caulker)

    I have already taken -4 to get verm in what should I do:

    a) Play Turner/Caulker if so which?
    b) Take another hit

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    1. unoaime
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Honestly i'd just play Turner. I don't expect many cleansheets at all in these last 2 games and for me it's about stocking up with defenders with likely attacking returns or just make sure you can field 3.

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      1. Hay Number 2
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers dude! I was leaning that way!

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  20. jimski
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    I need 5 (FIVE) good reasons that Cisse is no longer necessary. Please, guys, help me feel good about shipping him for an RVP, Rooney, Jelly combo....

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    1. tosey
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      5 good reasons?

      hart, kompany, clichy, zabaleta, lescott

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      1. BootlegRascal
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        He said good reasons. That's only 4

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      2. jimski
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Heh 🙂

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    2. Goose
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      1. If you and everyone else gets rid then i dont lose out by not having him when he inevitably scores.

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    3. Touré De Force
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I did Cissé >>> KDavies. I think City will keep us scoreless at St. James.

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      1. Scroobius Mac
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Seriously?

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    4. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      RVP and Jelly have good fixtures last 2 games

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    5. udit
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      1).He's crazy
      2).He picks up red cards for fun
      3).Tough fixtures
      4).All the fans hate him
      5).He has an extremely annoying name.

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    6. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      He scores when he wants, but he probably doesn't want to score this week.

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    7. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      1. He can't score against good teams, his fixtures are just tooo tough
      2. City are soo much better than Newcastle and their defense is just the best
      3. Newcastle are really just an average team and they will be found out against a star studded city
      4. Cisse really isn't that good
      5. And because Cisse isn't that good he will probably be benched anyway 😉

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      1. udit
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        😯 I hope you're trolling because not one of those points is valid.

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Sarcasm Udit 😉

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      2. jimski
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        You're not helping 😉

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  21. Sir_Dunc
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Cahill? Are we thinkin he'll be starting gentlemen?

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    1. Touré De Force
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Which one? 😛

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      1. Sir_Dunc
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Gary "I'm at a big club now" Cahill.

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        1. udit
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          No, he;s prob out for the season.

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    2. udit
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Which one?

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    3. Spike ⚽️
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Cahill and Luiz not starting according to Sky Sports News

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  22. tangtastic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Didn't realise the Arsenal game was the only fixture on Saturday.. early fixture too.

    Suddenly I'm rethinking my armband selection.. can someone please convince me that the early fixture curse myth, is just a myth?

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    1. Touré De Force
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      It's a myth.

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    2. tosey
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      rvp v chelsea sat 12.45
      rvp v blackburn sat 12.45

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      1. Connor's Calling
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        you going RvP or Rooney Tosey?

        (shh Fratboy)

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        1. tosey
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          rvp

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        2. Fratboy
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          haha 🙂

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    3. Hate that rotation
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Check RVPs scores for early kick offs:

      Blackburn
      Chelsea
      Norwich
      And some more

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    4. Call Me Old Fashioned
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      It is bollocks

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    5. Elniñorules
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Both of RVP's hat-tricks were in early fixture KOs.

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    6. tangtastic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers guys. Can't believe I'm being this superstitious. Squeaky bum time.

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    7. the Penman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I've only captained RVP in an early fixture once.

      He score 20 points (to give me 40) and Arsenal scored 7.

      Your call.

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  23. Drip Doctor
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    GW38 it has to be Rooney RVP Aguero right?

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    1. Goose
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Probably. Im captaing Moses tho.

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      1. Goose
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        *captaining

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        1. champoz
          • 17 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          holy moses!

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          1. Goose
            • 16 Years
            14 years, 2 months ago

            Gotta be done, i have nothing to play for (like us in the league) and their playing Wolves.

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            1. champoz
              • 17 Years
              14 years, 2 months ago

              Go out on a punt. Good a plan as any.

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    2. The Finnisher
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Not sure about Rooney - when was the last time he scored away? 2 months or so

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    3. Spike ⚽️
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Torres ??

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  24. James
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    From the previous post, in response to a question regarding use of odds to determine statistical advantage in terms of expected points:

    For each of the 1 goal, 2 goal and 3 goal scenarios, I adjusted the odds as follows (e.g. for RVP).

    His chance of scoring AT LEAST 1 goal is 15/23 (66%). But this will include the probability of him scoring 2 goals, 3 goals, 4 goals etc. I assumed in my analysis that the odds you quoted for 2 goals were for 2 OR MORE goals, i.e. if he scored 3 goals, the bet for 2 goals would pay out – if this is not the case then Id have to adjust the calc accordingly.

    So, RVP chance of scoring EXACTLY one goal is 15/23 – 1/3 (32%). Similarly, his chance of scoring EXACTLY 2 goals is 1/3 – 1/9 (22%). I took the chance of EXACTLY 3 goals to be 1/9 (11%). I multiplied these three outcomes by 4, 8 and 12 respectively (ignoring altogether the possibility of scoring 4 or more goals) to deduce that RVP’s expected points (from goals alone) is 4.39.

    For Cisse, the same calculation gives 2.22.

    I had an error, which Ive sicne corrected, so that the “anomaly” that I described earlier (RVP chances of 1 goal being less than his chance of 2 goals) is gone.

    Im reasonably confident that the calc is correct, but of coruse it ignores assists and bonus points.

    What do you think?

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    1. Drogba "Unstoppable, U…
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I think my maths is awful... 🙁

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    2. Hay Number 2
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I don't think that the laws of probability can be rationalised so simply given the massive amounts of variables.

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    3. Elniñorules
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Very sound calculation.

      So if you trust the bookies, Cisse > RVP isn't worth a hit.

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      1. stilicho
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Trusting bookies to offer odds that will make them a profit is fine, trusting bookies to offer odds that reflect the actual probability of events occurring is a mistake.

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        1. James
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          If we ignore the profit margin (since its present in all odds, even if unequally), then the odds DO represent, in some way at least, the chances of the outcomes occuring. Unlikelier events are given greater odds, for instance.

          The shortcoming in terms of the multitude of ignored variables probably outweighs the problems with using bookies odds. At elast this is a leading indicator as opposed to using one of the following more flawed methods of rationalising: kick off time, how the player performed against the opponent in seasons past, or reverse fixtures, ICT or PPI index.

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          1. stilicho
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            14 years, 2 months ago

            If bookies' odds represent the probabilities of outcomes, then it logically follows that Rooney's chances of scoring depend on how much money people have, or are likely to, bet on him.

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            1. James
              • 16 Years
              14 years, 2 months ago

              Given that we cannot actually derive a true probability of Rooney scoring, who is to say that the sum total of all better's opinions isnt a worthwhile place to start?

              Your argument is similar to saying that the fortunes of a company would depend on how many people buy shares (given how the share price moves in response to buying and selling decisions), when in actual fact its the other way around.

              So I would argue that Rooney's chances of scoring dont depend on how much money people have bet on him, but the amount of money bet on him (and hence the odds) depends on his chances of scoring.

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              1. stilicho
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 15 Years
                14 years, 2 months ago

                "Your argument is similar to saying that the fortunes of a company would depend on how many people buy shares (given how the share price moves in response to buying and selling decisions), when in actual fact its the other way around."

                This isn't my argument, I presented it as an extrapolation of your argument.

                "but the amount of money bet on him (and hence the odds) depends on his chances of scoring."

                In a perfectly rational world yes, but human beings are irrational - gamblers even more so than most.

                The purpose of the odds is to ensure the bookie makes a profit, not to predict outcomes. When they have a lot of exposure to popular, well known players like Rooney they shorten the odds, when they want to encourage betting on less well known players they increase the odds, in neither case are the odds an accurate reflection of the true probability. I suppose that somewhere in the middle (reasonably well known players) the bookies' odds approximate fairly well to well to whatever the true probability is - but at the top and bottom of the scale it's total hokum, and it's these odds that you're working with here.

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                1. James
                  • 16 Years
                  14 years, 2 months ago

                  So I guess what we would need to do is estimate the kind of bias that bookies load into the odds? Doable, but it all gets a little spurious.

                  Dont the odds change in response to betting behaviour? Id have thought that the odds would then at least converge on the (consensus) probability.

                  Human beings are irrational in almost all spheres of life, including their investing behaviour on stock markets. Yet its not too inaccurate to presume that, at any given time, the share price does approximate the actual value of a share.

                  My argument is that betting behaviour is based on peoples' opinions of someone scoring; that the chances of someone scoring are not dependent on their odds.

                  When you ask someone on this site whether a 4pt hit is worthwhile, they will make some assessment of what pointage each player is likely to get, and base their decision on that. Here, Im just using far more people's opinions and thereby arriving at what is hopeful a more accurate (but inaccurate) answer.

                  Surely it cant be worse than going on Joe Soaps opinion on whether Cisse->RVP is worth a hit??

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                  1. stilicho
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 15 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    "Surely it cant be worse than going on Joe Soaps opinion on whether Cisse->RVP is worth a hit??"

                    That's a fair point, and it's clearly even more irrational to make a decision on that basis than it is to look at the odds, but once you start expressing things in terms of odds and probabilities you clothe irrationality in a veneer of scientific respectability, the other reponses to your post seem to credulously accept everything you said as scientific fact, and it's that induced made me pipe up.

                    I'm not sure that the stock market comparison is entirely valid for the purposes of a one off bet on a one off occurrance. People betting on Rooney aren't buying a share in him, they can't collude and create a speculative bubble, they would gain more by fewer other people seeing him as an asset, which strikes me as the reverse of how stock market profiteering works most of the time.

                    I don't think it's unreasonable to take bookies' odds as a starting point, as you say, with the proviso that where the odds are very short the probability is probably a bit longer, and where odds are very long the probability is likely to be a bit shorter, but ultimately those odds are based only on the opinions of a demonstrably irrational subset of the people who have an opinion i.e. those who are willing to fund a collossally profitable gambling industry out of their income.

                    700 million in tax recepts per year from gambling in the UK, I don't what that equates to in terms of the gross income of gambling companies, but it's certainly a huge figure, and it certainly demonstrates that the gamblers who are influencing these odds don't know what the hell they're on about.

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                2. James
                  • 16 Years
                  14 years, 2 months ago

                  And what you have stated is not a logical conclusion at all.

                  I say that the share price reflects the profit prospects of the company in question. You say that this logically means that the profits of the company depend on the share price.

                  Thats not a logical conclusion at all.

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                  1. stilicho
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 15 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    For reasons in my post above I don't think the stock market analogy works in this instance either way. The point I was trying to make is that at one point in time the odds of Rooney scoring are X, ten minutes later a rich idiot dumps a ton of cash on Rooney scoring, the bookie then shortens the odds on Rooney to avoid further exposure. Does the act of a rich idiot placing a bet make Rooney more likely to score? If you trust the odds as an approximation of the probability, you would have to say yes.

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                  2. stilicho
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 15 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    Essentially I think the stock market analogy doesn't work because investing in a company can change its prospects in real terms, betting on a football player cannot effect his prospects in real terms.

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                  3. stilicho
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 15 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    Anyway, this makes a nice change from the standard RMT stuff on here.

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                  4. James
                    • 16 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    Stock markets reflect prices paid in a secondary market, and dont have too big an impact on the financial prospects of a company (unless that company wanted to raise more share capital through a further share issue). Companies dont try to increase their share prices so that they will perform better - they perform better to improve their share prices.

                    Odds dont just reflect the whims of millionnaires, which I agree serve to distort things. In light of the odds being shorted (to beyond what other betters think it reasonable), surely people will start to lay the bet instead, thereby offsetting the action of the rich inevstor?

                    At the end of the day, I will concede that use of odds is fraught with problems. But I will not agree that using one individual's opinion is any better. People no here often give replies based on who they have in their team, for instance, and gut feel. I am a fan of summing up the gut feelings to get soemthing a little more accurate 🙂

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                  5. James
                    • 16 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    And yes, it has made for a nice change 🙂

                    If anything the odds on RVP being shortened (away from "reality") would strengthen the argument that Cisse->RVP isnt worth the 4pt hit, would it not? i.e. that RVP isnt actually as likely to score as the odds suggest, therefore his expected output is lower than that derived using the odds.

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                  6. stilicho
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 15 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    The fact still remains: investment in a company can affect its prospects, betting on a footballer cannot.

                    Ultimately if odds are an approximate reflection of true probabilities then gambling companies would approximately break even, in reality they make massive and steady profits, that alone demonstrates the massive and steady gulf between odds and real probabilities.

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                  7. stilicho
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 15 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    "If anything the odds on RVP being shortened (away from “reality”) would strengthen the argument that Cisse->RVP isnt worth the 4pt hit, would it not? i.e. that RVP isnt actually as likely to score as the odds suggest, therefore his expected output is lower than that derived using the odds."

                    Yes! I think. My brain is about to melt 🙂

                    It's been nice talking to you though, you're clearly a smart guy and I enjoyed thrashing out this stuff. Your post was definitely more useful and considered than the vast majority on here, and on that basis I feel a bit of an idiot for deciding to have a go.

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                  8. James
                    • 16 Years
                    14 years, 2 months ago

                    Pls, have a go! It would be meaningless if it wasnt challenged. I feel more informed having had the chat with you, and that is great 🙂

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      2. James
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Something like that.

        I am not saying I agree with the odds. This was just in response to someone else's calculation - the two of us got sucked into the stats of it all 🙂

        I think the bonus points may swing it, since there are far more candidates in the Newc City game (even if Cisse scores) than in the Arsenal game.

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    4. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Glover might have something to say about that

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    5. stilicho
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      There's a fundamental problem with using bookies' odds in this way, in that they are not intended to represent the odds of something happening, they're a calculation based as much on predicting human irrationality and ensuring that bookies make a profit from that irrationality.

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    6. Will - Fantasy Football Hub
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Hi James, you still there? This is very impressive.. see my post on the last article!

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      1. James
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks.

        I spend all day working on spreadsheets and such (Im an actuary), so I do love me a number-based (or stats-based) problem 🙂

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  25. Lor10
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    I need help:

    Have a 12p lead in my ML, and I want to make a defensive move to neutralize my opponents Vermaelen.

    Should I bring in Vermaelen for a 4p-hit, or choose Koscielny without a hit?

    Is my Vermaelen-fear rational?

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    1. unoaime
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      If you get Verm and he doesn't score, you've made it easier for your opponent to catch up to you with his other players.

      If you don't get him and he scores, your opponent could be close to equal your score.

      For me, it's more likely he doesn't score than does score so i'd just neutralize the cleansheet possibility by getting Koscielny and hope for the best.

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      1. Lor10
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        I agree, thank you very much!

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  26. Hay Number 2
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Rate my team:

    Krul (Vorm)
    Vermaelen Walker Turner (Caulker) (Evans)
    Valencia Bale Dempsey Pienaar (Siggy)
    Jelavic Rooney RVP (C)

    Thank you¬!

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    1. Elniñorules
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Let the war begin, comrade!

      THIS IS SPARTA!!!!!!

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      1. Hay Number 2
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        What is your points total at the moment? Plus have you taken any hits this week 🙂

        Strength and honour

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      2. Spike ⚽️
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Good team and geat ranking. Your biggest problem will be who to bench other than Evans !!

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        1. Hay Number 2
          • 14 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          Siggy and Caulker....I am banking on a United Back lash! 🙂

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    2. unoaime
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Great team.

      What do you plan to do next week?

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      1. Hay Number 2
        • 14 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        Depends on the results from this week, may load up on city players!

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    3. Phaze 1
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      6/10

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  27. SaintMatt
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Reem or Kelly or another 4.1 defender for this gw?

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  28. jayzico
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    cisse > hernandez for a hit. Crazy?

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    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Yes crazy

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      1. jayzico
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        cheers mate. I'll hold off

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  29. The Stock
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 2 months ago

    Right.

    A) Ade=====> RVP

    or

    B) Cisse + Ben Arfa=======> RVP & Moses

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    1. unoaime
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      I like B.

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      1. Fratboy
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 2 months ago

        as do I.

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        1. champoz
          • 17 Years
          14 years, 2 months ago

          You live again in the Cup Fratboy. Good luck mate 🙂

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    2. champoz
      • 17 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah B has got more bite.

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    3. Spike ⚽️
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      B because it gives you better options for GW38 as well

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    4. Pratik
      • 17 Years
      14 years, 2 months ago

      b) for sure

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